NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Clippers vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Los Angeles Clippers
Home Team
37.3%
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder
Away Team
62.7%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Los Angeles Clippers
Darius Garland
PTS
19.9
REB
2.9
AST
5.4
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Kris Dunn
PTS
7.0
REB
3.5
AST
3.3
3PM
0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Derrick Jones Jr.
PTS
9.0
REB
3.9
AST
1.3
3PM
0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Kawhi Leonard
PTS
25.8
REB
6.3
AST
3.4
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Brook Lopez
PTS
9.8
REB
5.1
AST
1.3
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
PTS
28.7
REB
4.4
AST
5.8
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jalen Williams
PTS
17.1
REB
4.2
AST
4.8
3PM
0.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Luguentz Dort
PTS
8.1
REB
3.2
AST
1.4
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Chet Holmgren
PTS
15.7
REB
7.6
AST
1.4
3PM
1.1
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Isaiah Hartenstein
PTS
7.3
REB
8.4
AST
2.6
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Darius Garland
OR
118.6
DR
118.6
PTS
20.4
VS
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
136.0
DR
107.9
PTS
31.3
SG
Kris Dunn
OR
117.3
DR
115.6
PTS
7.4
VS
Jalen Williams
OR
117.3
DR
110.3
PTS
17.0
SF
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
122.4
DR
117.7
PTS
10.3
VS
Luguentz Dort
OR
105.0
DR
110.7
PTS
8.5
PF
Kawhi Leonard
OR
125.5
DR
112.5
PTS
28.1
VS
Chet Holmgren
OR
124.1
DR
103.2
PTS
16.9
C
Brook Lopez
OR
100.5
DR
114.9
PTS
8.2
VS
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
123.0
DR
102.4
PTS
9.2
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Oklahoma City Thunder are the pick to win (62.7% probability).
Expected starting five — Los Angeles Clippers: Darius Garland, Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, Brook Lopez. Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 228.71 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and an up-tempo outlook. The expected spread is -5.14 (Home − Away), which implies the away side holds about a 5.14-point edge — in this matchup that favors the Thunder.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
228.7
Most likely outcome: 228 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Clippers - Oklahoma City Thunder)
-5.1
Most likely outcome: -6 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
The Clippers’ power metric has dipped slightly over five games while the Thunder’s rating has climbed markedly.
Los Angeles Clippers
1548.7
-8.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Dallas Mavericks | 1548.7 | +4.7 |
| 2026-04-05 | Sacramento Kings | 1544.0 | +6.5 |
| 2026-04-02 | San Antonio Spurs | 1537.5 | -6.4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1543.9 | -12.9 |
| 2026-03-29 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1556.8 | — |
Oklahoma City Thunder
1730.3
+28.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1730.3 | +9.4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Utah Jazz | 1720.9 | +1.6 |
| 2026-04-02 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1719.3 | +9.4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Detroit Pistons | 1709.9 | +8.1 |
| 2026-03-29 | New York Knicks | 1701.8 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Los Angeles Clippers
3-2 in last 5
W
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | 116 | 103 | +13 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 138 | 109 | +29 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 99 | 118 | -19 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 104 | 114 | -10 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 127 | 113 | +14 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
5-0 in last 5
W
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 123 | 87 | +36 | |
| Utah Jazz | 146 | 111 | +35 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 139 | 96 | +43 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 114 | 110 | +4 | |
| New York Knicks | 111 | 100 | +11 |
Game Analysis
Recent form paints contrasting pictures: the Clippers are 2-1 over the last three with wins 116-103 and 138-109 and a 99-118 loss, showing offensive upside but a rough defensive outing in the loss. The Thunder are rolling — three straight blowout wins (123-87, 146-111, 139-96) and strong two-way performances across the board, signaling momentum and confidence on both ends.
Looking at the expected starters, the Clippers’ five average offensive rating is 116.86, defensive rating 115.86, and average points made 14.88. The Thunder’s starting five average offensive rating is 121.08, defensive rating 106.90, and average points made 16.58. Those gaps — especially on defense (106.90 vs. 115.86) and Shai’s scoring presence — point to a Thunder advantage in both generating and limiting scoring.
Final Prediction
The Thunder’s sustained upward trend, superior two-way numbers among expected starters, and recent dominant wins give them the edge. Watch Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring and how Chet Holmgren/Isaiah Hartenstein control the paint; those matchups will likely decide the game.
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