NBA 2025-2026: Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Boston Celtics

Home Team
62.3%
VS

Toronto Raptors

Away Team
37.7%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Boston Celtics
PTS 16.5 REB 3.8 AST 5.1 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 30.4 REB 5.7 AST 6.1 3PM 2.4
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 24.7 REB 8.9 AST 6.4 3PM 3.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.6 REB 3.7 AST 1.5 3PM 2.5
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PTS 12.6 REB 8.5 AST 1.8 3PM 0.0
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AWAY Toronto Raptors
PTS 9.1 REB 3.4 AST 1.8 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.4 REB 4.7 AST 2.9 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.8 REB 5.0 AST 3.2 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.5 REB 6.2 AST 6.3 3PM 0.7
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.8 REB 6.7 AST 1.8 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Derrick White
OR
117.5
DR
112.7
PTS
16.8
VS
Ja'Kobe Walter
OR
110.4
DR
114.2
PTS
7.2
SG
Jaylen Brown
OR
115.0
DR
113.7
PTS
28.7
VS
Brandon Ingram
OR
109.3
DR
114.9
PTS
21.4
SF
Jayson Tatum
OR
113.4
DR
107.4
PTS
21.4
VS
RJ Barrett
OR
115.7
DR
114.9
PTS
19.2
PF
Sam Hauser
OR
117.4
DR
115.6
PTS
9.1
VS
Scottie Barnes
OR
114.7
DR
110.1
PTS
18.2
C
Neemias Queta
OR
135.9
DR
108.2
PTS
10.1
VS
Jakob Poeltl
OR
130.0
DR
110.3
PTS
10.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Boston Celtics are predicted to win (62.3% probability). Expected starting fives — Boston: Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta. Toronto: Ja'Kobe Walter, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined total of 223.32 points, suggesting a relatively high-scoring game and an uptempo matchup. The expected spread is Home - Away = 7.69, which implies the home team holds roughly a 7.7-point edge — consistent with the Celtics being favored.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 223.3 Most likely outcome: 223 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Boston Celtics - Toronto Raptors) 7.7 Most likely outcome: 7 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Boston’s power rating has risen over the last five games while Toronto’s has been essentially flat to slightly down.

Boston Celtics

1651.7 +10.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-03 Milwaukee Bucks 1651.7 +5.0
2026-04-01 Miami Heat 1646.7 +7.8
2026-03-30 Atlanta Hawks 1638.9 -12.2
2026-03-29 Charlotte Hornets 1651.1 +9.9
2026-03-27 Atlanta Hawks 1641.2 —

Toronto Raptors

1522.9 -0.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-03 Memphis Grizzlies 1522.9 +7.0
2026-04-01 Sacramento Kings 1515.9 -14.7
2026-03-31 Detroit Pistons 1530.6 -7.1
2026-03-29 Orlando Magic 1537.7 +14.0
2026-03-27 New Orleans Pelicans 1523.7 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Boston Celtics

4-1 in last 5
W W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Milwaukee Bucks 133 101 +32
Miami Heat 147 129 +18
Atlanta Hawks 102 112 -10
Charlotte Hornets 114 99 +15
Atlanta Hawks 109 102 +7

Toronto Raptors

3-2 in last 5
W L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Memphis Grizzlies 128 96 +32
Sacramento Kings 115 123 -8
Detroit Pistons 116 127 -11
Orlando Magic 139 87 +52
New Orleans Pelicans 119 106 +13

Game Analysis

Boston has won two of its last three, including big offensive outings (133-101 vs Milwaukee and 147-129 vs Miami) after a 102-112 loss to Atlanta; those scores show the Celtics can pile up points when rolling. Toronto is 1-2 over the last three, with a dominant 128-96 win over Memphis but back-to-back losses (115-123 vs Sacramento, 116-127 vs Detroit), indicating some inconsistency on defense. Looking at the projected starters, Boston’s five average an offensive rating of 119.84 and a defensive rating of 111.52, with an average of 17.22 points made per starter. Toronto’s projected five average an offensive rating of 116.02 and a defensive rating of 112.88, with 15.36 points made per starter. On paper that gives Boston a mild edge on both ends; Neemias Queta (135.9 ORtg) and Jakob Poeltl (130.0 ORtg) stand out as interior scoring influences to monitor.

Final Prediction

The Celtics’ recent uptick in team rating, stronger offensive profile, and higher scoring output explain the projected edge. Key factor to watch: interior play and how well Toronto’s defense contains Boston’s scoring bursts.

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