NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs Chicago Bulls: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

New York Knicks

Home Team
80.2%
VS

Chicago Bulls

Away Team
19.8%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME New York Knicks
PTS 25.9 REB 4.0 AST 7.7 3PM 3.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 12.5 REB 7.1 AST 6.0 3PM 2.0
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PTS 14.1 REB 4.0 AST 4.3 3PM 2.6
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PTS 16.5 REB 5.5 AST 3.0 3PM 3.1
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PTS 20.6 REB 11.4 AST 4.1 3PM 1.6
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AWAY Chicago Bulls
PTS 18.1 REB 7.3 AST 9.5 3PM 1.9
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PTS 16.4 REB 4.1 AST 6.4 3PM 0.9
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PTS 10.8 REB 3.6 AST 1.9 3PM 1.7
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PTS 18.5 REB 6.2 AST 2.7 3PM 2.5
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PTS 9.9 REB 7.5 AST 1.2 3PM 0.1
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jalen Brunson
OR
120.8
DR
116.8
PTS
26.1
VS
Josh Giddey
OR
112.2
DR
116.7
PTS
17.2
SG
Josh Hart
OR
121.3
DR
111.2
PTS
12.2
VS
Tre Jones
OR
128.3
DR
118.3
PTS
13.4
SF
Mikal Bridges
OR
125.2
DR
113.9
PTS
14.7
VS
Isaac Okoro
OR
115.2
DR
121.2
PTS
9.3
PF
OG Anunoby
OR
117.2
DR
112.9
PTS
16.7
VS
Matas Buzelis
OR
108.9
DR
117.1
PTS
16.4
C
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
122.0
DR
110.3
PTS
20.1
VS
Nick Richards
OR
105.2
DR
115.8
PTS
9.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

New York Knicks are the pick to win (80.2% probability). Expected starting five — New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns. Expected starting five — Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey, Tre Jones, Isaac Okoro, Matas Buzelis, Nick Richards.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The game’s expected combined total is 235.64 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring contest and an uptempo pace. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 13.88, meaning the home team is projected to have roughly a 13.9-point advantage; if the Knicks are the home side, that margin lines up with the strong favorite status.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 235.6 Most likely outcome: 235 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Chicago Bulls) 13.9 Most likely outcome: 14 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ Elo trajectories are falling over the last five games, with the Knicks down 26.6 and the Bulls down 29.4.

New York Knicks

1593.9 -26.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-01 Memphis Grizzlies 1593.9 +4.5
2026-03-31 Houston Rockets 1589.4 -12.3
2026-03-29 Oklahoma City Thunder 1601.7 -7.6
2026-03-26 Charlotte Hornets 1609.3 -11.2
2026-03-24 New Orleans Pelicans 1620.5 —

Chicago Bulls

1373.0 -29.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-01 Indiana Pacers 1373.0 -13.7
2026-03-30 San Antonio Spurs 1386.7 -2.3
2026-03-28 Memphis Grizzlies 1389.0 -10.5
2026-03-27 Oklahoma City Thunder 1399.5 -2.9
2026-03-25 Philadelphia 76ers 1402.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

New York Knicks

2-3 in last 5
W L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Memphis Grizzlies 130 119 +11
Houston Rockets 94 111 -17
Oklahoma City Thunder 100 111 -11
Charlotte Hornets 103 114 -11
New Orleans Pelicans 121 116 +5

Chicago Bulls

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Indiana Pacers 126 145 -19
San Antonio Spurs 114 129 -15
Memphis Grizzlies 124 125 -1
Oklahoma City Thunder 113 131 -18
Philadelphia 76ers 137 157 -20

Game Analysis

Recent form favors New York in the short term: the Knicks are 1-2 over their last three with a 130-119 win over Memphis but back-to-back losses to Houston (94-111) and Oklahoma City (100-111). Chicago is sliding harder, 0-3 in their last three with heavy defensive lapses (including a 126-145 loss to Indiana) and a narrow 124-125 defeat to Memphis. The Bulls’ skid and the points they’ve allowed are a concern. Looking at the expected starting units, New York’s five average an offensive rating of 121.3 and a defensive rating of 113.0, with an average of 18.0 points made per starter (team starters combined average 17.96). Chicago’s projected five average a 114.0 offensive rating and a 117.8 defensive rating, and 13.1 points made per starter (13.14 combined). The Knicks’ higher offensive ceiling and cleaner defensive numbers give them a clear edge, especially with Brunson (26.1) and Towns (20.1) leading the scoring.

Final Prediction

The Knicks’ stronger two-way profile and superior scoring from their projected starters explain the sizable edge. Watch whether the Bulls can slow Brunson and Towns and tighten up defensively — that’s the game’s key factor.

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