NBA 2025-2026: Sacramento Kings vs New Orleans Pelicans: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Sacramento Kings

Home Team
23.5%
VS

New Orleans Pelicans

Away Team
76.5%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Sacramento Kings
PTS 12.7 REB 4.3 AST 4.9 3PM 1.7
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 10.6 REB 4.3 AST 3.8 3PM 1.6
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PTS 20.9 REB 3.8 AST 5.4 3PM 1.1
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PTS 14.0 REB 8.2 AST 2.2 3PM 0.4
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PTS 13.6 REB 8.2 AST 1.9 3PM 0.5
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AWAY New Orleans Pelicans
PTS 16.8 REB 3.7 AST 4.6 3PM 1.8
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PTS 11.6 REB 3.5 AST 3.6 3PM 2.0
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PTS 18.5 REB 5.0 AST 2.8 3PM 2.5
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PTS 21.3 REB 5.8 AST 3.2 3PM 3.3
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PTS 21.2 REB 6.1 AST 3.7 3PM 0.1
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Devin Carter
OR
97.9
DR
122.4
PTS
8.1
VS
Jeremiah Fears
OR
100.6
DR
119.3
PTS
13.1
SG
Nique Clifford
OR
91.8
DR
121.6
PTS
7.8
VS
Herbert Jones
OR
102.8
DR
117.6
PTS
9.0
SF
DeMar DeRozan
OR
121.4
DR
123.9
PTS
18.6
VS
Saddiq Bey
OR
121.0
DR
121.1
PTS
17.4
PF
Precious Achiuwa
OR
114.8
DR
118.9
PTS
9.9
VS
Trey Murphy III
OR
121.4
DR
119.0
PTS
21.6
C
Maxime Raynaud
OR
113.8
DR
120.9
PTS
11.9
VS
Zion Williamson
OR
126.7
DR
118.9
PTS
21.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The New Orleans Pelicans are the pick to win (76.5% probability). Expected starting fives — Sacramento Kings: Devin Carter, Nique Clifford, DeMar DeRozan, Precious Achiuwa, Maxime Raynaud; New Orleans Pelicans: Jeremiah Fears, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 232.12 points, suggesting a fairly fast-paced, high-scoring game where both teams should be able to generate offense. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -6.17, indicating roughly a 6.2-point edge for the Pelicans over the Kings.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 232.1 Most likely outcome: 232 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Sacramento Kings - New Orleans Pelicans) -6.2 Most likely outcome: -7 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams show falling momentum over the last five games, with Sacramento dipping modestly and New Orleans declining more sharply.

Sacramento Kings

1339.9 -5.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-01 Toronto Raptors 1339.9 +14.8
2026-03-29 Brooklyn Nets 1325.1 -11.9
2026-03-28 Atlanta Hawks 1337.0 -3.8
2026-03-26 Orlando Magic 1340.8 -4.7
2026-03-24 Charlotte Hornets 1345.5 —

New Orleans Pelicans

1419.4 -29.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-02 Portland Trail Blazers 1419.4 -7.7
2026-03-29 Houston Rockets 1427.1 -9.3
2026-03-27 Toronto Raptors 1436.4 -7.6
2026-03-26 Detroit Pistons 1444.0 -5.3
2026-03-24 New York Knicks 1449.3 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Sacramento Kings

1-4 in last 5
W L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Toronto Raptors 123 115 +8
Brooklyn Nets 99 116 -17
Atlanta Hawks 113 123 -10
Orlando Magic 117 121 -4
Charlotte Hornets 90 134 -44

New Orleans Pelicans

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Portland Trail Blazers 106 118 -12
Houston Rockets 102 134 -32
Toronto Raptors 106 119 -13
Detroit Pistons 108 129 -21
New York Knicks 116 121 -5

Game Analysis

Sacramento is 1-2 in its last three, beating Toronto 123-115 but dropping games to Brooklyn (99-116) and Atlanta (113-123). The Kings have been up-and-down offensively, with DeMar DeRozan (avg 18.6) carrying much of the scoring load. New Orleans is in a rough patch at 0-3, coming off losses 106-118, 102-134 and 106-119, a slide that underlines recent defensive lapses and inconsistent scoring support around Zion and Trey. The Pelicans’ projected starting five carries stronger aggregate numbers: average offensive rating 114.50, defensive rating 119.18, and average points made 16.46. The Kings’ starters average offensive rating 107.94, defensive rating 121.54, and average points made 11.26. That gap — especially on offense, led by Zion (OR 126.7) and Trey Murphy III (OR 121.4) — explains why New Orleans is favored despite its recent losses; Sacramento’s defense (team starter DRtg 121.54) will be tested.

Final Prediction

New Orleans’ higher offensive firepower and the starters’ scoring depth give them the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch: can Sacramento slow Zion and Trey enough to force the game into a closer, lower-scoring battle?

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