NBA 2025-2026: Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles Clippers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Portland Trail Blazers

Home Team
55.7%
VS

Los Angeles Clippers

Away Team
44.3%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Portland Trail Blazers
PTS 17.3 REB 4.6 AST 6.5 3PM 3.1
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PTS 16.5 REB 3.4 AST 4.6 3PM 2.2
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PTS 25.0 REB 7.4 AST 6.7 3PM 1.9
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PTS 14.7 REB 5.1 AST 2.2 3PM 3.0
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PTS 11.0 REB 10.8 AST 1.7 3PM 1.0
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AWAY Los Angeles Clippers
PTS 20.2 REB 2.9 AST 5.6 3PM 2.9
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PTS 7.3 REB 3.4 AST 4.2 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 9.4 REB 4.1 AST 1.5 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 25.9 REB 6.1 AST 3.9 3PM 2.7
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PTS 11.0 REB 5.0 AST 1.5 3PM 1.8
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jrue Holiday
OR
116.2
DR
116.0
PTS
16.3
VS
Darius Garland
OR
118.6
DR
118.6
PTS
20.4
SG
Scoot Henderson
OR
108.0
DR
114.6
PTS
14.4
VS
Kris Dunn
OR
116.8
DR
115.9
PTS
7.3
SF
Deni Avdija
OR
116.2
DR
115.3
PTS
24.0
VS
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
122.2
DR
118.0
PTS
10.3
PF
Toumani Camara
OR
114.0
DR
116.2
PTS
13.5
VS
Kawhi Leonard
OR
125.0
DR
112.8
PTS
28.0
C
Donovan Clingan
OR
129.2
DR
110.1
PTS
12.0
VS
Brook Lopez
OR
100.7
DR
115.2
PTS
8.3
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Portland Trail Blazers are projected to win (55.7% probability). Expected starting five — Portland: Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan. Los Angeles Clippers: Darius Garland, Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, Brook Lopez.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects 231.18 combined points, pointing to a fast, high-scoring game with plenty of offense. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 2.51, favoring the home team by roughly 2.5 points — yet Portland is still picked to win despite that edge for the home side.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 231.2 Most likely outcome: 231 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Portland Trail Blazers - Los Angeles Clippers) 2.5 Most likely outcome: 2 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Portland’s power rating has trended up (+9.4 over five games) while the Clippers are roughly flat-to-down (-1.1), giving Portland momentum.

Portland Trail Blazers

1506.9 +9.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-08 San Antonio Spurs 1506.9 -4.0
2026-04-06 Denver Nuggets 1510.9 -7.2
2026-04-02 New Orleans Pelicans 1518.1 +7.7
2026-03-31 Los Angeles Clippers 1510.4 +12.9
2026-03-29 Washington Wizards 1497.5 —

Los Angeles Clippers

1542.8 -1.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-08 Oklahoma City Thunder 1542.8 -5.9
2026-04-07 Dallas Mavericks 1548.7 +4.7
2026-04-05 Sacramento Kings 1544.0 +6.5
2026-04-02 San Antonio Spurs 1537.5 -6.4
2026-03-31 Portland Trail Blazers 1543.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Portland Trail Blazers

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 101 112 -11
Denver Nuggets 132 137 -5
New Orleans Pelicans 118 106 +12
Los Angeles Clippers 114 104 +10
Washington Wizards 123 88 +35

Los Angeles Clippers

2-3 in last 5
L W W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 110 128 -18
Dallas Mavericks 116 103 +13
Sacramento Kings 138 109 +29
San Antonio Spurs 99 118 -19
Portland Trail Blazers 104 114 -10

Game Analysis

Portland is 1-2 in its last three, dropping tight games to Denver (132-137) and San Antonio (101-112) but beating New Orleans 118-106, showing offensive punch but some defensive inconsistency. The Clippers are 2-1, recovering from a heavy loss to Oklahoma City (110-128) with strong wins over Dallas (116-103) and Sacramento (138-109), indicating they can score in bursts but can also be vulnerable. Looking at the expected starting units, Portland’s five average offensive rating is 116.72, defensive rating 114.44, and average points made 16.04 — a balanced, slightly defense-leaning group. The Clippers’ starters average offensive rating 116.66, defensive rating 116.10, and average points made 14.86 — similar offense but weaker defense. Matchups to watch include Donovan Clingan (ORtg 129.2, DRtg 110.1) against Brook Lopez (ORtg 100.7, DRtg 115.2) and how Deni Avdija’s 24.0 scoring capacity is contained.

Final Prediction

Portland’s upward momentum, a marginally better starting-unit defense, and balanced scoring give them the edge. Key factor: how the interior matchup (Clingan vs. Lopez) and Avdija’s scoring hold up against Kawhi and Garland’s firepower.

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