NBA 2025-2026: Houston Rockets vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Houston Rockets

Home Team
68.4%
VS

New York Knicks

Away Team
31.6%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Reed Sheppard
OR
116.2
DR
112.4
PTS
13.4
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.3
DR
116.7
PTS
26.3
SG
Amen Thompson
OR
123.8
DR
114.0
PTS
17.9
VS
Josh Hart
OR
122.0
DR
110.6
PTS
12.3
SF
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
122.3
DR
114.6
PTS
15.6
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
124.7
DR
113.5
PTS
14.7
PF
Kevin Durant
OR
124.6
DR
115.0
PTS
25.9
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
116.8
DR
112.6
PTS
16.7
C
Alperen Şengün
OR
115.9
DR
111.7
PTS
20.7
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
122.0
DR
109.8
PTS
20.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Houston Rockets to win (68.4% probability). Expected starting fives — Houston Rockets: Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün. New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The expected combined total is 231.54 points, signaling a game that should lean toward a higher pace and plenty of scoring chances. The expected spread is Home - Away = 2.32, giving the home team a modest 2.32-point edge, while the overall prediction still favors Houston.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 231.5 Most likely outcome: 231 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Houston Rockets - New York Knicks) 2.3 Most likely outcome: 2 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams show falling momentum in their recent power-rating trend over the last five games.

Houston Rockets

1557.6 -7.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-29 New Orleans Pelicans 1557.6 +9.2
2026-03-27 Memphis Grizzlies 1548.4 +5.4
2026-03-25 Minnesota Timberwolves 1543.0 -8.2
2026-03-23 Chicago Bulls 1551.2 -13.9
2026-03-21 Miami Heat 1565.1 —

New York Knicks

1601.7 -10.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-29 Oklahoma City Thunder 1601.7 -7.6
2026-03-26 Charlotte Hornets 1609.3 -11.2
2026-03-24 New Orleans Pelicans 1620.5 +5.0
2026-03-22 Washington Wizards 1615.5 +2.9
2026-03-20 Brooklyn Nets 1612.6 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Houston Rockets

3-2 in last 5
W W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
New Orleans Pelicans 134 102 +32
Memphis Grizzlies 119 109 +10
Minnesota Timberwolves 108 110 -2
Chicago Bulls 124 132 -8
Miami Heat 123 122 +1

New York Knicks

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 100 111 -11
Charlotte Hornets 103 114 -11
New Orleans Pelicans 121 116 +5
Washington Wizards 145 113 +32
Brooklyn Nets 93 92 +1

Game Analysis

Houston arrives 2-1 over its last three: a 134-102 win over New Orleans, a 119-109 win at Memphis, and a narrow 108-110 loss to Minnesota. That stretch highlights their ability to blow games open offensively (134 points) while also surviving closer contests. New York is 1-2 in the last three, losing 100-111 to Oklahoma City and 103-114 to Charlotte before a 121-116 win over New Orleans, a pattern that suggests inconsistency on the road to road-like opponents. Looking at the expected starting units, Houston’s five average an offensive rating of 120.56, a defensive rating of 113.54, and 18.7 points made per starter; New York’s projected five average an offensive rating of 121.36, a defensive rating of 112.64, and 18.0 points made per starter. Those numbers show closely matched offenses but a small defensive edge for New York; Houston’s slightly higher scoring per starter and balanced offensive ratings (with Durant and Amen Thompson leading the way) help explain the Rockets’ advantage.

Final Prediction

Houston gets the nod because of recent form, a higher per-starter scoring average, and balanced offensive ratings. Key factor to watch: how Houston’s scoring balance (Durant, Amen Thompson, Şengün) matches up with New York’s defense — that matchup will likely decide a high-scoring game.

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