NBA 2025-2026: Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Miami Heat

Home Team
60.5%
VS

Boston Celtics

Away Team
39.5%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Miami Heat
PTS 9.1 REB 3.4 AST 6.1 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.1 REB 4.4 AST 4.2 3PM 1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.1 REB 4.5 AST 4.2 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.2 REB 5.0 AST 2.6 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.8 REB 9.7 AST 3.8 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Boston Celtics
PTS 17.4 REB 4.2 AST 5.0 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 29.8 REB 7.1 AST 6.2 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 23.2 REB 8.5 AST 5.2 3PM 3.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.4 REB 3.9 AST 1.6 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.7 REB 8.3 AST 1.9 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Davion Mitchell
OR
120.4
DR
115.6
PTS
9.0
VS
Derrick White
OR
117.0
DR
112.3
PTS
17.0
SG
Pelle Larsson
OR
119.1
DR
116.8
PTS
11.2
VS
Jaylen Brown
OR
114.3
DR
113.4
PTS
28.6
SF
Tyler Herro
OR
117.9
DR
118.5
PTS
21.6
VS
Jayson Tatum
OR
109.5
DR
107.5
PTS
20.9
PF
Andrew Wiggins
OR
116.8
DR
113.5
PTS
15.6
VS
Sam Hauser
OR
115.1
DR
115.4
PTS
8.9
C
Bam Adebayo
OR
113.9
DR
111.0
PTS
20.1
VS
Neemias Queta
OR
134.9
DR
108.1
PTS
9.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

I’m taking the Miami Heat to win this one — projected probability 60.5%. Expected starting fives: Miami — Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo. Boston — Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined total of 227.39 points, pointing to a moderately paced, high-scoring game rather than a defensive slog. The spread (Home - Away = -0.13) is essentially a pick’em, giving a 0.13-point edge to the away team. Note that the win-probability model and the points/spread model are separate systems — one yields the 60.5% Miami win chance while the other produces the nearly even point spread — and both are shown for transparency.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 227.4 Most likely outcome: 227 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Miami Heat - Boston Celtics) -0.1 Most likely outcome: -1 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Miami’s power rating has been essentially flat (+0.4 over five games) while Boston’s has risen noticeably (+17.7), indicating Boston’s momentum is building.

Miami Heat

1514.1 +0.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-30 Philadelphia 76ers 1514.1 +10.8
2026-03-29 Indiana Pacers 1503.3 -16.0
2026-03-27 Cleveland Cavaliers 1519.3 -8.8
2026-03-25 Cleveland Cavaliers 1528.1 +14.4
2026-03-23 San Antonio Spurs 1513.7 —

Boston Celtics

1638.9 +17.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-30 Atlanta Hawks 1638.9 -12.2
2026-03-29 Charlotte Hornets 1651.1 +9.9
2026-03-27 Atlanta Hawks 1641.2 +7.8
2026-03-25 Oklahoma City Thunder 1633.4 +12.2
2026-03-22 Minnesota Timberwolves 1621.2 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Miami Heat

2-3 in last 5
W L L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Philadelphia 76ers 119 109 +10
Indiana Pacers 118 135 -17
Cleveland Cavaliers 128 149 -21
Cleveland Cavaliers 120 103 +17
San Antonio Spurs 111 136 -25

Boston Celtics

3-2 in last 5
L W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Atlanta Hawks 102 112 -10
Charlotte Hornets 114 99 +15
Atlanta Hawks 109 102 +7
Oklahoma City Thunder 119 109 +10
Minnesota Timberwolves 92 102 -10

Game Analysis

Miami’s last three: a solid 119-109 win over Philadelphia sandwiched between tough defensive nights — 118-135 loss to Indiana and 128-149 loss to Cleveland — showing swinginess on defense. Boston is coming off a 102-112 loss to Atlanta but had wins of 114-99 and 109-102 against Charlotte and Atlanta, respectively, a steadier recent run. Looking at the projected starters, Miami’s group averages an offensive rating of 117.62, defensive rating of 115.08, and 15.5 average points made per starter; Boston’s projected starters average offensive rating 118.16, defensive rating 111.34, and 17.06 average points made. Boston’s starters bring slightly better defense and more scoring from the five, while Miami’s unit is balanced and capable of bursts on offense.

Final Prediction

Miami’s edge comes from the win-probability model favoring them and a balanced starting five that can exploit matchups even if Boston has momentum. Key factor to watch: whether Miami can tighten its defense after recent blowouts — that will decide if the Heat cover that razor-thin spread and take the game.

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