NBA 2025-2026: Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Lakers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Dallas Mavericks

Home Team
50.8%
VS

Los Angeles Lakers

Away Team
49.2%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Dallas Mavericks
PTS 11.8 REB 3.0 AST 2.9 3PM 2.4
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 22.9 REB 5.9 AST 5.3 3PM 1.6
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PTS 17.2 REB 4.4 AST 4.1 3PM 1.4
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.5 REB 7.2 AST 2.2 3PM 1.6
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PTS 11.5 REB 6.7 AST 1.5 3PM 0.0
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AWAY Los Angeles Lakers
PTS 9.3 REB 2.7 AST 2.7 3PM 1.9
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 21.1 REB 6.0 AST 7.4 3PM 1.6
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 8.7 REB 4.3 AST 2.1 3PM 1.1
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 11.3 REB 3.5 AST 1.2 3PM 1.8
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PTS 11.8 REB 7.3 AST 1.1 3PM 0.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Max Christie
OR
112.4
DR
119.2
PTS
12.2
VS
Luke Kennard
OR
124.5
DR
118.6
PTS
8.4
SG
Cooper Flagg
OR
108.1
DR
115.0
PTS
20.8
VS
LeBron James
OR
118.2
DR
116.7
PTS
20.6
SF
Naji Marshall
OR
114.9
DR
117.2
PTS
15.4
VS
Jake LaRavia
OR
115.0
DR
116.2
PTS
8.3
PF
P.J. Washington
OR
103.6
DR
114.0
PTS
14.1
VS
Rui Hachimura
OR
116.7
DR
120.0
PTS
11.1
C
Daniel Gafford
OR
121.3
DR
112.8
PTS
9.6
VS
Deandre Ayton
OR
125.8
DR
114.9
PTS
12.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives the Dallas Mavericks the edge — Winner: Dallas Mavericks, Probability: 50.8%. Expected starting five — Dallas Mavericks: Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford. Expected starting five — Los Angeles Lakers: Luke Kennard, LeBron James, Jake LaRavia, Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected combined total is 226.13 points, suggesting a moderately paced game with room for both teams to score in transition and in halfcourt sets. The expected spread is -3.12 (Home - Away), which favors the home team by about 3.1 points. Note: two separate models are being shown — one produces the straight-up win probability (which favors Dallas) and a different model produces the point spread (which favors the home team) — both are presented for transparency.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 226.1 Most likely outcome: 226 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Dallas Mavericks - Los Angeles Lakers) -3.1 Most likely outcome: -4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Dallas is on a losing trend (falling from 1354.3 to 1345.1), while Los Angeles has been rising overall (from 1610.3 to 1616.1).

Dallas Mavericks

1345.1 -9.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-03 Orlando Magic 1345.1 -6.6
2026-03-31 Milwaukee Bucks 1351.7 -10.1
2026-03-30 Minnesota Timberwolves 1361.8 -6.4
2026-03-27 Portland Trail Blazers 1368.2 +13.9
2026-03-25 Denver Nuggets 1354.3 —

Los Angeles Lakers

1616.1 +5.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-02 Oklahoma City Thunder 1616.1 -9.3
2026-03-31 Cleveland Cavaliers 1625.4 +10.0
2026-03-30 Washington Wizards 1615.4 +2.5
2026-03-27 Brooklyn Nets 1612.9 +2.6
2026-03-25 Indiana Pacers 1610.3 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Dallas Mavericks

1-4 in last 5
L L L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Orlando Magic 127 138 -11
Milwaukee Bucks 99 123 -24
Minnesota Timberwolves 94 124 -30
Portland Trail Blazers 100 93 +7
Denver Nuggets 135 142 -7

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 in last 5
L W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 96 139 -43
Cleveland Cavaliers 127 113 +14
Washington Wizards 120 101 +19
Brooklyn Nets 116 99 +17
Indiana Pacers 137 130 +7

Game Analysis

Dallas enters on a three-game losing streak (losses 127-138, 99-123, 94-124) and will need to stop the bleeding defensively. Los Angeles is 2-1 over its last three with a dominant 139-96 win but also two comfortable wins (127-113, 120-101) showing they can both blow out and close games. Recent form favors the Lakers for momentum, but Dallas has reasons for optimism. Looking at the expected starters: Dallas’s five average offensive rating is 112.06, defensive rating 115.64, and average points made 14.42. The Lakers’ starters average a 120.04 offensive rating, 117.28 defensive rating, and 12.16 average points made. In short: Los Angeles projects a stronger offense on paper, while Dallas’s starting five brings slightly better team defense and more scoring per starter.

Final Prediction

Dallas is picked narrowly because its starting group combines a marginally better defensive profile and higher per-starter scoring, which could matter in a tight game. Key factor to watch: the interior matchup between Daniel Gafford and Deandre Ayton — whoever controls the paint will likely tip the balance.

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