NBA 2025-2026: Memphis Grizzlies vs Chicago Bulls: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Memphis Grizzlies
Home Team
61.8%
VS
Chicago Bulls
Away Team
38.2%
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Set it upStarting Five Matchup
PG
Javon Small
OR
108.2
DR
121.5
PTS
9.3
VS
Josh Giddey
OR
111.4
DR
116.8
PTS
17.4
SG
Cedric Coward
OR
115.5
DR
117.5
PTS
13.3
VS
Tre Jones
OR
128.8
DR
117.8
PTS
13.1
SF
GG Jackson II
OR
101.7
DR
102.3
PTS
12.0
VS
Isaac Okoro
OR
114.4
DR
121.0
PTS
9.3
PF
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
OR
111.3
DR
118.7
PTS
9.5
VS
Matas Buzelis
OR
109.1
DR
117.1
PTS
16.2
C
Taylor Hendricks
OR
105.7
DR
120.0
PTS
10.6
VS
Lachlan Olbrich
OR
95.1
DR
121.4
PTS
1.4
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Memphis Grizzlies are the pick to win (61.8% probability).
Expected starting five — Memphis: Javon Small, Cedric Coward, GG Jackson II, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Taylor Hendricks; Chicago: Josh Giddey, Tre Jones, Isaac Okoro, Matas Buzelis, Lachlan Olbrich.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The expected combined total is 241.81, pointing to a fast, high-scoring game where both offenses can push the pace. The projected spread (Home - Away) is 1.97, a razor-thin ~2-point edge for the home team, so this should be a close contest where small swings matter.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
241.8
Most likely outcome: 242 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Memphis Grizzlies - Chicago Bulls)
2.0
Most likely outcome: 1 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Both teams are sliding: Memphis has dropped from 1359.6 to 1341.9 (-17.7) while Chicago is roughly flat, moving from 1401.1 to 1399.5 (-1.6).
Memphis Grizzlies
1341.9
-17.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | Houston Rockets | 1341.9 | -5.4 |
| 2026-03-25 | San Antonio Spurs | 1347.3 | -2.6 |
| 2026-03-23 | Atlanta Hawks | 1349.9 | -5.4 |
| 2026-03-21 | Charlotte Hornets | 1355.3 | -4.3 |
| 2026-03-20 | Boston Celtics | 1359.6 | — |
Chicago Bulls
1399.5
-1.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1399.5 | -2.9 |
| 2026-03-25 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1402.4 | -7.4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Houston Rockets | 1409.8 | +13.8 |
| 2026-03-19 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1396.0 | -5.1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Toronto Raptors | 1401.1 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Memphis Grizzlies
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | 109 | 119 | -10 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 98 | 123 | -25 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 107 | 146 | -39 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 101 | 124 | -23 | |
| Boston Celtics | 112 | 117 | -5 |
Chicago Bulls
1-4 in last 5
L
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 113 | 131 | -18 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 137 | 157 | -20 | |
| Houston Rockets | 132 | 124 | +8 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 110 | 115 | -5 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 109 | 139 | -30 |
Game Analysis
Memphis enters on a three-game skid (losses 109-119, 98-123, 107-146) with opponents routinely breaking the century mark, signaling defensive breakdowns in recent outings. Chicago is 1-2 over its last three (loss 113-131, loss 137-157, win 132-124), trading blows in high-scoring affairs; they’ve shown they can put up points but have also allowed big totals.
Looking at the expected fives, Memphis’s group averages an offensive rating of 108.48, defensive rating of 116.00, and 10.94 average points made; Chicago’s projected five average an offensive rating of 111.76, defensive rating of 118.82, and 11.48 average points made. That implies Chicago has a slight offensive edge, but Memphis’s starters display the better collective defensive rating — a possible deciding factor if Memphis can tighten up late and limit big nights from Josh Giddey and Tre Jones.
Final Prediction
Memphis gets the nod because its starting five profile shows the stronger team defense and the projection favors them despite recent losses. Key factor to watch: whether Memphis can contain Chicago’s primary creators (Giddey and Tre Jones) in a game expected to be decided by a couple of points.
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