NBA 2025-2026: Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Miami Heat

Home Team
67.8%
VS

Philadelphia 76ers

Away Team
32.2%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Davion Mitchell
OR
120.7
DR
115.7
PTS
9.0
VS
Tyrese Maxey
OR
121.3
DR
115.3
PTS
28.9
SG
Pelle Larsson
OR
118.6
DR
116.9
PTS
11.0
VS
VJ Edgecombe
OR
113.4
DR
116.5
PTS
16.1
SF
Tyler Herro
OR
118.2
DR
118.9
PTS
21.2
VS
Dominick Barlow
OR
124.4
DR
116.2
PTS
8.0
PF
Andrew Wiggins
OR
117.1
DR
113.7
PTS
15.6
VS
Paul George
OR
112.3
DR
112.0
PTS
16.7
C
Bam Adebayo
OR
113.4
DR
111.0
PTS
20.1
VS
Joel Embiid
OR
118.7
DR
114.8
PTS
26.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Miami Heat are projected to win (67.8% probability). Expected starting five — Miami Heat: Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo; Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Dominick Barlow, Paul George, Joel Embiid.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects 248.9 combined points, pointing to a fast-paced, high-scoring game where both teams are likely to push the tempo. The expected spread is Home - Away = 4.2, which gives a modest 4.2-point advantage to the home side.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 248.9 Most likely outcome: 249 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Miami Heat - Philadelphia 76ers) 4.2 Most likely outcome: 4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Miami’s power rating has declined over the last five games (down 16.9), while Philadelphia’s has risen (up 19.5).

Miami Heat

1503.3 -16.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-29 Indiana Pacers 1503.3 -16.0
2026-03-27 Cleveland Cavaliers 1519.3 -8.8
2026-03-25 Cleveland Cavaliers 1528.1 +14.4
2026-03-23 San Antonio Spurs 1513.7 -6.5
2026-03-21 Houston Rockets 1520.2 —

Philadelphia 76ers

1527.7 +19.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-28 Charlotte Hornets 1527.7 +12.2
2026-03-25 Chicago Bulls 1515.5 +7.4
2026-03-23 Oklahoma City Thunder 1508.1 -6.2
2026-03-21 Utah Jazz 1514.3 +6.1
2026-03-19 Sacramento Kings 1508.2 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Miami Heat

1-4 in last 5
L L W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Indiana Pacers 118 135 -17
Cleveland Cavaliers 128 149 -21
Cleveland Cavaliers 120 103 +17
San Antonio Spurs 111 136 -25
Houston Rockets 122 123 -1

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 in last 5
W W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Charlotte Hornets 118 114 +4
Chicago Bulls 157 137 +20
Oklahoma City Thunder 103 123 -20
Utah Jazz 126 116 +10
Sacramento Kings 139 118 +21

Game Analysis

Miami is 1-2 across its last three outings, dropping 118-135 to Indiana and 128-149 to Cleveland, but recovering for a 120-103 win over Cleveland two games earlier; those results show they can struggle defensively but also clamp down when they control the game. Philadelphia is 2-1 in its last three, beating Charlotte 118-114 and exploding for 157-137 over Chicago before a 103-123 loss to Oklahoma City, indicating they can score in volume but have occasional defensive lapses. Looking at the expected fives, Miami’s starters average an offensive rating of 117.6, defensive rating of 115.24, and 15.38 points made per starter; Philadelphia’s starters average an offensive rating of 118.02, defensive rating of 114.96, and 19.32 points made per starter. Philly’s starting five profile slightly higher on scoring, but Miami’s core (Tyler Herro 21.2 and Bam Adebayo 20.1 average points) can swing the game if they limit runaway quarters.

Final Prediction

Miami’s edge comes from a balanced starting group that can flip between scoring and defense in a single game, and the projection favors them despite Philadelphia’s recent rise. Key factor to watch: how Miami contains Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey early — if they slow Philly’s scoring bursts, the Heat should pull away.

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