NBA 2025-2026: Detroit Pistons vs Toronto Raptors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Detroit Pistons

Home Team
65.2%
VS

Toronto Raptors

Away Team
34.8%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Daniss Jenkins
OR
102.3
DR
111.2
PTS
8.8
VS
Jamal Shead
OR
113.4
DR
115.1
PTS
6.5
SG
Ausar Thompson
OR
112.8
DR
104.7
PTS
10.0
VS
Brandon Ingram
OR
108.7
DR
114.8
PTS
21.4
SF
Duncan Robinson
OR
125.4
DR
115.1
PTS
11.9
VS
RJ Barrett
OR
115.5
DR
114.5
PTS
19.0
PF
Tobias Harris
OR
118.2
DR
111.3
PTS
13.4
VS
Scottie Barnes
OR
115.7
DR
110.0
PTS
18.6
C
Jalen Duren
OR
132.1
DR
107.8
PTS
19.3
VS
Jakob Poeltl
OR
128.0
DR
109.9
PTS
10.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Detroit Pistons are the pick to win (65.2% probability). Expected starting five — Detroit Pistons: Daniss Jenkins, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren. Expected starting five — Toronto Raptors: Jamal Shead, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 217.22 points, suggesting a game with a moderate-to-up tempo and enough scoring opportunities for both teams. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 3.91, giving roughly a 3.9-point advantage to the home team; that margin supports Detroit as the favorite in this projection.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 217.2 Most likely outcome: 217 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Detroit Pistons - Toronto Raptors) 3.9 Most likely outcome: 3 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Detroit’s power rating is slightly down over the last five games while Toronto’s is rising.

Detroit Pistons

1641.8 -4.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-30 Oklahoma City Thunder 1641.8 -8.1
2026-03-28 Minnesota Timberwolves 1649.9 +10.9
2026-03-26 New Orleans Pelicans 1639.0 +5.3
2026-03-25 Atlanta Hawks 1633.7 -12.3
2026-03-23 Los Angeles Lakers 1646.0 —

Toronto Raptors

1537.7 +16.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-29 Orlando Magic 1537.7 +14.0
2026-03-27 New Orleans Pelicans 1523.7 +7.6
2026-03-25 Los Angeles Clippers 1516.1 -11.0
2026-03-23 Utah Jazz 1527.1 +6.0
2026-03-22 Phoenix Suns 1521.1 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Detroit Pistons

3-2 in last 5
L W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 110 114 -4
Minnesota Timberwolves 109 87 +22
New Orleans Pelicans 129 108 +21
Atlanta Hawks 129 130 -1
Los Angeles Lakers 113 110 +3

Toronto Raptors

3-2 in last 5
W W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Orlando Magic 139 87 +52
New Orleans Pelicans 119 106 +13
Los Angeles Clippers 94 119 -25
Utah Jazz 143 127 +16
Phoenix Suns 98 120 -22

Game Analysis

Detroit is 2-1 in its last three games with wins over Minnesota (109-87) and New Orleans (129-108) and a narrow loss to Oklahoma City (110-114). Those results show the Pistons can defend (109-87 was a hold-down) and score in bursts (129 points against New Orleans). Toronto is also 2-1, with dominant wins over Orlando (139-87) and New Orleans (119-106) but a heavy loss to the Clippers (94-119), highlighting streaky offense and occasional defensive lapses. Looking at the projected starting units, Detroit’s five average an offensive rating of 118.16, a defensive rating of 110.02, and 12.68 average points made per player — a balanced group anchored by Jalen Duren (OFF 132.1, 19.3 points). Toronto’s five average an offensive rating of 116.26, a defensive rating of 112.86, and 15.22 average points made per player — driven by Brandon Ingram (21.4) and RJ Barrett (19.0) but with a slightly weaker defensive profile.

Final Prediction

Detroit’s edge comes from a stronger two-way profile among the projected starters and recent wins that show both defensive stops and offensive bursts. Watch the interior matchup between Jalen Duren and Jakob Poeltl — how that battle goes will likely determine the final outcome.

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