NBA 2025-2026: Portland Trail Blazers vs New Orleans Pelicans: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Portland Trail Blazers
Home Team
57.3%
VS
New Orleans Pelicans
Away Team
42.7%
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HOME Portland Trail Blazers
Jrue Holiday
PTS
16.7
REB
3.7
AST
6.7
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Scoot Henderson
PTS
16.6
REB
3.1
AST
5.5
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Deni Avdija
PTS
23.8
REB
6.9
AST
7.1
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Toumani Camara
PTS
14.2
REB
4.6
AST
2.8
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Donovan Clingan
PTS
12.0
REB
11.4
AST
1.9
3PM
0.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY New Orleans Pelicans
Dejounte Murray
PTS
17.8
REB
5.1
AST
7.3
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Herbert Jones
PTS
9.8
REB
3.5
AST
3.4
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Saddiq Bey
PTS
17.2
REB
4.9
AST
2.9
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Trey Murphy III
PTS
18.5
REB
5.3
AST
3.0
3PM
3.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Zion Williamson
PTS
20.6
REB
6.1
AST
4.0
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jrue Holiday
OR
116.3
DR
115.8
PTS
16.1
VS
Dejounte Murray
OR
112.4
DR
116.8
PTS
17.3
SG
Scoot Henderson
OR
106.4
DR
114.2
PTS
14.0
VS
Herbert Jones
OR
103.3
DR
117.4
PTS
9.0
SF
Deni Avdija
OR
116.2
DR
115.1
PTS
23.9
VS
Saddiq Bey
OR
121.2
DR
121.0
PTS
17.4
PF
Toumani Camara
OR
112.7
DR
116.2
PTS
13.1
VS
Trey Murphy III
OR
121.7
DR
119.0
PTS
21.7
C
Donovan Clingan
OR
128.6
DR
110.0
PTS
12.1
VS
Zion Williamson
OR
126.6
DR
118.8
PTS
21.3
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Portland Trail Blazers are projected to win (57.3% probability).
Expected starting five — Portland Trail Blazers: Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan; New Orleans Pelicans: Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined total of 239.34 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and a decent pace on both ends. The expected spread is 7.08 (home − away), meaning the home team is projected to have about a seven-point advantage.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
239.3
Most likely outcome: 239 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Portland Trail Blazers - New Orleans Pelicans)
7.1
Most likely outcome: 7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Portland’s Elo has been rising over the last five games while New Orleans’ Elo has been falling.
Portland Trail Blazers
1510.4
+13.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1510.4 | +12.9 |
| 2026-03-29 | Washington Wizards | 1497.5 | +5.6 |
| 2026-03-27 | Dallas Mavericks | 1491.9 | -13.8 |
| 2026-03-25 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1505.7 | +8.8 |
| 2026-03-23 | Brooklyn Nets | 1496.9 | — |
New Orleans Pelicans
1427.1
-27.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Houston Rockets | 1427.1 | -9.3 |
| 2026-03-27 | Toronto Raptors | 1436.4 | -7.6 |
| 2026-03-26 | Detroit Pistons | 1444.0 | -5.3 |
| 2026-03-24 | New York Knicks | 1449.3 | -5.1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1454.4 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Portland Trail Blazers
4-1 in last 5
W
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Clippers | 114 | 104 | +10 | |
| Washington Wizards | 123 | 88 | +35 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 93 | 100 | -7 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 130 | 99 | +31 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 134 | 99 | +35 |
New Orleans Pelicans
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | 102 | 134 | -32 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 106 | 119 | -13 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 108 | 129 | -21 | |
| New York Knicks | 116 | 121 | -5 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 106 | 111 | -5 |
Game Analysis
Portland arrives 2-1 over their last three games with wins over the Clippers (114-104) and Wizards (123-88) and a loss to the Mavericks (93-100). Those results show Portland can score in bunches and defend well in victories. New Orleans is on a three-game skid, losing 102-134, 106-119, and 108-129, which highlights significant defensive breakdowns in recent outings.
Looking at the expected starters, Portland’s five average an offensive rating of about 116.0, defensive rating of about 114.3, and an average of 15.84 points made per starter; New Orleans’ projected five average an offensive rating of about 117.0, defensive rating of about 118.6, and 17.34 points made per starter. That suggests New Orleans may be slightly more productive offensively from the starting group, but Portland has the clear edge on defense among the projected five, a tilt that matters given New Orleans’ recent defensive lapses.
Final Prediction
Portland’s upward momentum, cleaner recent defensive performances, and a stronger five-man defensive profile give them the edge in a matchup where scoring should be plentiful. Key factor to watch: whether Portland’s interior defense (led by Donovan Clingan) can limit New Orleans’ high-scoring starters and stop the Pelicans from turning this into a shootout.
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