NBA 2025-2026: Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Toronto Raptors
Home Team
83.2%
VS
Miami Heat
Away Team
16.8%
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HOME Toronto Raptors
Immanuel Quickley
PTS
12.1
REB
3.8
AST
5.2
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Brandon Ingram
PTS
20.4
REB
5.1
AST
3.9
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
RJ Barrett
PTS
20.0
REB
5.6
AST
3.7
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Scottie Barnes
PTS
17.7
REB
7.0
AST
6.2
3PM
0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jakob Poeltl
PTS
11.5
REB
7.0
AST
2.0
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Miami Heat
Davion Mitchell
PTS
10.9
REB
3.1
AST
6.7
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Norman Powell
PTS
20.8
REB
3.7
AST
2.9
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Tyler Herro
PTS
21.4
REB
4.5
AST
5.0
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Andrew Wiggins
PTS
16.0
REB
5.2
AST
3.2
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Bam Adebayo
PTS
21.1
REB
10.0
AST
4.0
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Immanuel Quickley
OR
121.1
DR
114.6
PTS
16.7
VS
Davion Mitchell
OR
120.9
DR
116.6
PTS
9.2
SG
Brandon Ingram
OR
109.3
DR
114.7
PTS
21.3
VS
Norman Powell
OR
114.6
DR
116.0
PTS
21.9
SF
RJ Barrett
OR
114.8
DR
114.7
PTS
19.1
VS
Tyler Herro
OR
118.5
DR
119.6
PTS
21.2
PF
Scottie Barnes
OR
114.6
DR
109.9
PTS
18.2
VS
Andrew Wiggins
OR
118.4
DR
114.4
PTS
15.8
C
Jakob Poeltl
OR
129.2
DR
110.1
PTS
11.0
VS
Bam Adebayo
OR
113.8
DR
111.6
PTS
20.0
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Toronto Raptors to win (83.2% probability).
Expected starting five — Toronto Raptors: Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl. Miami Heat: Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined score is 239.47, pointing toward a fast, high-scoring game with both teams likely to push the pace and trade baskets. The expected spread is 6.2 points in favor of the home team, giving the home side a clear margin on the scoreboard, though the projection still favors Toronto overall.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
239.5
Most likely outcome: 239 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Toronto Raptors - Miami Heat)
6.2
Most likely outcome: 6 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show slight downward momentum over the last five games: Toronto down modestly and Miami down a bit more.
Toronto Raptors
1527.9
-2.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Miami Heat | 1527.9 | +11.3 |
| 2026-04-05 | Boston Celtics | 1516.6 | -6.3 |
| 2026-04-03 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1522.9 | +7.0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sacramento Kings | 1515.9 | -14.7 |
| 2026-03-31 | Detroit Pistons | 1530.6 | — |
Miami Heat
1499.2
-4.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Toronto Raptors | 1499.2 | -11.3 |
| 2026-04-04 | Washington Wizards | 1510.5 | +4.2 |
| 2026-04-01 | Boston Celtics | 1506.3 | -7.8 |
| 2026-03-30 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1514.1 | +10.8 |
| 2026-03-29 | Indiana Pacers | 1503.3 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Toronto Raptors
2-3 in last 5
W
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | 121 | 95 | +26 | |
| Boston Celtics | 101 | 115 | -14 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 128 | 96 | +32 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 115 | 123 | -8 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 116 | 127 | -11 |
Miami Heat
2-3 in last 5
L
W
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | 95 | 121 | -26 | |
| Washington Wizards | 152 | 136 | +16 | |
| Boston Celtics | 129 | 147 | -18 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 119 | 109 | +10 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 118 | 135 | -17 |
Game Analysis
Toronto enters with two strong wins (128-96 vs Memphis and 121-95 vs Miami) and a loss to Boston (101-115), showing an ability to dominate when their defense clicks — notably holding Miami to 95 in their recent meeting. Miami is coming off a wild 152-136 win over Washington but has losses to Toronto and Boston, suggesting offensive firepower that can be inconsistent against tougher defenses.
Looking at the projected starters, Toronto’s average offensive rating is about 117.8 and defensive rating about 112.8, with an average points-made per starter around 17.3. Miami’s starters average roughly 117.2 on offense and 115.6 on defense, with about 17.6 points per starter. That defensive edge for Toronto (112.8 vs 115.6) and Jakob Poeltl’s high offensive rating (129.2) should be influential.
Final Prediction
Toronto’s combination of recent form, a stronger team defensive profile, and the convincing 121-95 win over Miami gives them the edge. Key factor to watch: can Toronto’s defense contain Miami’s scoring bursts, especially after Miami’s 152-point outburst?
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