NBA 2025-2026: Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Indiana Pacers

Home Team
32.9%
VS

Philadelphia 76ers

Away Team
67.1%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Indiana Pacers
PTS 12.5 REB 3.8 AST 4.7 3PM 1.2
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.0 REB 3.7 AST 2.2 3PM 1.9
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PTS 15.2 REB 6.2 AST 4.6 3PM 2.0
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PTS 9.9 REB 5.8 AST 2.2 3PM 1.4
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PTS 11.6 REB 6.2 AST 1.8 3PM 1.6
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AWAY Philadelphia 76ers
PTS 26.8 REB 3.9 AST 6.2 3PM 3.0
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PTS 18.8 REB 5.2 AST 4.5 3PM 2.3
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PTS 15.2 REB 5.1 AST 2.0 3PM 2.1
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PTS 21.1 REB 5.6 AST 4.4 3PM 2.9
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PTS 7.9 REB 5.4 AST 1.1 3PM 0.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Quenton Jackson
OR
108.2
DR
121.3
PTS
8.7
VS
Tyrese Maxey
OR
120.8
DR
115.9
PTS
28.3
SG
Ethan Thompson
OR
86.7
DR
117.3
PTS
6.3
VS
VJ Edgecombe
OR
113.5
DR
116.7
PTS
16.1
SF
Jarace Walker
OR
102.8
DR
118.3
PTS
11.6
VS
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
109.1
DR
117.1
PTS
14.1
PF
Kobe Brown
OR
116.6
DR
125.6
PTS
9.0
VS
Paul George
OR
111.8
DR
112.5
PTS
17.4
C
Micah Potter
OR
129.2
DR
119.3
PTS
9.6
VS
Adem Bona
OR
121.1
DR
114.7
PTS
4.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Philadelphia 76ers are the pick to win this one — probability 67.1%. Expected starting five — Indiana Pacers: Quenton Jackson, Ethan Thompson, Jarace Walker, Kobe Brown, Micah Potter. Expected starting five — Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Kelly Oubre Jr., Paul George, Adem Bona.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined total of 232.9 points, signaling a game that should play at a fairly high scoring pace. The expected spread is Home - Away = -5.79, meaning the away team is favored by about 5.8 points and gives Philadelphia a clear edge on the line.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 232.9 Most likely outcome: 232 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Indiana Pacers - Philadelphia 76ers) -5.8 Most likely outcome: -6 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Indiana’s power rating has ticked up +2.5 over five games while Philadelphia’s has dipped -8.9, indicating small upward momentum for the Pacers and a slide for the 76ers.

Indiana Pacers

1329.0 +2.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-09 Brooklyn Nets 1329.0 +13.5
2026-04-07 Minnesota Timberwolves 1315.5 -4.9
2026-04-05 Cleveland Cavaliers 1320.4 -2.6
2026-04-03 Charlotte Hornets 1323.0 -3.5
2026-04-01 Chicago Bulls 1326.5 —

Philadelphia 76ers

1513.4 -8.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-09 Houston Rockets 1513.4 -7.9
2026-04-06 San Antonio Spurs 1521.3 -4.6
2026-04-04 Detroit Pistons 1525.9 -8.1
2026-04-03 Minnesota Timberwolves 1534.0 +11.7
2026-04-01 Washington Wizards 1522.3 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Indiana Pacers

2-3 in last 5
W L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Brooklyn Nets 123 94 +29
Minnesota Timberwolves 104 124 -20
Cleveland Cavaliers 108 117 -9
Charlotte Hornets 108 129 -21
Chicago Bulls 145 126 +19

Philadelphia 76ers

2-3 in last 5
L L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Houston Rockets 102 113 -11
San Antonio Spurs 102 115 -13
Detroit Pistons 93 116 -23
Minnesota Timberwolves 115 103 +12
Washington Wizards 153 131 +22

Game Analysis

Indiana is 1-2 in its last three (a 123-94 win over Brooklyn, then losses 104-124 at Minnesota and 108-117 vs Cleveland). Those results show they can score in bursts but have allowed 121.7 points in losses. Philadelphia is 0-3 right now, dropping 102-113 to Houston, 102-115 to San Antonio, and 93-116 to Detroit, struggling on offense (about 99 points per game across those three) and getting hit for big totals. Looking at the projected starters, the Pacers’ five average an offensive rating of 108.7, defensive rating of 120.4, and about 9.0 points each; the 76ers’ five average an offensive rating of 115.3, defensive rating of 115.4, and about 16.2 points each. That gap — particularly Philadelphia’s higher offensive ceiling and substantially better team defensive rating among starters — helps explain the forecast.

Final Prediction

Philadelphia’s combination of offensive firepower and the starters’ stronger defensive profile gives them the edge despite recent losses. Watch Tyrese Maxey’s scoring and how the Pacers handle him against their middling defensive rating — that matchup will likely decide the game.

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