NBA 2025-2026: Dallas Mavericks vs Chicago Bulls: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Dallas Mavericks
Home Team
43.4%
VS
Chicago Bulls
Away Team
56.6%
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HOME Dallas Mavericks
Ryan Nembhard
PTS
10.8
REB
3.5
AST
6.8
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Max Christie
PTS
14.0
REB
3.4
AST
2.6
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Cooper Flagg
PTS
25.8
REB
6.9
AST
5.3
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Khris Middleton
PTS
11.4
REB
3.8
AST
2.9
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Dwight Powell
PTS
4.7
REB
6.3
AST
2.3
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Chicago Bulls
Tre Jones
PTS
17.6
REB
3.6
AST
6.5
3PM
1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Collin Sexton
PTS
19.2
REB
3.9
AST
3.7
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Leonard Miller
PTS
14.4
REB
6.6
AST
2.0
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Patrick Williams
PTS
10.7
REB
4.2
AST
2.4
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Lachlan Olbrich
PTS
6.1
REB
6.1
AST
2.1
3PM
0.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Ryan Nembhard
OR
102.0
DR
120.5
PTS
6.5
VS
Tre Jones
OR
129.9
DR
118.2
PTS
14.2
SG
Max Christie
OR
112.9
DR
119.5
PTS
12.3
VS
Collin Sexton
OR
112.6
DR
117.6
PTS
17.4
SF
Cooper Flagg
OR
108.2
DR
115.4
PTS
21.2
VS
Leonard Miller
OR
117.2
DR
118.0
PTS
11.5
PF
Khris Middleton
OR
98.2
DR
124.1
PTS
10.0
VS
Patrick Williams
OR
92.8
DR
120.1
PTS
6.9
C
Dwight Powell
OR
120.1
DR
116.4
PTS
3.3
VS
Lachlan Olbrich
OR
95.2
DR
120.4
PTS
2.2
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Chicago Bulls win (56.6% probability).
Expected starting five — Dallas Mavericks: Ryan Nembhard, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Khris Middleton, Dwight Powell. Chicago Bulls: Tre Jones, Collin Sexton, Leonard Miller, Patrick Williams, Lachlan Olbrich.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects 239.09 combined points, pointing to a fairly high-scoring affair and a decent pace from both benches and starters. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -2.38, which implies a roughly 2.4-point edge to the visiting side — an advantage that aligns with the Bulls being the pick.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
239.1
Most likely outcome: 239 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Dallas Mavericks - Chicago Bulls)
-2.4
Most likely outcome: -3 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show rising momentum in power ratings over the last five games: Chicago up +4.9, Dallas up +3.0.
Dallas Mavericks
1348.1
+3.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | San Antonio Spurs | 1348.1 | -1.7 |
| 2026-04-08 | Phoenix Suns | 1349.8 | -5.2 |
| 2026-04-07 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1355.0 | -4.7 |
| 2026-04-05 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1359.7 | +14.6 |
| 2026-04-03 | Orlando Magic | 1345.1 | — |
Chicago Bulls
1372.9
+4.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Orlando Magic | 1372.9 | -7.0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Washington Wizards | 1379.9 | +8.1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Washington Wizards | 1371.8 | +10.4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Phoenix Suns | 1361.4 | -6.6 |
| 2026-04-03 | New York Knicks | 1368.0 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Dallas Mavericks
1-4 in last 5
L
L
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 120 | 139 | -19 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 107 | 112 | -5 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 103 | 116 | -13 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 134 | 128 | +6 | |
| Orlando Magic | 127 | 138 | -11 |
Chicago Bulls
2-3 in last 5
L
W
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Magic | 103 | 127 | -24 | |
| Washington Wizards | 119 | 108 | +11 | |
| Washington Wizards | 129 | 98 | +31 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 110 | 120 | -10 | |
| New York Knicks | 96 | 136 | -40 |
Game Analysis
Dallas arrives in a rough patch, dropping three straight (losses to San Antonio 120-139, Phoenix 107-112, and LA Clippers 103-116). They’ve struggled to stop penetration and conceded big point totals, while their scoring has ticked down. Chicago is 2-1 over the last three with back-to-back wins over Washington (119-108, 129-98) after a lopsided loss to Orlando (103-127), showing the capacity to bounce back and score in bunches.
Looking at the projected starting units, Dallas’s five average an offensive rating of 108.28, defensive rating of 119.18, and 10.66 points made per starter; Chicago’s five average an offensive rating of 109.54, defensive rating of 118.86, and 10.44 points made per starter. Those small edges in offensive and defensive ratings tilt the matchup toward the Bulls, while scoring per starter is nearly identical.
Final Prediction
Chicago’s slight two-way rating advantage and stronger recent power-rating momentum give them the edge in a high-scoring game. Watch how Chicago defends Cooper Flagg and whether Tre Jones can sustain his high offensive impact — that matchup will likely decide the outcome.
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