NBA 2025-2026: Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Denver Nuggets

Home Team
42.7%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
57.3%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Denver Nuggets
PTS 25.7 REB 4.2 AST 6.5 3PM 3.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.5 REB 4.0 AST 2.1 3PM 1.5
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.7 REB 5.7 AST 2.2 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.2 REB 3.9 AST 1.9 3PM 2.5
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 26.0 REB 12.7 AST 9.9 3PM 1.7
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY San Antonio Spurs
PTS 17.3 REB 3.4 AST 5.7 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.5 REB 5.1 AST 7.3 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.2 REB 3.9 AST 2.3 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.9 REB 5.0 AST 1.7 3PM 2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 25.9 REB 11.6 AST 3.2 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jamal Murray
OR
124.8
DR
119.7
PTS
25.6
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
119.0
DR
112.4
PTS
18.5
SG
Christian Braun
OR
124.3
DR
117.9
PTS
11.8
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
116.7
DR
111.2
PTS
16.6
SF
Aaron Gordon
OR
120.0
DR
115.3
PTS
16.3
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
117.6
DR
113.4
PTS
14.0
PF
Cameron Johnson
OR
123.5
DR
118.4
PTS
11.9
VS
Julian Champagnie
OR
118.0
DR
111.3
PTS
11.2
C
Nikola Jokić
OR
134.8
DR
112.4
PTS
27.7
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.2
DR
99.0
PTS
24.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are predicted to win (57.3% probability). Expected starting five — Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić. Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The models project a high-scoring game with an expected combined total of 234.92 points, suggesting a fast pace and plenty of offense. The expected spread is 2.12 points in favor of the home team (Home - Away = 2.12), which implies a slight edge to the home side on the scorebook. Note: two separate models are used here — one gives the win probability (favoring the Spurs) and another predicts point totals and spread — so the win probability and the spread can point in different directions and both are shown for transparency.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 234.9 Most likely outcome: 235 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Denver Nuggets - San Antonio Spurs) 2.1 Most likely outcome: 2 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams are rising: Denver +17.2 over five games, San Antonio +16.5 over five games.

Denver Nuggets

1595.5 +17.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-01 Utah Jazz 1595.5 +3.3
2026-03-29 Golden State Warriors 1592.2 +7.1
2026-03-27 Utah Jazz 1585.1 +2.9
2026-03-25 Dallas Mavericks 1582.2 +3.9
2026-03-24 Phoenix Suns 1578.3 —

San Antonio Spurs

1728.4 +16.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-02 Los Angeles Clippers 1728.4 +6.4
2026-04-01 Golden State Warriors 1722.0 +4.1
2026-03-30 Chicago Bulls 1717.9 +2.3
2026-03-28 Milwaukee Bucks 1715.6 +3.7
2026-03-25 Memphis Grizzlies 1711.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Denver Nuggets

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Utah Jazz 130 117 +13
Golden State Warriors 116 93 +23
Utah Jazz 135 129 +6
Dallas Mavericks 142 135 +7
Phoenix Suns 125 123 +2

San Antonio Spurs

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Clippers 118 99 +19
Golden State Warriors 127 113 +14
Chicago Bulls 129 114 +15
Milwaukee Bucks 127 95 +32
Memphis Grizzlies 123 98 +25

Game Analysis

Both clubs come in on three-game win streaks. Denver beat Utah (130-117), Golden State (116-93), and Utah again (135-129), showing the Nuggets can put up points and close out games. San Antonio has also been dominant, beating the Clippers (118-99), Warriors (127-113), and Bulls (129-114), with comfortable margins that reflect both offensive firepower and strong defense. Looking at the expected starters, Denver’s five average OFFENSIVE RATING is 125.48, DEFENSIVE RATING 116.74, and average POINTS MADE 18.66 per starter. San Antonio’s five average OFFENSIVE RATING is 118.30, DEFENSIVE RATING 109.46, and average POINTS MADE 17.00. Nuggets bring a higher-scoring starting group, but the Spurs’ significantly better defensive rating — anchored by Victor Wembanyama’s 99.0 — is the counterbalance that likely swings the outcome.

Final Prediction

San Antonio’s edge comes from a stingier starting-five defense and recent dominant wins, which the win-probability model favors. Key factor to watch: how well Denver’s offensive balance handles Wembanyama’s rim protection and the Spurs’ overall defensive cohesion.

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