NBA 2025-2026: Utah Jazz vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Utah Jazz

Home Team
15.3%
VS

Cleveland Cavaliers

Away Team
84.7%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Cody Williams
OR
98.7
DR
124.4
PTS
7.8
VS
James Harden
OR
126.8
DR
117.4
PTS
20.8
SG
Elijah Harkless
OR
104.8
DR
122.1
PTS
6.8
VS
Donovan Mitchell
OR
120.6
DR
115.5
PTS
27.9
SF
Ace Bailey
OR
106.1
DR
122.8
PTS
13.5
VS
Keon Ellis
OR
130.6
DR
112.6
PTS
8.1
PF
Brice Sensabaugh
OR
106.8
DR
125.0
PTS
14.2
VS
Sam Merrill
OR
127.0
DR
119.1
PTS
13.0
C
Kyle Filipowski
OR
113.7
DR
118.6
PTS
10.9
VS
Evan Mobley
OR
118.9
DR
111.8
PTS
18.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Cleveland Cavaliers are the pick to win (84.7% probability). Expected starting fives — Utah Jazz: Cody Williams, Elijah Harkless, Ace Bailey, Brice Sensabaugh, Kyle Filipowski. Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Keon Ellis, Sam Merrill, Evan Mobley.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 250.78 points, signaling a fast, high-scoring game rather than a grind-it-out defensive contest. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -13.17, giving the home side a 13.17-point edge — a margin that, in this projection, favors Cleveland by a comfortable cushion.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 250.8 Most likely outcome: 252 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Utah Jazz - Cleveland Cavaliers) -13.2 Most likely outcome: -14 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Utah’s Elo trend is falling while Cleveland’s is rising over the recent stretch.

Utah Jazz

1311.7 -27.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-28 Phoenix Suns 1311.7 -4.5
2026-03-27 Denver Nuggets 1316.2 -2.9
2026-03-25 Washington Wizards 1319.1 -13.7
2026-03-23 Toronto Raptors 1332.8 -6.1
2026-03-21 Philadelphia 76ers 1338.9 —

Cleveland Cavaliers

1601.6 +7.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-27 Miami Heat 1601.6 +8.7
2026-03-25 Miami Heat 1592.9 -14.3
2026-03-24 Orlando Magic 1607.2 +6.5
2026-03-21 New Orleans Pelicans 1600.7 +6.5
2026-03-19 Chicago Bulls 1594.2 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Utah Jazz

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Phoenix Suns 109 134 -25
Denver Nuggets 129 135 -6
Washington Wizards 110 133 -23
Toronto Raptors 127 143 -16
Philadelphia 76ers 116 126 -10

Cleveland Cavaliers

4-1 in last 5
W L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Miami Heat 149 128 +21
Miami Heat 103 120 -17
Orlando Magic 136 131 +5
New Orleans Pelicans 111 106 +5
Chicago Bulls 115 110 +5

Game Analysis

Utah arrives on a three-game losing skid, conceding 134, 135 and 133 points in those losses — a clear defensive malaise. Cleveland is 2-1 in the last three, including a 149-128 win and a 136-131 win, showing they can both pile up points and maintain it across high-scoring affairs. Utah’s recent drop in power rating (from 1338.9 down to 1311.7) contrasts with Cleveland’s slight uptick (1594.2 to 1601.6). Looking at the starters, Utah’s five average an offensive rating near 106.02 and a defensive rating around 122.58, with the group totaling 53.2 points (10.64 per starter) on average. Cleveland’s starting five average an offensive rating of about 124.78 and a defensive rating near 115.28, combining for 88.0 points (17.6 per starter). Those differences — notably Cleveland’s much stronger offense and cleaner defense — point to a sizable matchup advantage.

Final Prediction

Cleveland’s superior offensive and defensive ratings, heavier scoring from the starters, and positive momentum give them the edge in this matchup. Watch whether Utah can stop the Cavaliers from turning possessions into quick, high-value shots — that will decide if the spread holds.

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