NBA 2025-2026: Brooklyn Nets vs Charlotte Hornets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Brooklyn Nets

Home Team
15.3%
VS

Charlotte Hornets

Away Team
84.7%
2025-2026 Season

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Nolan Traoré
OR
92.5
DR
121.6
PTS
8.5
VS
LaMelo Ball
OR
115.6
DR
113.6
PTS
19.7
SG
Drake Powell
OR
101.6
DR
120.8
PTS
6.3
VS
Brandon Miller
OR
113.4
DR
113.0
PTS
20.3
SF
Ziaire Williams
OR
109.7
DR
116.2
PTS
10.3
VS
Kon Knueppel
OR
126.4
DR
116.5
PTS
18.9
PF
Noah Clowney
OR
104.1
DR
119.2
PTS
12.4
VS
Miles Bridges
OR
119.1
DR
115.6
PTS
17.1
C
Nic Claxton
OR
124.3
DR
117.7
PTS
11.8
VS
Moussa Diabaté
OR
136.0
DR
111.3
PTS
8.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Charlotte Hornets are projected to win (84.7% probability). Expected starting five — Brooklyn Nets: Nolan Traoré, Drake Powell, Ziaire Williams, Noah Clowney, Nic Claxton. Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabaté.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 221.96 points, pointing to a fairly high-scoring affair and a comfortable offensive tempo for both teams. The expected spread is Home - Away = -13.88, meaning the home side is forecast to lose by about 13.9 points and the advantage clearly lies with Charlotte.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 222.0 Most likely outcome: 221 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Brooklyn Nets - Charlotte Hornets) -13.9 Most likely outcome: -14 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Brooklyn’s power rating is essentially flat with a small dip over five games, while Charlotte’s power rating has trended down slightly over the same span.

Brooklyn Nets

1311.9 -1.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-29 Sacramento Kings 1311.9 +11.9
2026-03-27 Los Angeles Lakers 1300.0 -2.6
2026-03-25 Golden State Warriors 1302.6 -5.0
2026-03-23 Portland Trail Blazers 1307.6 -6.0
2026-03-22 Sacramento Kings 1313.6 —

Charlotte Hornets

1581.7 -6.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-29 Boston Celtics 1581.7 -9.9
2026-03-28 Philadelphia 76ers 1591.6 -12.3
2026-03-26 New York Knicks 1603.9 +11.3
2026-03-24 Sacramento Kings 1592.6 +4.7
2026-03-21 Memphis Grizzlies 1587.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Brooklyn Nets

1-4 in last 5
W L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Sacramento Kings 116 99 +17
Los Angeles Lakers 99 116 -17
Golden State Warriors 106 109 -3
Portland Trail Blazers 99 134 -35
Sacramento Kings 122 126 -4

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 99 114 -15
Philadelphia 76ers 114 118 -4
New York Knicks 114 103 +11
Sacramento Kings 134 90 +44
Memphis Grizzlies 124 101 +23

Game Analysis

Brooklyn is 1-2 in their last three: a 116-99 win over Sacramento sandwiched around two losses, 99-116 to the Lakers and a 106-109 loss to Golden State. Charlotte is also 1-2, beating New York 114-103 but falling 99-114 to Boston and 114-118 to Philadelphia. Both teams show some recent inconsistency, but Brooklyn’s lone win was decisive while Charlotte’s results include a tight loss and a solid road victory. Looking at the expected starting fives, Brooklyn’s five average offensive rating is 106.44, defensive rating 119.10, and average points made per starter 9.86. Charlotte’s projected five averages an offensive rating of 122.10, defensive rating 114.00, and 16.80 points made per starter. Those numbers give Charlotte a sizable offensive edge (about +15.66) and a modest defensive edge (about -5.10 in defensive rating).

Final Prediction

Charlotte’s starting-five efficiency and scoring depth explain the large probability and spread in their favor. The key factor to watch is whether Brooklyn can close the efficiency gap on offense and disrupt Charlotte’s starters, who are projected to drive most of the scoring.

Get Daily NBA Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel