NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Lakers vs Washington Wizards: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Los Angeles Lakers

Home Team
90.0%
VS

Washington Wizards

Away Team
10.0%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Austin Reaves
OR
123.1
DR
117.4
PTS
23.6
VS
Bub Carrington
OR
107.1
DR
124.8
PTS
10.3
SG
LeBron James
OR
118.4
DR
116.6
PTS
20.9
VS
Tre Johnson
OR
104.2
DR
124.1
PTS
12.3
SF
Jake LaRavia
OR
114.0
DR
116.1
PTS
8.3
VS
Bilal Coulibaly
OR
107.3
DR
119.7
PTS
11.3
PF
Rui Hachimura
OR
116.8
DR
119.9
PTS
11.1
VS
Will Riley
OR
107.0
DR
124.6
PTS
9.4
C
Deandre Ayton
OR
125.3
DR
114.8
PTS
12.3
VS
Alex Sarr
OR
108.0
DR
117.1
PTS
16.3
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The Los Angeles Lakers are projected to win (90.0% probability). Expected starting five — Los Angeles Lakers: Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Jake LaRavia, Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton. Washington Wizards: Bub Carrington, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, Will Riley, Alex Sarr.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 235.38 points, signaling a relatively high-scoring game and a brisk offensive pace from both teams. The expected spread is 10.75 in favor of the home team, giving the Lakers a sizable advantage and suggesting a double-digit win.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 235.4 Most likely outcome: 235 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Lakers - Washington Wizards) 10.8 Most likely outcome: 10 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Los Angeles’s rating trend is rising while Washington’s trend is effectively stable over the last five games.

Los Angeles Lakers

1612.9 +5.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-27 Brooklyn Nets 1612.9 +2.6
2026-03-25 Indiana Pacers 1610.3 +2.9
2026-03-23 Detroit Pistons 1607.4 -8.7
2026-03-21 Orlando Magic 1616.1 +8.2
2026-03-19 Miami Heat 1607.9 —

Washington Wizards

1301.7 -0.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-29 Portland Trail Blazers 1301.7 -5.6
2026-03-27 Golden State Warriors 1307.3 -5.3
2026-03-25 Utah Jazz 1312.6 +13.7
2026-03-22 New York Knicks 1298.9 -2.9
2026-03-21 Oklahoma City Thunder 1301.8 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 in last 5
W W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Brooklyn Nets 116 99 +17
Indiana Pacers 137 130 +7
Detroit Pistons 110 113 -3
Orlando Magic 105 104 +1
Miami Heat 134 126 +8

Washington Wizards

1-4 in last 5
L L W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Portland Trail Blazers 88 123 -35
Golden State Warriors 126 131 -5
Utah Jazz 133 110 +23
New York Knicks 113 145 -32
Oklahoma City Thunder 111 132 -21

Game Analysis

The Lakers are 2-1 in their last three games with wins over Brooklyn (116-99) and Indiana (137-130) and a close loss at Detroit (110-113). Those results show the Lakers can both score in bunches and close out games defensively at times. The Wizards are 1-2, dropping to Portland (88-123) and Golden State (126-131) before a big win over Utah (133-110), which points to uneven play on both ends. Looking at the expected starters, Los Angeles’s five average an offensive rating of 119.52, a defensive rating of 116.96, and 15.24 average points made per starter — a balanced, efficient group. Washington’s projected starting five average an offensive rating of 106.72, a defensive rating of 122.06, and 11.92 points made per starter — indicating struggles on offense and issues stopping opponents. Those gaps in efficiency and scoring from the starters favor the Lakers controlling tempo and scoring opportunities.

Final Prediction

The Lakers’ edge comes from clear offensive and defensive rating advantages among their starters and steadier recent results. Key factor to watch: whether Washington can limit Los Angeles’s scoring efficiency, especially from Austin Reaves and Deandre Ayton.

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