NBA 2025-2026: Charlotte Hornets vs Indiana Pacers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Charlotte Hornets
Home Team
87.9%
VS
Indiana Pacers
Away Team
12.1%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Charlotte Hornets
LaMelo Ball
PTS
21.4
REB
4.6
AST
7.6
3PM
3.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Brandon Miller
PTS
21.1
REB
5.1
AST
3.9
3PM
3.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Kon Knueppel
PTS
19.1
REB
5.8
AST
3.6
3PM
3.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Miles Bridges
PTS
18.6
REB
5.5
AST
3.1
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Moussa Diabaté
PTS
9.4
REB
9.2
AST
1.8
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Indiana Pacers
Quenton Jackson
PTS
9.5
REB
3.2
AST
3.0
3PM
1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ethan Thompson
PTS
8.6
REB
3.2
AST
1.8
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Kobe Brown
PTS
9.7
REB
4.3
AST
1.9
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Pascal Siakam
PTS
25.1
REB
6.4
AST
3.1
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jay Huff
PTS
9.8
REB
4.8
AST
1.4
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
LaMelo Ball
OR
116.1
DR
113.3
PTS
19.6
VS
Quenton Jackson
OR
107.4
DR
121.8
PTS
8.3
SG
Brandon Miller
OR
114.7
DR
112.8
PTS
20.4
VS
Ethan Thompson
OR
84.9
DR
116.8
PTS
5.8
SF
Kon Knueppel
OR
125.9
DR
116.1
PTS
18.8
VS
Kobe Brown
OR
117.5
DR
125.5
PTS
9.1
PF
Miles Bridges
OR
119.8
DR
115.0
PTS
17.2
VS
Pascal Siakam
OR
110.8
DR
118.1
PTS
23.9
C
Moussa Diabaté
OR
136.3
DR
111.1
PTS
8.0
VS
Jay Huff
OR
111.2
DR
116.2
PTS
9.4
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Charlotte Hornets are picked to win this one with an 87.9% probability.
Expected starting five — Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabaté. Indiana Pacers: Quenton Jackson, Ethan Thompson, Kobe Brown, Pascal Siakam, Jay Huff.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 231.29 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring game and a quick pace on both ends. The expected spread is Home - Away: 14.79, which implies a sizable 14.79-point edge to the home team.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
231.3
Most likely outcome: 231 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Charlotte Hornets - Indiana Pacers)
14.8
Most likely outcome: 15 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Charlotte’s power rating has dipped modestly (-9.1 over five games) while Indiana’s has climbed (+23.2), so Hornets are slightly cooling off as Pacers gain momentum.
Charlotte Hornets
1594.8
-9.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Phoenix Suns | 1594.8 | +8.7 |
| 2026-03-31 | Brooklyn Nets | 1586.1 | +4.4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Boston Celtics | 1581.7 | -9.9 |
| 2026-03-28 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1591.6 | -12.3 |
| 2026-03-26 | New York Knicks | 1603.9 | — |
Indiana Pacers
1326.5
+23.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Chicago Bulls | 1326.5 | +13.8 |
| 2026-03-29 | Miami Heat | 1312.7 | +16.0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1296.7 | -3.6 |
| 2026-03-25 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1300.3 | -3.0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Orlando Magic | 1303.3 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Charlotte Hornets
3-2 in last 5
W
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns | 127 | 107 | +20 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 117 | 86 | +31 | |
| Boston Celtics | 99 | 114 | -15 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 114 | 118 | -4 | |
| New York Knicks | 114 | 103 | +11 |
Indiana Pacers
3-2 in last 5
W
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bulls | 145 | 126 | +19 | |
| Miami Heat | 135 | 118 | +17 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 113 | 114 | -1 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 130 | 137 | -7 | |
| Orlando Magic | 128 | 126 | +2 |
Game Analysis
Charlotte arrives 2-1 over the last three with an impressive 127-107 win over Phoenix and a 117-86 blowout of Brooklyn, sandwiched by a 99-114 loss to Boston — showing they can score in bunches but remain vulnerable to top defenses. Indiana is also 2-1, putting up massive offensive outputs in wins (145-126 vs Chicago, 135-118 vs Miami) and losing a one-point game to the Clippers, indicating hot scoring but inconsistent defense.
Looking at the projected starters, Charlotte’s five average an offensive rating of 122.56, defensive rating of 113.66, and 16.8 average points made per player; Indiana’s projected five average an offensive rating of 106.36, defensive rating of 119.68, and 11.3 average points made. Those gaps—especially Charlotte’s superior offensive profile and better defensive number—help explain the sizable edge.
Final Prediction
Charlotte’s stronger two-way numbers and deeper scoring from the starting five give them the clear advantage in this matchup. Watch how well Indiana can contain LaMelo, Brandon Miller and Moussa Diabaté early; that matchup will likely decide the game.
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