NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
77.1%
VS

Philadelphia 76ers

Away Team
22.9%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME San Antonio Spurs
PTS 16.6 REB 3.7 AST 6.2 3PM 1.8
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 17.8 REB 5.6 AST 7.9 3PM 1.4
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PTS 13.7 REB 4.2 AST 2.7 3PM 2.7
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PTS 12.2 REB 5.2 AST 1.9 3PM 2.8
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PTS 26.2 REB 12.6 AST 4.2 3PM 2.0
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AWAY Philadelphia 76ers
PTS 26.7 REB 4.3 AST 5.9 3PM 2.9
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PTS 16.5 REB 4.4 AST 3.5 3PM 2.1
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PTS 14.1 REB 4.8 AST 1.7 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 21.1 REB 5.6 AST 3.9 3PM 3.1
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PTS 27.7 REB 7.7 AST 3.6 3PM 2.1
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.4
DR
112.7
PTS
18.5
VS
Tyrese Maxey
OR
121.3
DR
115.7
PTS
28.6
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
116.7
DR
111.5
PTS
16.7
VS
VJ Edgecombe
OR
113.5
DR
116.7
PTS
16.1
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
117.8
DR
113.7
PTS
14.0
VS
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
109.5
DR
117.4
PTS
14.3
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
118.5
DR
111.6
PTS
11.3
VS
Paul George
OR
113.6
DR
112.3
PTS
17.8
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.8
DR
99.2
PTS
24.9
VS
Joel Embiid
OR
117.9
DR
114.4
PTS
26.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The San Antonio Spurs are the pick to win (77.1% probability). Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama Expected starting five — Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Kelly Oubre Jr., Paul George, Joel Embiid

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 234.87 points, pointing to a high-scoring game and a fairly up-tempo matchup if both offenses show up. The expected spread is Home - Away = 9.59, which gives a 9.59-point advantage to the home team, even though the prediction still favors San Antonio.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 234.9 Most likely outcome: 234 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Philadelphia 76ers) 9.6 Most likely outcome: 9 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio’s power rating is slightly up over five games (+0.5), while Philadelphia’s is down modestly (-1.8), indicating a bit more momentum for the Spurs.

San Antonio Spurs

1716.1 +0.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-04 Denver Nuggets 1716.1 -12.3
2026-04-02 Los Angeles Clippers 1728.4 +6.4
2026-04-01 Golden State Warriors 1722.0 +4.1
2026-03-30 Chicago Bulls 1717.9 +2.3
2026-03-28 Milwaukee Bucks 1715.6 —

Philadelphia 76ers

1525.9 -1.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-04 Detroit Pistons 1525.9 -8.1
2026-04-03 Minnesota Timberwolves 1534.0 +11.7
2026-04-01 Washington Wizards 1522.3 +5.4
2026-03-30 Miami Heat 1516.9 -10.8
2026-03-28 Charlotte Hornets 1527.7 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

4-1 in last 5
L W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 134 136 -2
Los Angeles Clippers 118 99 +19
Golden State Warriors 127 113 +14
Chicago Bulls 129 114 +15
Milwaukee Bucks 127 95 +32

Philadelphia 76ers

3-2 in last 5
L W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Detroit Pistons 93 116 -23
Minnesota Timberwolves 115 103 +12
Washington Wizards 153 131 +22
Miami Heat 109 119 -10
Charlotte Hornets 118 114 +4

Game Analysis

San Antonio arrives with two solid wins (118-99 vs Clippers, 127-113 vs Warriors) and a narrow 134-136 loss to Denver, showing they can both score in bunches and hang in shootouts. Philadelphia is 2-1 over the last three but with volatility: a heavy 93-116 loss to Detroit sandwiched around wins of 115-103 and 153-131, suggesting streaky offense and an uneven night on defense. Looking at the expected starters, the Spurs’ five average Offensive Rating is 118.44, Defensive Rating 109.74, and average points made 17.08. The 76ers’ starters average Offensive Rating 115.16, Defensive Rating 115.30, and average points made 20.70. Spurs have the edge defensively (109.74 vs 115.30) and a slightly higher offensive profile (118.44 vs 115.16); Philadelphia leans on higher individual scoring from Maxey and Embiid (combined average 55.3).

Final Prediction

San Antonio’s combination of a stronger overall defensive profile and recent positive form explains the edge. Watch the Wembanyama vs. Embiid/Maxey dynamic — how Wembanyama impacts Philadelphia’s scoring will likely decide the outcome.

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