NBA 2025-2026: Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Golden State Warriors

Home Team
58.5%
VS

Houston Rockets

Away Team
41.5%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Golden State Warriors
PTS 14.6 REB 4.3 AST 4.0 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.8 REB 3.8 AST 4.4 3PM 3.1
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.3 REB 5.5 AST 6.0 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.8 REB 5.1 AST 3.6 3PM 1.7
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.3 REB 5.8 AST 2.7 3PM 2.2
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Houston Rockets
PTS 13.1 REB 3.3 AST 3.7 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.9 REB 6.6 AST 4.8 3PM 0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.7 REB 6.1 AST 1.8 3PM 2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 22.4 REB 5.3 AST 5.1 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.8 REB 8.1 AST 5.3 3PM 0.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Anthony Melton
OR
95.8
DR
113.3
PTS
12.5
VS
Reed Sheppard
OR
117.5
DR
112.3
PTS
13.6
SG
Stephen Curry
OR
118.8
DR
116.7
PTS
27.2
VS
Amen Thompson
OR
124.8
DR
113.9
PTS
17.9
SF
Draymond Green
OR
103.4
DR
114.5
PTS
8.6
VS
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
121.6
DR
114.4
PTS
15.6
PF
Gui Santos
OR
116.0
DR
114.4
PTS
9.2
VS
Kevin Durant
OR
125.0
DR
114.9
PTS
25.8
C
Kristaps Porziņģis
OR
112.7
DR
117.7
PTS
17.5
VS
Alperen Şengün
OR
117.4
DR
111.6
PTS
20.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The Golden State Warriors are the projected winner (58.5% probability). Expected starting five — Golden State: De'Anthony Melton, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Gui Santos, Kristaps Porziņģis. Houston: Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 230.08 points, signaling a game that should play at a fairly high scoring pace. The expected spread is Home - Away = -0.56, a razor-thin number that slightly favors the away team (Houston) by about half a point. Note: two separate models are shown — one gives the win probability (favoring Golden State) and a different model projects the point spread (slightly favoring Houston); both are provided for transparency.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 230.1 Most likely outcome: 230 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Golden State Warriors - Houston Rockets) -0.6 Most likely outcome: -1 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Golden State’s power rating has fallen over the last five games while Houston’s has been rising strongly.

Golden State Warriors

1447.4 -12.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-02 Cleveland Cavaliers 1447.4 -6.5
2026-04-01 San Antonio Spurs 1453.9 -4.2
2026-03-29 Denver Nuggets 1458.1 -7.1
2026-03-27 Washington Wizards 1465.2 +5.3
2026-03-25 Brooklyn Nets 1459.9 —

Houston Rockets

1578.4 +30.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-03 Utah Jazz 1578.4 +3.7
2026-04-01 Milwaukee Bucks 1574.7 +4.8
2026-03-31 New York Knicks 1569.9 +12.3
2026-03-29 New Orleans Pelicans 1557.6 +9.2
2026-03-27 Memphis Grizzlies 1548.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Golden State Warriors

2-3 in last 5
L L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Cleveland Cavaliers 111 118 -7
San Antonio Spurs 113 127 -14
Denver Nuggets 93 116 -23
Washington Wizards 131 126 +5
Brooklyn Nets 109 106 +3

Houston Rockets

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Utah Jazz 140 106 +34
Milwaukee Bucks 119 113 +6
New York Knicks 111 94 +17
New Orleans Pelicans 134 102 +32
Memphis Grizzlies 119 109 +10

Game Analysis

Golden State arrives on a three-game losing streak (losses to Cleveland 111-118, San Antonio 113-127, Denver 93-116), showing recent offensive and defensive struggles. Houston is the opposite: three straight wins (140-106 vs Utah, 119-113 vs Milwaukee, 111-94 vs New York) and looks to be peaking. That momentum gap is stark and explains much of the matchup chatter. Looking at the expected starting fives, Golden State’s unit averages an offensive rating of 109.34, defensive rating of 115.32, and 15.0 points made per starter. Houston’s projected five averages a 121.26 offensive rating, 113.42 defensive rating, and 18.7 points made per starter. Houston’s starting five shows a clear offensive edge, but matchups, experience and situational factors keep this one close.

Final Prediction

The model gives Golden State the edge overall despite Houston’s hot streak because the probability calculation factors in more than recent form; expect a tight, high-scoring game. Key factor to watch: how Golden State defends Kevin Durant and Alperen Şengün while getting enough offense from Stephen Curry and Kristaps Porziņģis.

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