NBA 2025-2026: Houston Rockets vs Milwaukee Bucks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Houston Rockets
Home Team
89.6%
VS
Milwaukee Bucks
Away Team
10.4%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Houston Rockets
Amen Thompson
PTS
16.9
REB
7.0
AST
5.5
3PM
0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jabari Smith Jr.
PTS
15.8
REB
6.8
AST
2.1
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Kevin Durant
PTS
24.4
REB
5.5
AST
5.9
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Tari Eason
PTS
11.9
REB
6.6
AST
1.6
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Alperen Şengün
PTS
20.0
REB
9.2
AST
6.1
3PM
0.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Milwaukee Bucks
Ryan Rollins
PTS
20.1
REB
4.6
AST
5.9
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Gary Trent Jr.
PTS
12.6
REB
2.9
AST
2.3
3PM
2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Pete Nance
PTS
7.4
REB
4.5
AST
2.1
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jericho Sims
PTS
6.2
REB
6.3
AST
1.8
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ousmane Dieng
PTS
12.3
REB
5.6
AST
3.7
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Amen Thompson
OR
123.9
DR
114.0
PTS
17.9
VS
Ryan Rollins
OR
112.1
DR
118.0
PTS
17.1
SG
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
122.3
DR
114.5
PTS
15.6
VS
Gary Trent Jr.
OR
101.3
DR
123.4
PTS
8.3
SF
Kevin Durant
OR
124.7
DR
114.8
PTS
25.9
VS
Pete Nance
OR
100.1
DR
122.8
PTS
4.9
PF
Tari Eason
OR
110.3
DR
112.0
PTS
10.5
VS
Jericho Sims
OR
122.6
DR
122.3
PTS
4.4
C
Alperen Şengün
OR
116.6
DR
111.6
PTS
20.5
VS
Ousmane Dieng
OR
96.7
DR
121.0
PTS
9.5
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Houston Rockets are the pick to win (89.6% probability).
Expected starting five — Houston Rockets: Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Alperen Şengün.
Expected starting five — Milwaukee Bucks: Ryan Rollins, Gary Trent Jr., Pete Nance, Jericho Sims, Ousmane Dieng.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 220.46 points, signaling a moderately high-scoring game with a healthy pace. The expected spread is 14.14 in favor of the home team, giving the host a large advantage coming into this matchup.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
220.5
Most likely outcome: 220 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Houston Rockets - Milwaukee Bucks)
14.1
Most likely outcome: 14 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Houston’s power rating is rising while Milwaukee’s is falling over the last five games.
Houston Rockets
1569.9
+18.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | New York Knicks | 1569.9 | +12.3 |
| 2026-03-29 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1557.6 | +9.2 |
| 2026-03-27 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1548.4 | +5.4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1543.0 | -8.2 |
| 2026-03-23 | Chicago Bulls | 1551.2 | — |
Milwaukee Bucks
1401.8
-8.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | Dallas Mavericks | 1401.8 | +10.1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1391.7 | -6.6 |
| 2026-03-28 | San Antonio Spurs | 1398.3 | -3.6 |
| 2026-03-25 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1401.9 | -8.8 |
| 2026-03-23 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1410.7 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Houston Rockets
3-2 in last 5
W
W
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 111 | 94 | +17 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 134 | 102 | +32 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 119 | 109 | +10 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 108 | 110 | -2 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 124 | 132 | -8 |
Milwaukee Bucks
1-4 in last 5
W
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | 123 | 99 | +24 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 113 | 127 | -14 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 95 | 127 | -32 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 99 | 130 | -31 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 96 | 129 | -33 |
Game Analysis
Houston arrives on a three-game win streak: a 111–94 road win over the Knicks, a 134–102 victory over the Pelicans, and a 119–109 win against the Grizzlies. That stretch has them trending up (power rating +18.7 over five games). Milwaukee is 1–2 in its last three, beating Dallas 123–99 but dropping 113–127 to the Clippers and losing 95–127 to the Spurs, a slump reflected in a −8.9 move in power rating.
Looking at projected starters, Houston’s five average an offensive rating of 119.56, a defensive rating of 113.38, and 18.08 average points made per player — a balanced, high-end group led by Kevin Durant (25.9). Milwaukee’s projected five average an offensive rating of 106.56, a defensive rating of 121.50, and 8.84 average points made per player, indicating both a scoring gap and defensive struggles. Those splits help explain the sizable edge for Houston.
Final Prediction
Houston’s recent form, superior starter efficiency (119.56 ORtg vs. 106.56), and scoring balance make them the clear favorite. Watch how effectively Houston’s top scorers, led by Kevin Durant, can exploit Milwaukee’s defensive ratings and turn that gap into a decisive margin.
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