NBA 2025-2026: Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Toronto Raptors
Home Team
74.4%
VS
Miami Heat
Away Team
25.6%
Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.
Set it upPlayer Projections
AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Toronto Raptors
Immanuel Quickley
PTS
15.7
REB
3.7
AST
5.3
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Brandon Ingram
PTS
20.8
REB
5.2
AST
4.0
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
RJ Barrett
PTS
21.3
REB
5.8
AST
4.1
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Scottie Barnes
PTS
18.6
REB
7.2
AST
7.0
3PM
0.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jakob Poeltl
PTS
11.9
REB
7.4
AST
2.0
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Miami Heat
Davion Mitchell
PTS
9.8
REB
3.1
AST
6.5
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Norman Powell
PTS
18.8
REB
3.6
AST
2.9
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Tyler Herro
PTS
21.6
REB
4.2
AST
4.5
3PM
2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Andrew Wiggins
PTS
14.2
REB
4.8
AST
2.7
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Bam Adebayo
PTS
21.5
REB
10.4
AST
3.8
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Immanuel Quickley
OR
120.6
DR
115.1
PTS
16.9
VS
Davion Mitchell
OR
121.3
DR
116.4
PTS
9.2
SG
Brandon Ingram
OR
109.2
DR
115.0
PTS
21.3
VS
Norman Powell
OR
115.0
DR
115.9
PTS
22.1
SF
RJ Barrett
OR
115.1
DR
115.0
PTS
19.1
VS
Tyler Herro
OR
117.7
DR
119.5
PTS
21.4
PF
Scottie Barnes
OR
114.2
DR
110.1
PTS
18.1
VS
Andrew Wiggins
OR
118.3
DR
114.2
PTS
15.6
C
Jakob Poeltl
OR
129.3
DR
110.6
PTS
10.8
VS
Bam Adebayo
OR
114.4
DR
111.5
PTS
20.2
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Toronto Raptors are the pick to win (64.4% probability). Expected starting fives — Toronto: Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl; Miami: Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 244.44 points, signaling a game that should play at a high pace with both offenses able to score. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 3.36, giving the home team — in our projection the Toronto Raptors — a roughly 3.4-point edge.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
244.4
Most likely outcome: 244 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Toronto Raptors - Miami Heat)
3.4
Most likely outcome: 3 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Both teams' power ratings have dipped recently, with Toronto falling more steeply (-21.1 over five games) while Miami has dropped modestly (-8.8).
Toronto Raptors
1516.6
-21.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Boston Celtics | 1516.6 | -6.3 |
| 2026-04-03 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1522.9 | +7.0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sacramento Kings | 1515.9 | -14.7 |
| 2026-03-31 | Detroit Pistons | 1530.6 | -7.1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Orlando Magic | 1537.7 | — |
Miami Heat
1510.5
-8.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Washington Wizards | 1510.5 | +4.2 |
| 2026-04-01 | Boston Celtics | 1506.3 | -7.8 |
| 2026-03-30 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1514.1 | +10.8 |
| 2026-03-29 | Indiana Pacers | 1503.3 | -16.0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1519.3 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Toronto Raptors
2-3 in last 5
L
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | 101 | 115 | -14 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 128 | 96 | +32 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 115 | 123 | -8 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 116 | 127 | -11 | |
| Orlando Magic | 139 | 87 | +52 |
Miami Heat
2-3 in last 5
W
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Wizards | 152 | 136 | +16 | |
| Boston Celtics | 129 | 147 | -18 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 119 | 109 | +10 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 118 | 135 | -17 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 128 | 149 | -21 |
Game Analysis
Toronto is 1-2 in its last three, coming off a big 128-96 win over Memphis but losses to Boston (101-115) and Sacramento (115-123) show some inconsistency on both ends. Miami is 2-1 over three, with an explosive 152-136 win over Washington and a solid 119-109 victory over Philadelphia, offset by a 129-147 loss to Boston — they’ve shown they can light it up offensively.
Looking at the starters, Toronto’s five average an offensive rating of 117.7, defensive rating of 113.2, and 17.2 points made per starter; Miami’s projected five average an offensive rating of 117.3, defensive rating of 115.5, and 17.7 points made per starter. That edge defensively for Toronto—combined with Jakob Poeltl’s lofty 129.3 offensive rating and Quickley’s 120.6—helps explain the lean toward the Raptors, while Miami’s scoring depth (Powell 22.1, Herro 21.4, Adebayo 20.2) keeps this close.
Final Prediction
Toronto’s slight advantages in team defense and interior presence give them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: the Poeltl–Adebayo matchup and how each team defends the paint and transition opportunities.
Get Daily NBA Predictions
Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.
Join Our Telegram Channel