NBA 2025-2026: Dallas Mavericks vs Orlando Magic: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Dallas Mavericks
Home Team
38.2%
VS
Orlando Magic
Away Team
61.8%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Dallas Mavericks
Max Christie
PTS
12.3
REB
3.2
AST
2.3
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Cooper Flagg
PTS
23.1
REB
6.2
AST
5.1
3PM
1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Khris Middleton
PTS
12.7
REB
4.2
AST
3.7
3PM
1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Naji Marshall
PTS
19.2
REB
5.0
AST
4.3
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Daniel Gafford
PTS
13.0
REB
7.3
AST
1.6
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Orlando Magic
Jalen Suggs
PTS
15.5
REB
4.7
AST
6.9
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Desmond Bane
PTS
19.8
REB
4.1
AST
4.4
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Franz Wagner
PTS
20.1
REB
4.4
AST
3.5
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Paolo Banchero
PTS
23.8
REB
8.0
AST
5.6
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Wendell Carter Jr.
PTS
12.8
REB
7.6
AST
1.8
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Max Christie
OR
111.8
DR
119.0
PTS
12.2
VS
Jalen Suggs
OR
106.8
DR
109.3
PTS
13.7
SG
Cooper Flagg
OR
107.4
DR
114.8
PTS
20.3
VS
Desmond Bane
OR
119.5
DR
117.5
PTS
20.3
SF
Khris Middleton
OR
100.0
DR
122.7
PTS
11.0
VS
Franz Wagner
OR
121.8
DR
114.2
PTS
21.0
PF
Naji Marshall
OR
115.2
DR
117.0
PTS
15.5
VS
Paolo Banchero
OR
111.2
DR
115.5
PTS
22.4
C
Daniel Gafford
OR
121.0
DR
112.7
PTS
9.6
VS
Wendell Carter Jr.
OR
122.5
DR
113.8
PTS
11.8
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Orlando Magic by 61.8% probability. Expected starting five — Dallas Mavericks: Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Khris Middleton, Naji Marshall, Daniel Gafford. Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects 232.9 combined points, pointing to a fairly high-scoring game and a steady pace from both ends. The expected spread is -4.08 (Home − Away), which implies Orlando is roughly a 4-point favorite on the road against Dallas.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
232.9
Most likely outcome: 232 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Dallas Mavericks - Orlando Magic)
-4.1
Most likely outcome: -5 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show falling momentum in their Elo trends over the last five games.
Dallas Mavericks
1351.7
-6.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1351.7 | -10.1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1361.8 | -6.4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1368.2 | +13.9 |
| 2026-03-25 | Denver Nuggets | 1354.3 | -3.9 |
| 2026-03-23 | Golden State Warriors | 1358.2 | — |
Orlando Magic
1499.7
-9.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Atlanta Hawks | 1499.7 | -10.5 |
| 2026-03-31 | Phoenix Suns | 1510.2 | +10.1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Toronto Raptors | 1500.1 | -14.0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Sacramento Kings | 1514.1 | +4.7 |
| 2026-03-24 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1509.4 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Dallas Mavericks
1-4 in last 5
L
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks | 99 | 123 | -24 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 94 | 124 | -30 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 100 | 93 | +7 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 135 | 142 | -7 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 131 | 137 | -6 |
Orlando Magic
2-3 in last 5
L
W
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 101 | 130 | -29 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 115 | 111 | +4 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 87 | 139 | -52 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 121 | 117 | +4 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 131 | 136 | -5 |
Game Analysis
Dallas has lost two of its last three (99-123 vs Milwaukee, 94-124 vs Minnesota) but picked up a 100-93 win over Portland; those results suggest an offense that can sputter—scoring 99 and 94 in the losses—while still finding ways to grind out a defensive win. Orlando has been up-and-down: a strong 115-111 win over Phoenix sandwiched between heavy losses (101-130 vs Atlanta, 87-139 vs Toronto), indicating swings in consistency, especially on defense.
Looking at the projected starting fives, Dallas averages an offensive rating of 111.08, defensive rating of 117.24, and combined 13.72 points made per starter. Orlando’s projected starters average a 116.36 offensive rating, 114.06 defensive rating, and 17.84 points made per starter. Those numbers show Orlando’s starters bring more scoring and a modest defensive edge on paper, which helps explain the road favorite tag.
Final Prediction
Orlando’s higher offensive profile from the starting five and greater scoring output gives them the edge in this matchup. Watch whether Orlando can stop the recent defensive collapses (allowing 130 and 139) or if Dallas can exploit those lapses to keep it close.
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