NBA 2025-2026: Washington Wizards vs Chicago Bulls: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Washington Wizards
Home Team
27.8%
VS
Chicago Bulls
Away Team
72.2%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Washington Wizards
Bub Carrington
PTS
13.9
REB
3.8
AST
6.2
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Leaky Black
PTS
8.9
REB
4.8
AST
1.9
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Will Riley
PTS
17.1
REB
4.4
AST
3.5
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Anthony Gill
PTS
9.7
REB
4.8
AST
2.1
3PM
0.9
Distribution (PDF)
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Julian Reese
PTS
14.3
REB
12.0
AST
2.9
3PM
0.1
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Chicago Bulls
Tre Jones
PTS
17.1
REB
3.9
AST
6.8
3PM
1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Collin Sexton
PTS
19.2
REB
4.5
AST
3.9
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Leonard Miller
PTS
14.3
REB
6.7
AST
1.8
3PM
1.8
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Patrick Williams
PTS
10.9
REB
4.7
AST
2.4
3PM
2.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Guerschon Yabusele
PTS
13.7
REB
6.6
AST
1.9
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Bub Carrington
OR
106.4
DR
125.3
PTS
10.3
VS
Tre Jones
OR
128.9
DR
118.3
PTS
13.8
SG
Leaky Black
OR
105.2
DR
125.8
PTS
7.0
VS
Collin Sexton
OR
113.6
DR
118.1
PTS
17.2
SF
Will Riley
OR
107.1
DR
125.0
PTS
10.1
VS
Leonard Miller
OR
115.6
DR
118.6
PTS
10.8
PF
Anthony Gill
OR
100.9
DR
127.0
PTS
5.4
VS
Patrick Williams
OR
92.4
DR
120.3
PTS
6.8
C
Julian Reese
OR
105.9
DR
120.6
PTS
11.4
VS
Guerschon Yabusele
OR
112.7
DR
118.3
PTS
10.2
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Chicago Bulls are the pick to win (72.2% probability).
Expected starting fives — Washington Wizards: Bub Carrington, Leaky Black, Will Riley, Anthony Gill, Julian Reese. Chicago Bulls: Tre Jones, Collin Sexton, Leonard Miller, Patrick Williams, Guerschon Yabusele.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 237.03 points, signaling a game tilted toward a faster pace and plenty of scoring. The expected spread (Home - Away = -5.42) hands a roughly 5.4-point advantage to the away team, which in this slate favors Chicago.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
237.0
Most likely outcome: 237 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Washington Wizards - Chicago Bulls)
-5.4
Most likely outcome: -6 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams’ ELO trends are falling over the last five games, with Washington down 28.7 and Chicago down 14.9.
Washington Wizards
1270.5
-28.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Chicago Bulls | 1270.5 | -10.3 |
| 2026-04-05 | Brooklyn Nets | 1280.8 | -8.9 |
| 2026-04-04 | Miami Heat | 1289.7 | -4.2 |
| 2026-04-01 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1293.9 | -5.3 |
| 2026-03-30 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1299.2 | — |
Chicago Bulls
1371.8
-14.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Washington Wizards | 1371.8 | +10.4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Phoenix Suns | 1361.4 | -6.6 |
| 2026-04-03 | New York Knicks | 1368.0 | -5.0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Indiana Pacers | 1373.0 | -13.7 |
| 2026-03-30 | San Antonio Spurs | 1386.7 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Washington Wizards
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bulls | 98 | 129 | -31 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 115 | 121 | -6 | |
| Miami Heat | 136 | 152 | -16 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 131 | 153 | -22 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 101 | 120 | -19 |
Chicago Bulls
1-4 in last 5
W
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Wizards | 129 | 98 | +31 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 110 | 120 | -10 | |
| New York Knicks | 96 | 136 | -40 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 126 | 145 | -19 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 114 | 129 | -15 |
Game Analysis
Washington has dropped three straight: a 98-129 loss to Chicago, 115-121 to Brooklyn, and 136-152 to Miami. Those results show the Wizards struggling to stop opponents—allowing 129, 121 and 152 points—and failing to keep games close. Chicago is 1-2 over its last three, with a dominant 129-98 win over Washington but losses to Phoenix (110-120) and New York (96-136), so inconsistency is present on both ends for the Bulls.
Looking at the projected starters, Washington’s five average offensive rating is 105.1, defensive rating 124.7, and average points made 8.84 — numbers that point to offensive limitations and defensive vulnerabilities. Chicago’s projected starting five averages an offensive rating of 112.6, defensive rating of 118.7, and 11.76 points made — a clear edge on both ends. Tre Jones (128.9 ORtg) and Collin Sexton’s scoring (17.2 PPG) give Chicago a higher ceiling if they sustain efficiency.
Final Prediction
Chicago’s superior offensive and defensive profile among the expected starters and the recent blowout win over Washington give them the edge. Watch whether Washington can slow Tre Jones and Collin Sexton; that matchup will likely decide how tight this one becomes.
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