NBA 2025-2026: Chicago Bulls vs Indiana Pacers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Chicago Bulls
Home Team
86.1%
VS
Indiana Pacers
Away Team
13.9%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Chicago Bulls
Josh Giddey
PTS
19.3
REB
8.1
AST
10.0
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Tre Jones
PTS
17.7
REB
4.6
AST
7.3
3PM
1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Isaac Okoro
PTS
12.1
REB
3.9
AST
2.1
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Matas Buzelis
PTS
19.8
REB
6.6
AST
2.8
3PM
2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Nick Richards
PTS
12.3
REB
8.6
AST
1.4
3PM
0.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Indiana Pacers
Quenton Jackson
PTS
9.1
REB
3.6
AST
3.1
3PM
1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Ethan Thompson
PTS
5.6
REB
3.5
AST
1.6
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Kam Jones
PTS
6.8
REB
3.3
AST
3.1
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Pascal Siakam
PTS
24.7
REB
7.0
AST
3.6
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jay Huff
PTS
9.0
REB
5.3
AST
1.6
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Josh Giddey
OR
112.2
DR
116.7
PTS
17.2
VS
Quenton Jackson
OR
106.8
DR
122.0
PTS
8.4
SG
Tre Jones
OR
128.7
DR
117.9
PTS
13.4
VS
Ethan Thompson
OR
82.3
DR
116.8
PTS
5.0
SF
Isaac Okoro
OR
113.6
DR
121.0
PTS
9.2
VS
Kam Jones
OR
112.9
DR
126.2
PTS
4.1
PF
Matas Buzelis
OR
108.8
DR
117.0
PTS
16.4
VS
Pascal Siakam
OR
110.0
DR
118.1
PTS
23.8
C
Nick Richards
OR
105.2
DR
115.8
PTS
9.4
VS
Jay Huff
OR
110.8
DR
116.1
PTS
9.3
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Chicago Bulls to win (probability 86.1%).
Expected starters — Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey, Tre Jones, Isaac Okoro, Matas Buzelis, Nick Richards. Indiana Pacers: Quenton Jackson, Ethan Thompson, Kam Jones, Pascal Siakam, Jay Huff.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 246.53 points, signaling a fast-paced, high-scoring game with both teams likely to trade baskets. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 6.98, giving the home side roughly a seven-point edge — an advantage that aligns with Chicago’s projected win probability.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
246.5
Most likely outcome: 247 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Chicago Bulls - Indiana Pacers)
7.0
Most likely outcome: 7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Chicago’s power rating has been drifting downward over the last five games while Indiana’s has trended upward.
Chicago Bulls
1386.7
-23.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | San Antonio Spurs | 1386.7 | -2.3 |
| 2026-03-28 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1389.0 | -10.5 |
| 2026-03-27 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1399.5 | -2.9 |
| 2026-03-25 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1402.4 | -7.4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Houston Rockets | 1409.8 | — |
Indiana Pacers
1312.7
+23.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Miami Heat | 1312.7 | +16.0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1296.7 | -3.6 |
| 2026-03-25 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1300.3 | -3.0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Orlando Magic | 1303.3 | +13.9 |
| 2026-03-21 | San Antonio Spurs | 1289.4 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Chicago Bulls
1-4 in last 5
L
L
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 114 | 129 | -15 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 124 | 125 | -1 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 113 | 131 | -18 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 137 | 157 | -20 | |
| Houston Rockets | 132 | 124 | +8 |
Indiana Pacers
2-3 in last 5
W
L
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | 135 | 118 | +17 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 113 | 114 | -1 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 130 | 137 | -7 | |
| Orlando Magic | 128 | 126 | +2 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 119 | 134 | -15 |
Game Analysis
Chicago is on a three-game losing streak (114-129 vs San Antonio, 124-125 vs Memphis, 113-131 vs OKC) and their power rating has fallen from 1409.8 to 1386.7 over five games. Indiana is 1-2 over the same span with a big win (135-118 vs Miami) and narrow losses (113-114 vs LAC, 130-137 vs LAL), and their power rating has climbed from 1289.4 to 1312.7. The recent form suggests Chicago has struggled defensively in those losses while Indiana has shown they can score in bunches.
The Bulls’ projected starting five averages an offensive rating of 113.7, a defensive rating of 117.7, and 13.1 points made per starter; the Pacers’ projected starters average a 104.6 offensive rating, 119.8 defensive rating, and 10.1 points made per starter. Those numbers favor Chicago on both ends: better scoring efficiency and a slightly cleaner defensive profile, while Indiana leans heavily on Pascal Siakam’s 23.8 points contribution.
Final Prediction
Chicago’s deeper, more efficient starting group gives them the edge in this projection and explains the 86.1% lean. Watch whether the Bulls can contain Pascal Siakam and sustain their starting five’s scoring; that matchup will likely decide the margin.
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