NBA 2025-2026: Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Detroit Pistons
Home Team
94.6%
VS
Milwaukee Bucks
Away Team
5.4%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham
PTS
19.6
REB
3.9
AST
7.0
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ausar Thompson
PTS
10.2
REB
5.8
AST
4.3
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Duncan Robinson
PTS
11.9
REB
2.8
AST
1.7
3PM
3.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Tobias Harris
PTS
12.7
REB
4.0
AST
2.5
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jalen Duren
PTS
20.0
REB
10.3
AST
2.5
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Milwaukee Bucks
Ryan Rollins
PTS
18.6
REB
4.2
AST
6.0
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Gary Trent Jr.
PTS
9.3
REB
2.4
AST
2.0
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Pete Nance
PTS
8.2
REB
4.0
AST
2.4
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jericho Sims
PTS
6.4
REB
6.0
AST
2.3
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ousmane Dieng
PTS
15.3
REB
5.3
AST
4.1
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Cade Cunningham
OR
119.3
DR
110.4
PTS
24.5
VS
Ryan Rollins
OR
112.5
DR
118.0
PTS
17.2
SG
Ausar Thompson
OR
113.1
DR
104.8
PTS
9.9
VS
Gary Trent Jr.
OR
99.7
DR
123.4
PTS
8.2
SF
Duncan Robinson
OR
126.2
DR
115.1
PTS
12.0
VS
Pete Nance
OR
102.4
DR
122.8
PTS
5.5
PF
Tobias Harris
OR
120.1
DR
111.2
PTS
13.2
VS
Jericho Sims
OR
123.8
DR
122.4
PTS
4.6
C
Jalen Duren
OR
132.2
DR
108.0
PTS
19.5
VS
Ousmane Dieng
OR
95.5
DR
121.4
PTS
10.8
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Detroit Pistons are the pick to win (96.5% probability). Expected starting five — Detroit: Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren. Milwaukee: Ryan Rollins, Gary Trent Jr., Pete Nance, Jericho Sims, Ousmane Dieng.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 220.65, pointing to a fairly high-scoring game and a decent pace from both teams. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 16.17, which would give a large edge to whatever team is listed as the home side.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
220.7
Most likely outcome: 220 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Detroit Pistons - Milwaukee Bucks)
16.2
Most likely outcome: 17 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Detroit’s power rating trend is rising while Milwaukee’s is falling over the last five games.
Detroit Pistons
1650.0
+8.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Orlando Magic | 1650.0 | -14.4 |
| 2026-04-04 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1664.4 | +8.0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1656.4 | +7.6 |
| 2026-03-31 | Toronto Raptors | 1648.8 | +7.0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1641.8 | — |
Milwaukee Bucks
1388.6
-13.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Brooklyn Nets | 1388.6 | -11.9 |
| 2026-04-05 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1400.5 | +8.5 |
| 2026-04-03 | Boston Celtics | 1392.0 | -5.0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Houston Rockets | 1397.0 | -4.8 |
| 2026-03-31 | Dallas Mavericks | 1401.8 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Detroit Pistons
3-2 in last 5
L
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Magic | 107 | 123 | -16 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 116 | 93 | +23 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 113 | 108 | +5 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 127 | 116 | +11 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 110 | 114 | -4 |
Milwaukee Bucks
2-3 in last 5
L
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Nets | 90 | 96 | -6 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 131 | 115 | +16 | |
| Boston Celtics | 101 | 133 | -32 | |
| Houston Rockets | 113 | 119 | -6 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 123 | 99 | +24 |
Game Analysis
Detroit is 2-1 in its last three, splitting the stretch with a dominant 116-93 win over Philadelphia and a solid 113-108 victory over Minnesota, sandwiched around a 107-123 loss at Orlando. That uptick aligns with a positive recent power-rating move (+8.2 over five games). Milwaukee is 1-2 in its last three, beating Memphis 131-115 but losing to Boston 101-133 and narrowly to Brooklyn 90-96, and its power rating has declined (-13.2).
Looking at the projected starters, Detroit’s five average an offensive rating of 122.18, a defensive rating of 109.90, and about 15.82 points made per starter — numbers that suggest both efficient scoring and solid defense from the core group. Milwaukee’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 106.78, a defensive rating of 121.60, and about 9.26 points made per starter, indicating offensive struggles and defensive gaps relative to Detroit’s unit.
Final Prediction
Detroit’s starters are stronger on both ends by the provided ratings and their recent power-rating momentum gives them the clear edge, which explains the heavy probability. Key factor to watch: Jalen Duren’s impact inside (OFFENSIVE RATING 132.2, AVG_POINTS_MADE 19.5) and how Milwaukee plans to contain him.
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