NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Chicago Bulls: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
83.6%
VS

Chicago Bulls

Away Team
16.4%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.8
DR
112.9
PTS
18.8
VS
Josh Giddey
OR
111.6
DR
116.5
PTS
17.4
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
116.6
DR
111.2
PTS
16.5
VS
Tre Jones
OR
128.4
DR
117.7
PTS
13.2
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
118.2
DR
113.6
PTS
14.2
VS
Isaac Okoro
OR
113.8
DR
120.9
PTS
9.2
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
117.4
DR
111.4
PTS
11.1
VS
Matas Buzelis
OR
109.1
DR
116.9
PTS
16.4
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
119.0
DR
98.9
PTS
24.2
VS
Nick Richards
OR
105.2
DR
115.8
PTS
9.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are projected to win (83.6% probability). Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama; Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey, Tre Jones, Isaac Okoro, Matas Buzelis, Nick Richards

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 233.61 points, pointing to a high-scoring, up-tempo game. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 15.17, favoring the home side and giving a large cushion to the Spurs in this projection.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 233.6 Most likely outcome: 233 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Chicago Bulls) 15.2 Most likely outcome: 15 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio’s power rating is rising (up 14.2 over five games) while Chicago’s is sliding (down 7.0 over five games).

San Antonio Spurs

1715.6 +14.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-28 Milwaukee Bucks 1715.6 +3.7
2026-03-25 Memphis Grizzlies 1711.9 +2.6
2026-03-23 Miami Heat 1709.3 +6.5
2026-03-21 Indiana Pacers 1702.8 +1.4
2026-03-19 Phoenix Suns 1701.4 —

Chicago Bulls

1389.0 -7.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-28 Memphis Grizzlies 1389.0 -10.5
2026-03-27 Oklahoma City Thunder 1399.5 -2.9
2026-03-25 Philadelphia 76ers 1402.4 -7.4
2026-03-23 Houston Rockets 1409.8 +13.8
2026-03-19 Cleveland Cavaliers 1396.0 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Milwaukee Bucks 127 95 +32
Memphis Grizzlies 123 98 +25
Miami Heat 136 111 +25
Indiana Pacers 134 119 +15
Phoenix Suns 101 100 +1

Chicago Bulls

1-4 in last 5
L L L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Memphis Grizzlies 124 125 -1
Oklahoma City Thunder 113 131 -18
Philadelphia 76ers 137 157 -20
Houston Rockets 132 124 +8
Cleveland Cavaliers 110 115 -5

Game Analysis

San Antonio comes in on a three-game winning streak with decisive wins: 127-95, 123-98 and 136-111, showing both offensive firepower and defensive control. Chicago is on a three-game skid, losing 124-125, 113-131 and 137-157, with recent games featuring defensive breakdowns and difficulty stopping high-scoring opponents. Momentum heavily favors San Antonio. Looking at the projected starters, San Antonio’s five average an offensive rating of 118.0 and a defensive rating of 109.6, with an average points-made of about 17.0 per starter; Victor Wembanyama’s 24.2 points and 98.9 defensive rating anchor that group. Chicago’s expected five average an offensive rating of 113.62, a defensive rating of 117.56, and about 13.1 points per starter; Tre Jones (128.4 offensive rating) is a bright spot, but the Bulls’ overall defensive numbers lag behind.

Final Prediction

The Spurs’ combination of rising form, superior team defense, and a 24.2-point-per-game lead from Wembanyama explains the large edge. Key factor to watch: how Chicago defends Wembanyama and whether they can limit San Antonio’s high-efficiency offense.

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