NBA 2025-2026: Brooklyn Nets vs Washington Wizards: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Brooklyn Nets

Home Team
36.2%
VS

Washington Wizards

Away Team
63.8%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Brooklyn Nets
PTS 15.1 REB 3.4 AST 5.7 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.5 REB 3.3 AST 2.2 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.0 REB 4.4 AST 2.7 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.2 REB 5.5 AST 2.7 3PM 0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.2 REB 4.6 AST 1.6 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Washington Wizards
PTS 12.6 REB 3.5 AST 5.2 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.4 REB 3.8 AST 2.6 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.8 REB 5.0 AST 2.4 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.2 REB 4.2 AST 2.6 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.8 REB 4.9 AST 1.8 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Nolan Traoré
OR
92.5
DR
121.8
PTS
8.6
VS
Bub Carrington
OR
106.6
DR
125.3
PTS
10.2
SG
Drake Powell
OR
101.4
DR
121.1
PTS
6.3
VS
Tre Johnson
OR
103.2
DR
124.6
PTS
12.2
SF
Terance Mann
OR
115.1
DR
121.3
PTS
7.2
VS
Bilal Coulibaly
OR
106.9
DR
120.4
PTS
11.4
PF
Chaney Johnson
OR
117.2
DR
118.5
PTS
7.8
VS
Will Riley
OR
107.9
DR
125.1
PTS
10.0
C
Josh Minott
OR
102.9
DR
121.3
PTS
10.5
VS
Tristan Vukcevic
OR
95.7
DR
122.4
PTS
9.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Washington wins (63.8% probability). Expected starting five — Brooklyn Nets: Nolan Traoré, Drake Powell, Terance Mann, Chaney Johnson, Josh Minott. Expected starting five — Washington Wizards: Bub Carrington, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, Will Riley, Tristan Vukcevic.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model forecasts a combined total of 232.28 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring contest and a brisk pace. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 1.05 points, a very slim margin that would give a hairline advantage to the home team. Note: the win probability and the spread come from two separate predictive approaches — the probability model favors Washington while the spread model is shown for transparency.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 232.3 Most likely outcome: 232 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Brooklyn Nets - Washington Wizards) 1.1 Most likely outcome: 1 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Brooklyn’s power rating has been essentially stable (+0.5 over five games) while Washington’s has been sliding (-17.6 over five games).

Brooklyn Nets

1303.1 +0.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-03 Atlanta Hawks 1303.1 -4.4
2026-03-31 Charlotte Hornets 1307.5 -4.4
2026-03-29 Sacramento Kings 1311.9 +11.9
2026-03-27 Los Angeles Lakers 1300.0 -2.6
2026-03-25 Golden State Warriors 1302.6 —

Washington Wizards

1289.7 -17.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-04 Miami Heat 1289.7 -4.2
2026-04-01 Philadelphia 76ers 1293.9 -5.3
2026-03-30 Los Angeles Lakers 1299.2 -2.5
2026-03-29 Portland Trail Blazers 1301.7 -5.6
2026-03-27 Golden State Warriors 1307.3 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Brooklyn Nets

1-4 in last 5
L L W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Atlanta Hawks 107 141 -34
Charlotte Hornets 86 117 -31
Sacramento Kings 116 99 +17
Los Angeles Lakers 99 116 -17
Golden State Warriors 106 109 -3

Washington Wizards

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Miami Heat 136 152 -16
Philadelphia 76ers 131 153 -22
Los Angeles Lakers 101 120 -19
Portland Trail Blazers 88 123 -35
Golden State Warriors 126 131 -5

Game Analysis

Brooklyn is coming off two tough losses and a bounce-back 116-99 win; their recent results show inconsistency, especially defensively when they allowed 141 and 117 points in losses. Washington has lost three straight (152, 153, 120 against them), a worrying run defensively and offensively uneven showing in blowouts and closer contests. Looking at the projected starters, Brooklyn’s five combine for an average offensive rating of 105.82, defensive rating of 120.80, and average points made per starter of 8.08. Washington’s projected five average a 104.06 offensive rating, 123.56 defensive rating, and 10.56 points made per starter. Brooklyn’s edge on paper is in team efficiency on both ends, while Washington’s starters produce more scoring per player.

Final Prediction

Washington gets the nod chiefly because their individual scorers (higher average points made) can tip a close game, and the probability model favors them by a clear margin. Keep an eye on which team can clean up defense early — that will decide a one-point game.

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