NBA 2025-2026: Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Boston Celtics
Home Team
27.4%
VS
Orlando Magic
Away Team
72.6%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Boston Celtics
Baylor Scheierman
PTS
8.1
REB
3.3
AST
2.2
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Hugo González
PTS
6.6
REB
3.7
AST
1.4
3PM
0.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ron Harper Jr.
PTS
7.7
REB
2.7
AST
1.7
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jordan Walsh
PTS
7.5
REB
4.0
AST
1.3
3PM
0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Luka Garza
PTS
10.3
REB
5.1
AST
1.3
3PM
0.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Orlando Magic
Jalen Suggs
PTS
13.4
REB
3.7
AST
6.0
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Desmond Bane
PTS
18.5
REB
3.9
AST
3.6
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Franz Wagner
PTS
18.9
REB
4.3
AST
2.8
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Paolo Banchero
PTS
21.0
REB
7.6
AST
4.8
3PM
1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Wendell Carter Jr.
PTS
12.2
REB
6.1
AST
1.4
3PM
0.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Baylor Scheierman
OR
119.2
DR
113.7
PTS
5.2
VS
Jalen Suggs
OR
108.2
DR
109.3
PTS
13.6
SG
Hugo González
OR
105.6
DR
111.5
PTS
3.9
VS
Desmond Bane
OR
119.5
DR
116.8
PTS
20.2
SF
Ron Harper Jr.
OR
94.5
DR
111.3
PTS
3.4
VS
Franz Wagner
OR
121.1
DR
113.9
PTS
20.6
PF
Jordan Walsh
OR
114.4
DR
112.9
PTS
5.3
VS
Paolo Banchero
OR
111.5
DR
114.9
PTS
22.2
C
Luka Garza
OR
141.4
DR
113.6
PTS
7.8
VS
Wendell Carter Jr.
OR
123.1
DR
113.6
PTS
11.9
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Orlando Magic are the pick to win (72.6% probability).
Expected starting five — Boston Celtics: Baylor Scheierman, Hugo González, Ron Harper Jr., Jordan Walsh, Luka Garza. Expected starting five — Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 222.0 points, implying an uptempo, high-scoring game where both offenses can run. The expected spread (Home - Away) of -1.53 favors the visiting Orlando Magic by about 1.5 points, giving them a small pregame edge on the road.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
222.0
Most likely outcome: 221 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Boston Celtics - Orlando Magic)
-1.5
Most likely outcome: -2 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Boston’s rating has ticked up modestly (+7.8 over five games) while Orlando’s has climbed sharply (+40.1), showing stronger momentum for the Magic.
Boston Celtics
1659.5
+7.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1659.5 | +4.0 |
| 2026-04-09 | New York Knicks | 1655.5 | -10.9 |
| 2026-04-07 | Charlotte Hornets | 1666.4 | +8.4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Toronto Raptors | 1658.0 | +6.3 |
| 2026-04-03 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1651.7 | — |
Orlando Magic
1546.4
+40.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Chicago Bulls | 1546.4 | +6.9 |
| 2026-04-08 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1539.5 | +11.0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Detroit Pistons | 1528.5 | +14.4 |
| 2026-04-05 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1514.1 | +7.8 |
| 2026-04-03 | Dallas Mavericks | 1506.3 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Boston Celtics
4-1 in last 5
W
L
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | 144 | 118 | +26 | |
| New York Knicks | 106 | 112 | -6 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 113 | 102 | +11 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 115 | 101 | +14 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 133 | 101 | +32 |
Orlando Magic
5-0 in last 5
W
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bulls | 127 | 103 | +24 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 132 | 120 | +12 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 123 | 107 | +16 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 112 | 108 | +4 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 138 | 127 | +11 |
Game Analysis
Boston is 2-1 in its last three with a 144-118 win over New Orleans, a 106-112 loss to New York, and a 113-102 victory over Charlotte — a mix of a high-scoring outing and tighter results. Orlando is rolling at 3-0, winning 127-103, 132-120, and 123-107, clearly riding an offensive wave and margin of victory. Those recent results favor the Magic’s confidence and rhythm.
Looking at the expected starters, Boston’s five average an offensive rating of 115.02 and a defensive rating of 112.6, combining for 25.6 points made (5.12 per player on average). Orlando’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 116.68 and a defensive rating of 113.7, combining for 88.5 points made (17.7 per player). The Magic’s starters present a much larger scoring footprint, while Boston shows a slight defensive edge.
Final Prediction
Orlando’s clear momentum, higher starter scoring and rising ratings give them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: whether Boston can slow Orlando’s primary scorers and reduce that large scoring gap from the starting five.
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