NBA 2025-2026: Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Golden State Warriors

Home Team
77.5%
VS

Sacramento Kings

Away Team
22.5%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Golden State Warriors
PTS 13.5 REB 3.6 AST 4.5 3PM 2.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 27.6 REB 3.6 AST 5.4 3PM 4.2
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PTS 17.8 REB 5.4 AST 5.2 3PM 2.3
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PTS 10.9 REB 5.8 AST 6.7 3PM 1.9
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PTS 20.4 REB 6.3 AST 2.9 3PM 2.2
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AWAY Sacramento Kings
PTS 12.7 REB 4.0 AST 4.2 3PM 1.6
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PTS 11.8 REB 3.8 AST 3.6 3PM 1.7
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.8 REB 3.0 AST 3.9 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 13.1 REB 7.5 AST 1.8 3PM 0.5
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PTS 14.0 REB 8.3 AST 1.8 3PM 0.5
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Anthony Melton
OR
96.5
DR
113.6
PTS
12.4
VS
Devin Carter
OR
97.9
DR
122.5
PTS
8.5
SG
Stephen Curry
OR
118.8
DR
116.9
PTS
27.2
VS
Nique Clifford
OR
92.4
DR
121.7
PTS
8.2
SF
Brandin Podziemski
OR
115.4
DR
115.5
PTS
13.5
VS
DeMar DeRozan
OR
121.8
DR
124.0
PTS
18.4
PF
Draymond Green
OR
104.5
DR
114.6
PTS
8.6
VS
Precious Achiuwa
OR
114.4
DR
119.1
PTS
9.9
C
Kristaps Porziņģis
OR
112.8
DR
118.3
PTS
16.8
VS
Maxime Raynaud
OR
114.3
DR
121.0
PTS
12.1
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Golden State Warriors are picked to win with a probability of 82.3%. Expected starting fives — Golden State Warriors: De'Anthony Melton, Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Kristaps Porziņģis. Sacramento Kings: Devin Carter, Nique Clifford, DeMar DeRozan, Precious Achiuwa, Maxime Raynaud.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 230.96 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and an up-tempo look from both teams. The expected spread is 10.27 points in favor of the home team, giving the Warriors a comfortable double-digit cushion in this projection.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 231.0 Most likely outcome: 230 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Golden State Warriors - Sacramento Kings) 10.3 Most likely outcome: 10 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Golden State’s rating trend is falling over recent games while Sacramento’s trend is mildly rising.

Golden State Warriors

1440.7 -24.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-05 Houston Rockets 1440.7 -6.7
2026-04-02 Cleveland Cavaliers 1447.4 -6.5
2026-04-01 San Antonio Spurs 1453.9 -4.2
2026-03-29 Denver Nuggets 1458.1 -7.1
2026-03-27 Washington Wizards 1465.2 —

Sacramento Kings

1344.9 +7.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-05 Los Angeles Clippers 1344.9 -6.5
2026-04-03 New Orleans Pelicans 1351.4 +11.5
2026-04-01 Toronto Raptors 1339.9 +14.8
2026-03-29 Brooklyn Nets 1325.1 -11.9
2026-03-28 Atlanta Hawks 1337.0 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Golden State Warriors

1-4 in last 5
L L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Houston Rockets 116 117 -1
Cleveland Cavaliers 111 118 -7
San Antonio Spurs 113 127 -14
Denver Nuggets 93 116 -23
Washington Wizards 131 126 +5

Sacramento Kings

2-3 in last 5
L W W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Clippers 109 138 -29
New Orleans Pelicans 117 113 +4
Toronto Raptors 123 115 +8
Brooklyn Nets 99 116 -17
Atlanta Hawks 113 123 -10

Game Analysis

Golden State arrives on a three-game skid (losses to Houston 116-117, Cleveland 111-118, San Antonio 113-127) that looks like growing defensive issues and inconsistent results. Sacramento is 2-1 in the last three (wins over Toronto 123-115 and New Orleans 117-113, then a blowout loss to the Clippers 109-138), showing offensive upside but defensive volatility. The Kings have momentum in results but showed they can be uprooted by a hot opponent. Looking at the starters: Warriors’ five average an offensive rating of 109.6, defensive rating of 115.8, and average points made 15.7 per starter; Kings’ five average offensive 108.2, defensive 121.7, and 11.4 points made per starter. That gap on defense and the higher per-starter scoring for Golden State helps explain the projected margin, while DeMar DeRozan (offensive rating 121.8, 18.4 PPG) and Stephen Curry (offensive rating 118.8, 27.2 PPG) remain the primary matchups to watch.

Final Prediction

Golden State’s combination of more balanced starter scoring and a noticeably better defensive profile gives them the edge in this projection. Key factor to watch: whether the Warriors can limit DeMar DeRozan and force Sacramento’s role players into inefficient scoring.

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