NBA 2025-2026: New Orleans Pelicans vs Utah Jazz: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
New Orleans Pelicans
Home Team
40.4%
VS
Utah Jazz
Away Team
59.6%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME New Orleans Pelicans
Jeremiah Fears
PTS
18.3
REB
4.3
AST
5.5
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Herbert Jones
PTS
11.1
REB
3.7
AST
3.7
3PM
2.2
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Saddiq Bey
PTS
20.2
REB
5.5
AST
3.3
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
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Zion Williamson
PTS
21.3
REB
6.5
AST
4.5
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
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Yves Missi
PTS
9.7
REB
7.8
AST
1.6
3PM
0.0
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AWAY Utah Jazz
Cody Williams
PTS
13.1
REB
4.5
AST
4.0
3PM
0.8
Distribution (PDF)
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John Konchar
PTS
7.3
REB
6.1
AST
3.9
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Brice Sensabaugh
PTS
18.9
REB
4.5
AST
3.8
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
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Kyle Filipowski
PTS
16.1
REB
9.0
AST
3.9
3PM
1.4
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Oscar Tshiebwe
PTS
8.4
REB
7.9
AST
1.9
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jeremiah Fears
OR
101.1
DR
119.2
PTS
13.4
VS
Cody Williams
OR
99.1
DR
124.8
PTS
8.5
SG
Herbert Jones
OR
102.9
DR
117.3
PTS
8.9
VS
John Konchar
OR
114.4
DR
118.2
PTS
5.5
SF
Saddiq Bey
OR
121.0
DR
120.9
PTS
17.7
VS
Brice Sensabaugh
OR
107.4
DR
125.3
PTS
14.8
PF
Zion Williamson
OR
125.9
DR
118.7
PTS
21.0
VS
Kyle Filipowski
OR
114.2
DR
119.0
PTS
11.4
C
Yves Missi
OR
120.4
DR
117.6
PTS
5.7
VS
Oscar Tshiebwe
OR
134.2
DR
123.9
PTS
6.4
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
New Orleans Pelicans are projected to win (87.3% probability).
Expected starting five — New Orleans Pelicans: Jeremiah Fears, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Zion Williamson, Yves Missi. Utah Jazz: Cody Williams, John Konchar, Brice Sensabaugh, Kyle Filipowski, Oscar Tshiebwe.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 239.62 points, suggesting a relatively high-scoring affair and above-average tempo. The expected spread is 7.2 points (home minus away), indicating a clear home-side edge of about seven points on the board.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
239.6
Most likely outcome: 239 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (New Orleans Pelicans - Utah Jazz)
7.2
Most likely outcome: 7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show falling momentum in Elo: New Orleans has dropped more sharply while Utah has declined more modestly.
New Orleans Pelicans
1400.0
-36.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Orlando Magic | 1400.0 | -7.8 |
| 2026-04-03 | Sacramento Kings | 1407.8 | -11.6 |
| 2026-04-02 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1419.4 | -7.7 |
| 2026-03-29 | Houston Rockets | 1427.1 | -9.3 |
| 2026-03-27 | Toronto Raptors | 1436.4 | — |
Utah Jazz
1299.9
-11.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1299.9 | -1.6 |
| 2026-04-03 | Houston Rockets | 1301.5 | -3.6 |
| 2026-04-01 | Denver Nuggets | 1305.1 | -3.3 |
| 2026-03-30 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1308.4 | -3.3 |
| 2026-03-28 | Phoenix Suns | 1311.7 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
New Orleans Pelicans
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Magic | 108 | 112 | -4 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 113 | 117 | -4 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 106 | 118 | -12 | |
| Houston Rockets | 102 | 134 | -32 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 106 | 119 | -13 |
Utah Jazz
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 111 | 146 | -35 | |
| Houston Rockets | 106 | 140 | -34 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 117 | 130 | -13 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 113 | 122 | -9 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 109 | 134 | -25 |
Game Analysis
Both clubs enter on three-game losing streaks. New Orleans has three straight losses by margins of 4, 4, and 12 points (108-112, 113-117, 106-118), suggesting competitive games but a recent slide. Utah’s losses are heavier (111-146, 106-140, 117-130), pointing to defensive issues and blowouts in recent outings.
Looking at the expected starters, New Orleans’ five average offensive rating is 114.26, defensive rating 118.74, and average points made 13.34. Utah’s starters average offensive rating 113.86, defensive rating 122.24, and average points made 9.32. The Pelicans’ group combines a slight edge offensively with a clearer edge defensively and more scoring from their starters, which should matter given Utah’s recent defensive lapses. Power ratings also show New Orleans has fallen more (-36.4) than Utah (-11.8), so momentum favors no one.
Final Prediction
New Orleans’ starting five offers more balanced scoring and a better combined defensive rating, which is why they’re favored. Key factor to watch: how Zion Williamson’s offense and Saddiq Bey’s scoring match up against Utah’s interior presence around Oscar Tshiebwe (offensive rating 134.2) and whether Utah can stop the Pelicans’ secondary scorers.
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