NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs Toronto Raptors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

New York Knicks

Home Team
66.4%
VS

Toronto Raptors

Away Team
33.6%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME New York Knicks
PTS 24.7 REB 3.3 AST 7.0 3PM 2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.3 REB 6.1 AST 5.1 3PM 1.4
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PTS 13.5 REB 3.6 AST 3.4 3PM 1.8
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.4 REB 5.3 AST 2.3 3PM 2.7
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PTS 20.1 REB 10.6 AST 4.2 3PM 1.3
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AWAY Toronto Raptors
PTS 8.8 REB 3.4 AST 1.9 3PM 1.8
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.7 REB 4.9 AST 4.1 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.5 REB 4.9 AST 3.3 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.7 REB 6.1 AST 5.1 3PM 0.9
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PTS 10.7 REB 5.9 AST 1.7 3PM 0.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.1
DR
116.9
PTS
26.0
VS
Ja'Kobe Walter
OR
111.5
DR
114.1
PTS
7.4
SG
Josh Hart
OR
121.0
DR
111.4
PTS
12.1
VS
Brandon Ingram
OR
109.9
DR
114.8
PTS
21.5
SF
Mikal Bridges
OR
126.4
DR
114.0
PTS
14.6
VS
RJ Barrett
OR
115.1
DR
114.7
PTS
19.1
PF
OG Anunoby
OR
117.9
DR
112.9
PTS
16.9
VS
Scottie Barnes
OR
115.4
DR
110.1
PTS
18.1
C
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
122.3
DR
110.1
PTS
20.0
VS
Jakob Poeltl
OR
129.2
DR
110.4
PTS
10.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model leans New York Knicks to win with a 66.4% probability. Expected starting fives — New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns; Toronto Raptors: Ja'Kobe Walter, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected combined total is 220.19 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game and a steady offensive pace rather than a defensive slugfest. The expected spread (home - away) is 9.97, meaning the home team would be favored by roughly 10 points, giving the home side a clear advantage on the spread.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 220.2 Most likely outcome: 220 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Toronto Raptors) 10.0 Most likely outcome: 10 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams are trending upward, with the Knicks rising more sharply (+30.9 over five games) than the Raptors (+21.5).

New York Knicks

1620.3 +30.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-09 Boston Celtics 1620.3 +10.9
2026-04-06 Atlanta Hawks 1609.4 +10.5
2026-04-03 Chicago Bulls 1598.9 +5.0
2026-04-01 Memphis Grizzlies 1593.9 +4.5
2026-03-31 Houston Rockets 1589.4 —

Toronto Raptors

1537.4 +21.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-09 Miami Heat 1537.4 +9.5
2026-04-07 Miami Heat 1527.9 +11.3
2026-04-05 Boston Celtics 1516.6 -6.3
2026-04-03 Memphis Grizzlies 1522.9 +7.0
2026-04-01 Sacramento Kings 1515.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

New York Knicks

4-1 in last 5
W W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 112 106 +6
Atlanta Hawks 108 105 +3
Chicago Bulls 136 96 +40
Memphis Grizzlies 130 119 +11
Houston Rockets 94 111 -17

Toronto Raptors

3-2 in last 5
W W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Miami Heat 128 114 +14
Miami Heat 121 95 +26
Boston Celtics 101 115 -14
Memphis Grizzlies 128 96 +32
Sacramento Kings 115 123 -8

Game Analysis

New York arrives on a three-game winning streak (wins over Boston 112-106, Atlanta 108-105, Chicago 136-96) showing both consistency and a blowout capability. Toronto is 2-1 over the last three (two big wins over Miami 128-114 and 121-95, and a loss to Boston 101-115), indicating hot offense but a vulnerability against top teams. Momentum favors the Knicks slightly stronger right now. Looking at the starters, New York’s five average offensive rating is about 121.7, defensive rating about 113.1, and average points made 17.9. Toronto’s projected starters average an offensive rating near 116.2, defensive rating about 112.8, and average points made 15.4. The Knicks have the edge offensively, while the defenses are comparable; Jakob Poeltl’s 129.2 offensive rating stands out for Toronto inside.

Final Prediction

The Knicks’ higher offensive profile, recent surge in power rating, and the 66.4% projected probability give them the edge. Key factor to watch: New York’s ability to score efficiently against Poeltl and how Toronto defends the paint.

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