NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Clippers vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Los Angeles Clippers

Home Team
35.9%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
64.1%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Los Angeles Clippers
PTS 20.9 REB 2.8 AST 6.3 3PM 3.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.9 REB 3.6 AST 1.4 3PM 1.1
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PTS 27.5 REB 6.5 AST 3.6 3PM 2.7
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.8 REB 5.0 AST 1.3 3PM 1.2
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PTS 10.8 REB 4.9 AST 1.4 3PM 2.0
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AWAY San Antonio Spurs
PTS 15.7 REB 3.1 AST 5.6 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.5 REB 5.0 AST 7.4 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.2 REB 3.5 AST 2.0 3PM 2.6
Distribution (PDF)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.7 REB 4.7 AST 1.4 3PM 2.8
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PTS 24.8 REB 11.0 AST 3.0 3PM 1.9
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Darius Garland
OR
122.5
DR
120.2
PTS
21.2
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.8
DR
112.8
PTS
18.5
SG
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
122.9
DR
118.0
PTS
10.5
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
116.9
DR
111.3
PTS
16.6
SF
Kawhi Leonard
OR
124.7
DR
112.6
PTS
28.1
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
117.4
DR
113.6
PTS
14.0
PF
John Collins
OR
121.9
DR
117.1
PTS
13.5
VS
Julian Champagnie
OR
118.1
DR
111.5
PTS
11.2
C
Brook Lopez
OR
100.3
DR
115.2
PTS
8.2
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.2
DR
99.0
PTS
24.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are projected to win (64.1% probability). Expected starting five — Los Angeles Clippers: Darius Garland, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, John Collins, Brook Lopez. San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 230.39 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring, up-tempo game. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -2.93, giving San Antonio about a 3-point edge over the Clippers on the road.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 230.4 Most likely outcome: 230 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Clippers - San Antonio Spurs) -2.9 Most likely outcome: -3 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams are trending up in recent power ratings: the Clippers are +8.3 over five games while the Spurs are +12.7.

Los Angeles Clippers

1543.9 +8.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-31 Portland Trail Blazers 1543.9 -12.9
2026-03-29 Milwaukee Bucks 1556.8 +6.6
2026-03-27 Indiana Pacers 1550.2 +3.6
2026-03-25 Toronto Raptors 1546.6 +11.0
2026-03-23 Milwaukee Bucks 1535.6 —

San Antonio Spurs

1722.0 +12.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-01 Golden State Warriors 1722.0 +4.1
2026-03-30 Chicago Bulls 1717.9 +2.3
2026-03-28 Milwaukee Bucks 1715.6 +3.7
2026-03-25 Memphis Grizzlies 1711.9 +2.6
2026-03-23 Miami Heat 1709.3 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Los Angeles Clippers

4-1 in last 5
L W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Portland Trail Blazers 104 114 -10
Milwaukee Bucks 127 113 +14
Indiana Pacers 114 113 +1
Toronto Raptors 119 94 +25
Milwaukee Bucks 129 96 +33

San Antonio Spurs

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Golden State Warriors 127 113 +14
Chicago Bulls 129 114 +15
Milwaukee Bucks 127 95 +32
Memphis Grizzlies 123 98 +25
Miami Heat 136 111 +25

Game Analysis

The Clippers are 2-1 in their last three with back-to-back one-point and 14-point wins after a 104-114 loss to Portland; they’ve shown the ability to score (127 vs Milwaukee) but also have defensive lapses. San Antonio arrives on a three-game streak, blowing out Milwaukee 127-95 and beating Golden State 127-113, showing sustained offensive output and defensive control in recent outings. Looking at the expected starting fives, the Clippers’ group averages an offensive rating of about 118.46, defensive rating of about 116.62, and 16.3 points made per starter — a solid offense with middling team defense. The Spurs’ projected starters average roughly a 118.28 offensive rating, a much stronger 109.64 defensive rating, and 17.0 points made per starter; Victor Wembanyama’s 99.0 defensive rating stands out as a game-leveling factor. Those defensive differences help explain why San Antonio is favored despite similar offensive profiles.

Final Prediction

San Antonio’s hotter form and a considerably better defensive profile give them the edge in this matchup. Watch how the Clippers handle Wembanyama — interior defense and rebounding will likely decide whether Los Angeles can close the ~3-point gap.

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