NBA 2025-2026: New Orleans Pelicans vs Houston Rockets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

New Orleans Pelicans

Home Team
41.0%
VS

Houston Rockets

Away Team
59.0%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Dejounte Murray
OR
110.9
DR
115.2
PTS
17.2
VS
Reed Sheppard
OR
116.2
DR
112.5
PTS
13.5
SG
Herbert Jones
OR
103.7
DR
116.9
PTS
9.0
VS
Amen Thompson
OR
123.5
DR
114.2
PTS
17.9
SF
Saddiq Bey
OR
121.1
DR
120.8
PTS
17.4
VS
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
121.8
DR
114.7
PTS
15.5
PF
Trey Murphy III
OR
121.7
DR
119.0
PTS
21.7
VS
Kevin Durant
OR
124.6
DR
115.1
PTS
26.0
C
Zion Williamson
OR
126.2
DR
118.4
PTS
21.4
VS
Alperen Şengün
OR
115.1
DR
112.0
PTS
20.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Houston Rockets are projected to win (59.0% probability). Expected starting five — New Orleans Pelicans: Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson. Expected starting five — Houston Rockets: Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 229.35 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and a solid pace on both ends. The expected spread is -0.65 (Home - Away), meaning the away team holds a sliver of the edge — a margin so small it essentially signals an even matchup with a tiny advantage to the visitor.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 229.3 Most likely outcome: 229 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New Orleans Pelicans - Houston Rockets) -0.7 Most likely outcome: -1 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams show falling momentum recently, with New Orleans sliding more sharply than Houston.

New Orleans Pelicans

1436.4 -24.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-27 Toronto Raptors 1436.4 -7.6
2026-03-26 Detroit Pistons 1444.0 -5.3
2026-03-24 New York Knicks 1449.3 -5.1
2026-03-21 Cleveland Cavaliers 1454.4 -6.5
2026-03-19 Los Angeles Clippers 1460.9 —

Houston Rockets

1548.4 -8.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-27 Memphis Grizzlies 1548.4 +5.4
2026-03-25 Minnesota Timberwolves 1543.0 -8.2
2026-03-23 Chicago Bulls 1551.2 -13.9
2026-03-21 Miami Heat 1565.1 +8.4
2026-03-20 Atlanta Hawks 1556.7 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

New Orleans Pelicans

1-4 in last 5
L L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Toronto Raptors 106 119 -13
Detroit Pistons 108 129 -21
New York Knicks 116 121 -5
Cleveland Cavaliers 106 111 -5
Los Angeles Clippers 105 99 +6

Houston Rockets

3-2 in last 5
W L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Memphis Grizzlies 119 109 +10
Minnesota Timberwolves 108 110 -2
Chicago Bulls 124 132 -8
Miami Heat 123 122 +1
Atlanta Hawks 117 95 +22

Game Analysis

New Orleans arrives in a rough patch, losers of their last three: 106-119 at Toronto, 108-129 vs Detroit, and 116-121 vs New York. That stretch reflects struggles on both ends and a drop in team power rating from 1460.9 to 1436.4. Houston is 1-2 over the same span but beat Memphis 119-109 and had two close losses (108-110 and 124-132), with a more stable power rating around the mid-1540s. Looking at the projected fives, New Orleans’ starters average an offensive rating of 116.72, defensive rating of 118.06, and 17.34 points made per player. Houston’s projected starters average a higher offensive rating at 120.24, a cleaner defensive rating at 113.70, and 18.66 points made per player. Those gaps — especially on defense and overall offense — help explain the Rockets’ edge; Houston’s group combines higher offensive efficiency and better team defense on paper.

Final Prediction

The Rockets’ blend of offensive firepower and cleaner defensive numbers gives them the nod despite a nearly toss-up spread. Watch how Houston tries to limit Zion Williamson (21.4 PPG, 126.2 offensive rating); his effectiveness will be a key determinant.

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