NBA 2025-2026: Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Houston Rockets

Home Team
74.6%
VS

Minnesota Timberwolves

Away Team
25.4%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Houston Rockets
PTS 12.4 REB 3.1 AST 3.6 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.0 REB 6.9 AST 5.4 3PM 0.2
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.2 REB 6.0 AST 1.6 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 23.6 REB 5.7 AST 5.0 3PM 2.3
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PTS 19.2 REB 8.8 AST 5.2 3PM 0.4
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AWAY Minnesota Timberwolves
PTS 24.9 REB 4.0 AST 4.0 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.1 REB 3.2 AST 3.4 3PM 2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 6.5 REB 4.4 AST 4.2 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.1 REB 3.8 AST 2.8 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.5 REB 6.0 AST 2.2 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Reed Sheppard
OR
117.7
DR
112.2
PTS
13.5
VS
Anthony Edwards
OR
117.2
DR
115.0
PTS
28.9
SG
Amen Thompson
OR
124.7
DR
113.7
PTS
18.0
VS
Donte DiVincenzo
OR
114.6
DR
114.4
PTS
12.2
SF
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
121.9
DR
114.4
PTS
15.8
VS
Kyle Anderson
OR
119.6
DR
111.9
PTS
3.9
PF
Kevin Durant
OR
125.4
DR
114.9
PTS
25.9
VS
Jaden McDaniels
OR
114.7
DR
115.0
PTS
14.8
C
Alperen Şengün
OR
116.6
DR
111.5
PTS
20.3
VS
Naz Reid
OR
106.2
DR
110.6
PTS
13.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Houston Rockets are projected to win (74.6% probability). Expected starting five — Houston Rockets: Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün. Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Kyle Anderson, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a high-scoring game with a combined total of 230.23 points, suggesting an up-tempo contest and plenty of offensive possessions. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 7.82, giving a sizable advantage to whichever team is the home side, though the overall projection still favors Houston.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 230.2 Most likely outcome: 230 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Houston Rockets - Minnesota Timberwolves) 7.8 Most likely outcome: 7 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Houston’s rating is rising while Minnesota’s is falling over the last five games.

Houston Rockets

1602.4 +27.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-09 Philadelphia 76ers 1602.4 +7.9
2026-04-07 Phoenix Suns 1594.5 +9.4
2026-04-05 Golden State Warriors 1585.1 +6.7
2026-04-03 Utah Jazz 1578.4 +3.7
2026-04-01 Milwaukee Bucks 1574.7 —

Minnesota Timberwolves

1541.1 -28.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-08 Orlando Magic 1541.1 -11.0
2026-04-07 Indiana Pacers 1552.1 +4.9
2026-04-05 Charlotte Hornets 1547.2 -10.4
2026-04-03 Philadelphia 76ers 1557.6 -11.6
2026-04-02 Detroit Pistons 1569.2 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Houston Rockets

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Philadelphia 76ers 113 102 +11
Phoenix Suns 119 105 +14
Golden State Warriors 117 116 +1
Utah Jazz 140 106 +34
Milwaukee Bucks 119 113 +6

Minnesota Timberwolves

1-4 in last 5
L W L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Orlando Magic 120 132 -12
Indiana Pacers 124 104 +20
Charlotte Hornets 108 122 -14
Philadelphia 76ers 103 115 -12
Detroit Pistons 108 113 -5

Game Analysis

Houston arrives on a three-game winning streak (wins over Philadelphia 113-102, Phoenix 119-105, Golden State 117-116) and a clear upward trend in team power (+27.7 over five games). Minnesota is inconsistent: a convincing win over Indiana (124-104) sandwiched between two heavy losses (120-132 to Orlando, 108-122 to Charlotte) and a five-game power drop of -28.1. That momentum gap favors the Rockets. Looking at the projected starters, Houston’s group averages an offensive rating of 121.26, defensive rating of 113.34, and 18.70 points made per starter — driven by Kevin Durant (125.4 ORtg, 25.9 PTS) and Amen Thompson (124.7 ORtg, 18.0 PTS). Minnesota’s starters average a 114.46 offensive rating, 113.38 defensive rating, and 14.68 points made per starter, with Anthony Edwards carrying the scoring load (117.2 ORtg, 28.9 PTS). Houston’s edge in starting offensive firepower and recent form helps explain the prediction.

Final Prediction

Houston’s upward momentum, stronger offensive profile among its starters, and three straight wins give them the edge. The key factor to watch is whether Minnesota can slow Houston’s starters — especially Durant and Amen Thompson — enough to flip the game despite the home-side spread.

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