NBA 2025-2026: Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Sacramento Kings

Home Team
21.9%
VS

Golden State Warriors

Away Team
78.1%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Sacramento Kings
PTS 13.0 REB 4.6 AST 4.9 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.5 REB 2.9 AST 1.9 3PM 2.5
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PTS 12.4 REB 4.7 AST 3.7 3PM 1.7
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PTS 13.6 REB 8.2 AST 2.1 3PM 0.5
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PTS 14.5 REB 8.8 AST 2.1 3PM 0.3
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AWAY Golden State Warriors
PTS 14.0 REB 4.0 AST 4.2 3PM 2.1
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 25.6 REB 4.0 AST 4.7 3PM 4.2
Distribution (PDF)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.2 REB 5.7 AST 6.3 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.3 REB 4.8 AST 3.2 3PM 1.8
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PTS 18.9 REB 6.4 AST 2.2 3PM 1.8
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Devin Carter
OR
98.4
DR
122.4
PTS
8.4
VS
De'Anthony Melton
OR
96.7
DR
113.7
PTS
12.4
SG
Daeqwon Plowden
OR
111.9
DR
126.0
PTS
10.5
VS
Stephen Curry
OR
118.6
DR
116.8
PTS
27.0
SF
Nique Clifford
OR
92.4
DR
121.7
PTS
8.2
VS
Draymond Green
OR
103.8
DR
114.7
PTS
8.4
PF
Precious Achiuwa
OR
114.2
DR
119.1
PTS
9.9
VS
Gui Santos
OR
115.4
DR
114.5
PTS
9.3
C
Maxime Raynaud
OR
114.2
DR
121.0
PTS
12.2
VS
Kristaps Porziņģis
OR
112.8
DR
118.3
PTS
16.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Golden State Warriors are the pick to win (78.1% probability). Expected starting five — Sacramento Kings: Devin Carter, Daeqwon Plowden, Nique Clifford, Precious Achiuwa, Maxime Raynaud. Golden State Warriors: De'Anthony Melton, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Gui Santos, Kristaps Porziņģis.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined total of 227.41 points, signaling a moderately fast-paced game with scoring potential on both ends. The expected spread is -9.23 (home - away), which implies a roughly 9.2-point advantage to Golden State as the favorite.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 227.4 Most likely outcome: 227 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Sacramento Kings - Golden State Warriors) -9.2 Most likely outcome: -10 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Sacramento’s power rating has been rising over the last five games while Golden State’s has slipped slightly.

Sacramento Kings

1338.4 +13.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-07 Golden State Warriors 1338.4 -6.5
2026-04-05 Los Angeles Clippers 1344.9 -6.5
2026-04-03 New Orleans Pelicans 1351.4 +11.5
2026-04-01 Toronto Raptors 1339.9 +14.8
2026-03-29 Brooklyn Nets 1325.1 —

Golden State Warriors

1440.3 -13.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-09 Los Angeles Lakers 1440.3 -6.9
2026-04-07 Sacramento Kings 1447.2 +6.5
2026-04-05 Houston Rockets 1440.7 -6.7
2026-04-02 Cleveland Cavaliers 1447.4 -6.5
2026-04-01 San Antonio Spurs 1453.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Sacramento Kings

2-3 in last 5
L L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Golden State Warriors 105 110 -5
Los Angeles Clippers 109 138 -29
New Orleans Pelicans 117 113 +4
Toronto Raptors 123 115 +8
Brooklyn Nets 99 116 -17

Golden State Warriors

1-4 in last 5
L W L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Lakers 103 119 -16
Sacramento Kings 110 105 +5
Houston Rockets 116 117 -1
Cleveland Cavaliers 111 118 -7
San Antonio Spurs 113 127 -14

Game Analysis

Both teams enter off mixed recent form: Sacramento is 1-2 over the last three (loss to Golden State 105-110, blowout loss to the Clippers 109-138, win over the Pelicans 117-113), showing an ability to score but vulnerability on defense. Golden State is also 1-2 (loss to Lakers 103-119, win at Sacramento 110-105, tight loss to Houston 116-117), suggesting inconsistency but the capacity to close out close games. Looking at the projected starters, Sacramento’s five average an offensive rating of 106.22, defensive rating of 122.04, and 9.84 points made per player — solid scoring depth but defensive strain. Golden State’s projected starters average a 109.46 offensive rating, 115.60 defensive rating, and 14.78 points made per player, giving them both higher scoring and a notably better team defense profile. Those gaps in defensive rating and points-per-starter tilt the matchup toward the Warriors.

Final Prediction

Golden State’s superior balance between offense and defense and higher per-starter scoring give them the edge in this matchup. Watch Stephen Curry’s scoring and how Sacramento defends Kristaps Porziņģis — those matchups will likely decide the margin.

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