NBA 2025-2026: Charlotte Hornets vs Detroit Pistons: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Charlotte Hornets
Home Team
49.3%
VS
Detroit Pistons
Away Team
50.7%
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HOME Charlotte Hornets
LaMelo Ball
PTS
21.3
REB
4.6
AST
7.7
3PM
3.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Brandon Miller
PTS
19.2
REB
4.4
AST
3.6
3PM
2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Kon Knueppel
PTS
17.4
REB
4.8
AST
3.6
3PM
2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Miles Bridges
PTS
17.4
REB
5.7
AST
3.5
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Moussa Diabaté
PTS
7.3
REB
8.6
AST
2.2
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham
PTS
20.2
REB
4.5
AST
8.1
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ausar Thompson
PTS
9.6
REB
5.0
AST
3.4
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Duncan Robinson
PTS
11.9
REB
2.7
AST
1.6
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Tobias Harris
PTS
12.1
REB
4.0
AST
2.0
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jalen Duren
PTS
19.4
REB
9.5
AST
1.9
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
LaMelo Ball
OR
116.7
DR
113.5
PTS
20.0
VS
Cade Cunningham
OR
119.4
DR
110.5
PTS
24.4
SG
Brandon Miller
OR
114.8
DR
113.2
PTS
20.2
VS
Ausar Thompson
OR
114.1
DR
104.9
PTS
9.9
SF
Kon Knueppel
OR
125.1
DR
116.2
PTS
18.7
VS
Duncan Robinson
OR
126.5
DR
115.2
PTS
12.1
PF
Miles Bridges
OR
120.7
DR
115.1
PTS
17.3
VS
Tobias Harris
OR
120.2
DR
111.3
PTS
13.2
C
Moussa Diabaté
OR
136.3
DR
111.2
PTS
7.9
VS
Jalen Duren
OR
132.8
DR
108.2
PTS
19.5
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Detroit Pistons are the pick to win (50.7% probability).
Expected starting fives — Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabaté. Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The models project a combined score of 226.94, signaling a moderately fast-paced, high-scoring game. The expected spread (Home − Away) is 3.17, giving the home side a few points of advantage. Note: two separate models are being reported here — one yields the win probability and another estimates the point spread — and both outputs are shown for transparency.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
226.9
Most likely outcome: 226 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Charlotte Hornets - Detroit Pistons)
3.2
Most likely outcome: 3 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show rising momentum over the last five games (Charlotte +14.0, Detroit +4.8).
Charlotte Hornets
1600.1
+14.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Boston Celtics | 1600.1 | -8.5 |
| 2026-04-05 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1608.6 | +10.4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Indiana Pacers | 1598.2 | +3.4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Phoenix Suns | 1594.8 | +8.7 |
| 2026-03-31 | Brooklyn Nets | 1586.1 | — |
Detroit Pistons
1653.6
+4.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1653.6 | +3.6 |
| 2026-04-06 | Orlando Magic | 1650.0 | -14.4 |
| 2026-04-04 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1664.4 | +8.0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1656.4 | +7.6 |
| 2026-03-31 | Toronto Raptors | 1648.8 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Charlotte Hornets
4-1 in last 5
L
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | 102 | 113 | -11 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 122 | 108 | +14 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 129 | 108 | +21 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 127 | 107 | +20 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 117 | 86 | +31 |
Detroit Pistons
4-1 in last 5
W
L
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks | 137 | 111 | +26 | |
| Orlando Magic | 107 | 123 | -16 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 116 | 93 | +23 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 113 | 108 | +5 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 127 | 116 | +11 |
Game Analysis
Charlotte arrives after two strong wins (122-108 vs Minnesota, 129-108 vs Indiana) but a 102-113 loss to Boston; that pattern suggests they can score in bunches but have issues against stronger defenses. Detroit’s last three include a dominant 137-111 win over Milwaukee, a 107-123 loss at Orlando, and a 116-93 win over Philadelphia — flashes of high ceiling and occasional inconsistency.
The Hornets’ projected starters average an offensive rating of 122.72, defensive rating of 113.84, and 16.82 points made per starter — their offense is potent but their defense is middling. The Pistons’ five average an offensive rating of 122.60, defensive rating of 110.02, and 15.82 points made per starter — nearly identical offense but a clearer defensive edge, led inside by Jalen Duren and the team’s lower collective defensive rating.
Final Prediction
Detroit’s defensive profile and interior presence give them a slight edge in a close, high-scoring matchup. Key factor to watch: how Jalen Duren and Detroit’s team defense handle Charlotte’s scorers, especially around the rim.
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