NBA 2025-2026: Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Brooklyn Nets
Home Team
20.5%
VS
Indiana Pacers
Away Team
79.5%
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HOME Brooklyn Nets
Malachi Smith
PTS
9.8
REB
3.4
AST
3.4
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Ben Saraf
PTS
12.2
REB
4.0
AST
5.0
3PM
1.1
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Drake Powell
PTS
10.8
REB
3.3
AST
2.3
3PM
1.7
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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E.J. Liddell
PTS
9.1
REB
4.4
AST
1.7
3PM
1.3
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Trevon Scott
PTS
10.4
REB
5.6
AST
3.0
3PM
1.2
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AWAY Indiana Pacers
Quenton Jackson
PTS
12.7
REB
3.5
AST
4.0
3PM
1.0
Distribution (PDF)
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Ethan Thompson
PTS
9.5
REB
3.2
AST
1.8
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jarace Walker
PTS
15.1
REB
5.7
AST
3.8
3PM
1.9
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Kobe Brown
PTS
10.7
REB
5.5
AST
2.3
3PM
1.3
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Jay Huff
PTS
11.5
REB
5.1
AST
1.6
3PM
1.6
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Malachi Smith
OR
108.4
DR
114.2
PTS
7.2
VS
Quenton Jackson
OR
108.2
DR
122.0
PTS
8.7
SG
Ben Saraf
OR
85.8
DR
120.2
PTS
6.9
VS
Ethan Thompson
OR
85.0
DR
118.2
PTS
6.0
SF
Drake Powell
OR
101.2
DR
120.6
PTS
6.5
VS
Jarace Walker
OR
102.9
DR
118.8
PTS
11.5
PF
E.J. Liddell
OR
121.9
DR
123.3
PTS
4.0
VS
Kobe Brown
OR
116.6
DR
125.6
PTS
9.0
C
Trevon Scott
OR
0.0
DR
0.0
PTS
0.0
VS
Jay Huff
OR
110.6
DR
116.4
PTS
9.5
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Indiana Pacers are the pick to win (79.5% probability).
Expected starting fives — Brooklyn Nets: Malachi Smith, Ben Saraf, Drake Powell, E.J. Liddell, Trevon Scott. Indiana Pacers: Quenton Jackson, Ethan Thompson, Jarace Walker, Kobe Brown, Jay Huff.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The game’s expected total is 222.4 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring affair and above-average pace for both teams. The projected spread is Home -6.25, giving Indiana (the home team) roughly a 6.25-point edge on their floor.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
222.4
Most likely outcome: 222 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Brooklyn Nets - Indiana Pacers)
-6.2
Most likely outcome: -7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Brooklyn’s power rating has risen notably over the last five games (+12.0), while Indiana’s has been relatively stable with a modest gain (+2.8).
Brooklyn Nets
1323.9
+12.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1323.9 | +11.9 |
| 2026-04-05 | Washington Wizards | 1312.0 | +8.9 |
| 2026-04-03 | Atlanta Hawks | 1303.1 | -4.4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Charlotte Hornets | 1307.5 | -4.4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sacramento Kings | 1311.9 | — |
Indiana Pacers
1315.5
+2.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1315.5 | -4.9 |
| 2026-04-05 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1320.4 | -2.6 |
| 2026-04-03 | Charlotte Hornets | 1323.0 | -3.5 |
| 2026-04-01 | Chicago Bulls | 1326.5 | +13.8 |
| 2026-03-29 | Miami Heat | 1312.7 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Brooklyn Nets
3-2 in last 5
W
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks | 96 | 90 | +6 | |
| Washington Wizards | 121 | 115 | +6 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 107 | 141 | -34 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 86 | 117 | -31 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 116 | 99 | +17 |
Indiana Pacers
2-3 in last 5
L
L
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 104 | 124 | -20 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 108 | 117 | -9 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 108 | 129 | -21 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 145 | 126 | +19 | |
| Miami Heat | 135 | 118 | +17 |
Game Analysis
Brooklyn is 2-1 in its last three with wins over Milwaukee (96-90) and Washington (121-115) but suffered a heavy loss to Atlanta (107-141). That shows they can compete offensively but have had at least one game with major defensive breakdowns. Indiana is on a three-game skid, losing to Minnesota (104-124), Cleveland (108-117) and Charlotte (108-129), a stretch where they’ve conceded big totals despite scoring in the 100s.
Looking at the starters, Brooklyn’s five average to an offensive rating of 83.5, defensive rating of 95.7 and combined average points made of 4.9 — figures skewed by Trevon Scott’s 0.0 values. Indiana’s projected five average an offensive rating of 104.7, defensive rating of 120.2 and combined average points made of 8.9, showing more scoring production from their starters. Those differences in offensive output and scoring per starter favor the Pacers in getting consistent baskets.
Final Prediction
Indiana’s edge comes from steadier scoring contributions from its starting five and home-court advantage reflected in the spread. Key factor to watch: whether Brooklyn can stop the bleeding on defense after allowing 141 and other high totals recently; if not, Indiana should cover comfortably.
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