NBA 2025-2026: Phoenix Suns vs Houston Rockets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Phoenix Suns

Home Team
48.4%
VS

Houston Rockets

Away Team
51.6%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Phoenix Suns
PTS 9.3 REB 4.8 AST 2.8 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 26.5 REB 4.1 AST 5.9 3PM 2.3
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.6 REB 4.4 AST 4.0 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.6 REB 3.9 AST 2.0 3PM 2.3
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.6 REB 7.7 AST 1.5 3PM 0.1
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Houston Rockets
PTS 13.5 REB 3.1 AST 3.8 3PM 2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.5 REB 6.5 AST 5.2 3PM 0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.9 REB 5.9 AST 1.6 3PM 2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 23.5 REB 5.7 AST 5.2 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 19.9 REB 8.2 AST 5.4 3PM 0.7
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jordan Goodwin
OR
115.4
DR
112.0
PTS
8.7
VS
Reed Sheppard
OR
117.6
DR
112.4
PTS
13.6
SG
Devin Booker
OR
119.1
DR
117.2
PTS
25.8
VS
Amen Thompson
OR
124.9
DR
114.1
PTS
17.9
SF
Jalen Green
OR
102.2
DR
114.1
PTS
18.4
VS
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
121.9
DR
114.6
PTS
15.7
PF
Dillon Brooks
OR
108.9
DR
116.6
PTS
20.4
VS
Kevin Durant
OR
125.2
DR
115.0
PTS
25.9
C
Mark Williams
OR
131.8
DR
110.4
PTS
11.6
VS
Alperen Şengün
OR
117.6
DR
111.8
PTS
20.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model leans Houston Rockets to win with a 51.6% probability. Expected starting fives — Phoenix Suns: Jordan Goodwin, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Mark Williams; Houston Rockets: Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The predicted combined total is 231.41 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and a decent offensive pace from both teams. The spread (Home - Away = -2.18) favors the away team by about 2.18 points, giving a small edge to whoever is listed as the visitor.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 231.4 Most likely outcome: 231 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Phoenix Suns - Houston Rockets) -2.2 Most likely outcome: -3 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Phoenix’s recent power rating trend is down slightly (-5.3 over five games) while Houston’s is strongly rising (+27.5 over five games).

Phoenix Suns

1515.8 -5.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-05 Chicago Bulls 1515.8 +6.5
2026-04-02 Charlotte Hornets 1509.3 -8.6
2026-03-31 Orlando Magic 1517.9 -10.1
2026-03-30 Memphis Grizzlies 1528.0 +6.9
2026-03-28 Utah Jazz 1521.1 —

Houston Rockets

1585.1 +27.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-05 Golden State Warriors 1585.1 +6.7
2026-04-03 Utah Jazz 1578.4 +3.7
2026-04-01 Milwaukee Bucks 1574.7 +4.8
2026-03-31 New York Knicks 1569.9 +12.3
2026-03-29 New Orleans Pelicans 1557.6 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Phoenix Suns

3-2 in last 5
W L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Chicago Bulls 120 110 +10
Charlotte Hornets 107 127 -20
Orlando Magic 111 115 -4
Memphis Grizzlies 131 105 +26
Utah Jazz 134 109 +25

Houston Rockets

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Golden State Warriors 117 116 +1
Utah Jazz 140 106 +34
Milwaukee Bucks 119 113 +6
New York Knicks 111 94 +17
New Orleans Pelicans 134 102 +32

Game Analysis

Phoenix is 1-2 in their last three — a bounce against Chicago (120-110) bookended by losses to Charlotte (107-127) and Orlando (111-115). Houston is red-hot at 3-0, beating Golden State (117-116), Utah (140-106) and Milwaukee (119-113). Houston’s streak shows momentum and scoring consistency; Phoenix has been streaky on both ends lately. Looking at the projected starters, Phoenix’s five average an offensive rating of 115.48, defensive rating of 114.06, and average points made per starter of 16.98. Houston’s projected five average an offensive rating of 121.44, defensive rating of 113.58, and average points made per starter of 18.74. Those splits favor Houston’s offense while the defenses are comparable, which helps explain the narrow edge for the Rockets.

Final Prediction

Houston’s upward trend, stronger offensive numbers from their starters, and current 3-0 form give them the edge in a close game. Watch whether Phoenix can slow Houston’s scoring starters — that defensive response will likely decide the outcome.

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