NBA 2025-2026: Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Memphis Grizzlies
Home Team
31.7%
VS
Toronto Raptors
Away Team
68.3%
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HOME Memphis Grizzlies
Javon Small
PTS
10.2
REB
3.5
AST
4.9
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Cedric Coward
PTS
15.1
REB
5.3
AST
3.5
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Rayan Rupert
PTS
10.8
REB
5.2
AST
2.2
3PM
1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
GG Jackson II
PTS
15.4
REB
5.6
AST
2.9
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Taylor Hendricks
PTS
10.7
REB
5.7
AST
1.8
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Toronto Raptors
Jamal Shead
PTS
9.2
REB
2.9
AST
6.3
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Brandon Ingram
PTS
20.6
REB
5.2
AST
3.4
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
RJ Barrett
PTS
20.4
REB
5.7
AST
3.6
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Scottie Barnes
PTS
18.2
REB
7.1
AST
6.7
3PM
0.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jakob Poeltl
PTS
11.6
REB
7.5
AST
1.9
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Javon Small
OR
111.4
DR
121.5
PTS
9.3
VS
Jamal Shead
OR
113.8
DR
115.6
PTS
6.6
SG
Cedric Coward
OR
114.8
DR
117.9
PTS
13.4
VS
Brandon Ingram
OR
108.9
DR
115.1
PTS
21.4
SF
Rayan Rupert
OR
103.8
DR
120.8
PTS
10.1
VS
RJ Barrett
OR
115.4
DR
115.1
PTS
19.1
PF
GG Jackson II
OR
102.4
DR
103.9
PTS
12.2
VS
Scottie Barnes
OR
115.0
DR
110.4
PTS
18.3
C
Taylor Hendricks
OR
104.5
DR
120.6
PTS
10.4
VS
Jakob Poeltl
OR
129.2
DR
111.0
PTS
10.8
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Toronto Raptors are projected to win (68.3% probability).
Expected starting five — Memphis Grizzlies: Javon Small, Cedric Coward, Rayan Rupert, GG Jackson II, Taylor Hendricks.
Expected starting five — Toronto Raptors: Jamal Shead, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 226.57 points, indicating a moderately high-scoring game that leans toward a faster pace or inefficient defense on both ends. The spread (Home - Away = -7.86) favors the home team by about 7.9 points, giving Toronto a clear advantage on the board.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
226.6
Most likely outcome: 226 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Memphis Grizzlies - Toronto Raptors)
-7.9
Most likely outcome: -8 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Memphis has shown a modest decline in its power rating over five games while Toronto’s rating has been essentially stable.
Memphis Grizzlies
1341.2
-6.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | New York Knicks | 1341.2 | -4.4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Phoenix Suns | 1345.6 | -6.8 |
| 2026-03-28 | Chicago Bulls | 1352.4 | +10.5 |
| 2026-03-27 | Houston Rockets | 1341.9 | -5.4 |
| 2026-03-25 | San Antonio Spurs | 1347.3 | — |
Toronto Raptors
1515.9
-0.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Sacramento Kings | 1515.9 | -14.7 |
| 2026-03-31 | Detroit Pistons | 1530.6 | -7.1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Orlando Magic | 1537.7 | +14.0 |
| 2026-03-27 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1523.7 | +7.6 |
| 2026-03-25 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1516.1 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Memphis Grizzlies
1-4 in last 5
L
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 119 | 130 | -11 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 105 | 131 | -26 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 125 | 124 | +1 | |
| Houston Rockets | 109 | 119 | -10 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 98 | 123 | -25 |
Toronto Raptors
2-3 in last 5
L
L
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Kings | 115 | 123 | -8 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 116 | 127 | -11 | |
| Orlando Magic | 139 | 87 | +52 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 119 | 106 | +13 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 94 | 119 | -25 |
Game Analysis
Memphis arrives having lost two of its last three games (119-130 vs New York, 105-131 vs Phoenix) with a narrow 125-124 win over Chicago, suggesting defensive lapses in recent outings. Toronto has also lost two of three but produced a dominant 139-87 win against Orlando, pointing to upside when their offense clicks and occasional inconsistency otherwise. Both teams present recent volatility, but Toronto’s blowout win shows they can swing momentum quickly.
Looking at the projected starting fives, Memphis’ group averages roughly a 107.38 offensive rating, a 116.94 defensive rating, and 11.08 points made per starter — solid scoring contributors but a concerning team defensive profile. Toronto’s starters average about a 116.46 offensive rating, a 113.44 defensive rating, and 15.24 points made per starter, buoyed by Jakob Poeltl’s 129.2 offensive rating and higher scoring averages from Ingram, Barrett and Barnes.
Final Prediction
Toronto’s stronger starting-five offensive profile and home-court edge explain the projected 68.3% chance to win. Watch how well Toronto defends the paint and whether Poeltl can control the interior; that matchup could decide the margin.
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