NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs Boston Celtics: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
New York Knicks
Home Team
68.1%
VS
Boston Celtics
Away Team
31.9%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson
PTS
24.5
REB
3.6
AST
7.3
3PM
2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Josh Hart
PTS
10.8
REB
6.3
AST
5.2
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Mikal Bridges
PTS
13.9
REB
3.7
AST
3.2
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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OG Anunoby
PTS
16.8
REB
5.2
AST
2.4
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Karl-Anthony Towns
PTS
19.6
REB
10.9
AST
4.1
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Boston Celtics
Baylor Scheierman
PTS
5.9
REB
3.3
AST
2.1
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Derrick White
PTS
13.8
REB
3.8
AST
4.4
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jayson Tatum
PTS
22.9
REB
8.7
AST
5.8
3PM
3.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Sam Hauser
PTS
9.5
REB
3.8
AST
1.6
3PM
2.4
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Neemias Queta
PTS
11.0
REB
7.4
AST
1.5
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jalen Brunson
OR
120.9
DR
116.7
PTS
26.0
VS
Baylor Scheierman
OR
117.5
DR
113.3
PTS
5.0
SG
Josh Hart
OR
120.9
DR
111.1
PTS
11.9
VS
Derrick White
OR
118.9
DR
112.7
PTS
16.7
SF
Mikal Bridges
OR
124.9
DR
113.8
PTS
14.7
VS
Jayson Tatum
OR
114.9
DR
106.9
PTS
21.6
PF
OG Anunoby
OR
118.1
DR
112.7
PTS
17.0
VS
Sam Hauser
OR
117.3
DR
115.5
PTS
9.1
C
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
122.2
DR
110.1
PTS
20.1
VS
Neemias Queta
OR
137.5
DR
108.3
PTS
10.3
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The model picks the New York Knicks to win with a 68.1% probability.
Expected starting fives — New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns; Boston Celtics: Baylor Scheierman, Derrick White, Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 220.16 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring affair and a solid offensive pace from both clubs. The expected spread is +4.27 (Home - Away), signaling a 4.27-point edge to the home team; despite that home-side edge, the projection still favors the Knicks.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
220.2
Most likely outcome: 220 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Boston Celtics)
4.3
Most likely outcome: 4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams’ ratings are rising, with Boston’s trend climbing faster than New York’s.
New York Knicks
1609.4
+7.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Atlanta Hawks | 1609.4 | +10.5 |
| 2026-04-03 | Chicago Bulls | 1598.9 | +5.0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1593.9 | +4.5 |
| 2026-03-31 | Houston Rockets | 1589.4 | -12.3 |
| 2026-03-29 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1601.7 | — |
Boston Celtics
1666.4
+27.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Charlotte Hornets | 1666.4 | +8.4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Toronto Raptors | 1658.0 | +6.3 |
| 2026-04-03 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1651.7 | +5.0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Miami Heat | 1646.7 | +7.8 |
| 2026-03-30 | Atlanta Hawks | 1638.9 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
New York Knicks
3-2 in last 5
W
W
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 108 | 105 | +3 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 136 | 96 | +40 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 130 | 119 | +11 | |
| Houston Rockets | 94 | 111 | -17 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 100 | 111 | -11 |
Boston Celtics
4-1 in last 5
W
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Hornets | 113 | 102 | +11 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 115 | 101 | +14 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 133 | 101 | +32 | |
| Miami Heat | 147 | 129 | +18 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 102 | 112 | -10 |
Game Analysis
Both teams enter on three-game win streaks. New York’s recent results: wins of 108-105, 136-96, and 130-119 — two dominant offensive outings and one close finish. Boston’s recent wins are 113-102, 115-101, and 133-101 — consistently large margins and high scoring, particularly in the most recent 133-101 game.
Looking at the five expected starters: New York’s group averages about a 121.4 offensive rating, a 112.9 defensive rating, and an average of 17.9 points made per starter. Boston’s projected five average roughly a 121.2 offensive rating, a 111.3 defensive rating, and 12.5 points made per starter. Offensively the groups are nearly even by rating, but New York’s starters bring more scoring volume, while Boston posts a slightly better team defensive number among the projected five.
Final Prediction
The Knicks’ edge comes from recent high-output scoring and a starting five that produces more points per player, which the model favors even against Boston’s rising form. Key factor to watch: how New York’s primary scorers (Brunson and Towns) match up with Jayson Tatum and whether the Knicks can sustain that scoring gap.
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