NBA 2025-2026: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Charlotte Hornets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Minnesota Timberwolves

Home Team
63.5%
VS

Charlotte Hornets

Away Team
36.5%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Minnesota Timberwolves
PTS 25.1 REB 4.1 AST 4.1 3PM 2.7
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.2 REB 5.3 AST 5.1 3PM 2.0
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PTS 14.3 REB 3.7 AST 3.2 3PM 3.1
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PTS 23.1 REB 6.9 AST 5.1 3PM 1.5
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PTS 12.7 REB 11.5 AST 1.6 3PM 0.0
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AWAY Charlotte Hornets
PTS 20.0 REB 4.7 AST 6.9 3PM 3.6
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PTS 19.6 REB 5.0 AST 3.2 3PM 3.1
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PTS 17.1 REB 5.3 AST 2.8 3PM 2.8
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 16.9 REB 5.5 AST 2.4 3PM 2.0
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PTS 6.9 REB 9.1 AST 1.4 3PM 0.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Anthony Edwards
OR
117.2
DR
115.0
PTS
28.9
VS
LaMelo Ball
OR
116.2
DR
113.3
PTS
19.5
SG
Ayo Dosunmu
OR
120.5
DR
112.0
PTS
14.0
VS
Brandon Miller
OR
115.1
DR
112.8
PTS
20.4
SF
Donte DiVincenzo
OR
114.7
DR
113.9
PTS
12.3
VS
Kon Knueppel
OR
126.1
DR
116.0
PTS
18.8
PF
Julius Randle
OR
116.6
DR
113.7
PTS
21.1
VS
Miles Bridges
OR
119.7
DR
115.0
PTS
17.2
C
Rudy Gobert
OR
131.3
DR
109.5
PTS
11.0
VS
Moussa Diabaté
OR
136.3
DR
111.1
PTS
8.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The Minnesota Timberwolves are the pick to win (63.5% probability). Expected starting five — Minnesota: Anthony Edwards, Ayo Dosunmu, Donte DiVincenzo, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert; Charlotte: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabaté

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined total of 226.44 points, pointing to a moderately fast, high-scoring game rather than a defensive grind. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 2.4, giving the home team a 2.4-point edge; Minnesota’s 63.5% win probability indicates they’re expected to either cover that margin or overcome it if they’re the visitor.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 226.4 Most likely outcome: 226 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Minnesota Timberwolves - Charlotte Hornets) 2.4 Most likely outcome: 2 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Minnesota’s power rating has been falling over the last five games while Charlotte’s has been rising.

Minnesota Timberwolves

1557.6 -23.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-03 Philadelphia 76ers 1557.6 -11.6
2026-04-02 Detroit Pistons 1569.2 -7.6
2026-03-30 Dallas Mavericks 1576.8 +6.4
2026-03-28 Detroit Pistons 1570.4 -10.9
2026-03-25 Houston Rockets 1581.3 —

Charlotte Hornets

1598.2 +6.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-03 Indiana Pacers 1598.2 +3.4
2026-04-02 Phoenix Suns 1594.8 +8.7
2026-03-31 Brooklyn Nets 1586.1 +4.4
2026-03-29 Boston Celtics 1581.7 -9.9
2026-03-28 Philadelphia 76ers 1591.6 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Minnesota Timberwolves

2-3 in last 5
L L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Philadelphia 76ers 103 115 -12
Detroit Pistons 108 113 -5
Dallas Mavericks 124 94 +30
Detroit Pistons 87 109 -22
Houston Rockets 110 108 +2

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 in last 5
W W W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Indiana Pacers 129 108 +21
Phoenix Suns 127 107 +20
Brooklyn Nets 117 86 +31
Boston Celtics 99 114 -15
Philadelphia 76ers 114 118 -4

Game Analysis

Minnesota arrives with two straight losses (103-115 vs Philadelphia, 108-113 vs Detroit) but a convincing bounce-back win (124-94 vs Dallas). That pattern suggests inconsistency: they can score in bunches (the Dallas win) but have been vulnerable defensively in the losses. Charlotte, by contrast, is on a three-game winning streak (129-108, 127-107, 117-86) and looks sharp on both ends recently. Looking at the starters, Minnesota’s five average to an offensive rating of about 120.06, a defensive rating of about 112.82, and average points made of 17.46; Charlotte’s starters average an offensive rating of about 122.68, a defensive rating of about 113.64, and average points made of 16.78. Charlotte’s slight offensive edge is real, but Minnesota’s marginally better team defense and the star scoring of Anthony Edwards (28.9 PPG) and Rudy Gobert’s strong defensive profile tilt things.

Final Prediction

Minnesota’s combination of top-end scoring and a stronger defensive baseline gives them the edge in this matchup. Watch how Minnesota defends Charlotte’s recent hot offense—if they contain LaMelo and Brandon Miller, Minnesota should control the game.

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