NBA 2025-2026: Indiana Pacers vs Detroit Pistons: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Indiana Pacers
Home Team
19.6%
VS
Detroit Pistons
Away Team
80.4%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Indiana Pacers
Quenton Jackson
PTS
13.0
REB
3.5
AST
5.0
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ethan Thompson
PTS
9.6
REB
3.4
AST
2.7
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jarace Walker
PTS
14.8
REB
5.4
AST
4.3
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Kobe Brown
PTS
8.9
REB
5.0
AST
2.8
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Micah Potter
PTS
12.2
REB
6.1
AST
2.2
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham
PTS
20.8
REB
4.2
AST
7.9
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ausar Thompson
PTS
10.4
REB
5.5
AST
3.8
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Duncan Robinson
PTS
13.1
REB
2.7
AST
1.8
3PM
3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Tobias Harris
PTS
12.3
REB
4.1
AST
2.3
3PM
1.3
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Paul Reed
PTS
8.3
REB
6.2
AST
1.2
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Quenton Jackson
OR
108.1
DR
121.0
PTS
8.9
VS
Cade Cunningham
OR
119.2
DR
110.6
PTS
24.2
SG
Ethan Thompson
OR
87.3
DR
116.8
PTS
6.6
VS
Ausar Thompson
OR
114.0
DR
104.9
PTS
9.9
SF
Jarace Walker
OR
102.9
DR
118.2
PTS
11.6
VS
Duncan Robinson
OR
126.7
DR
115.1
PTS
12.2
PF
Kobe Brown
OR
115.4
DR
124.8
PTS
9.0
VS
Tobias Harris
OR
120.2
DR
111.0
PTS
13.1
C
Micah Potter
OR
128.3
DR
118.7
PTS
9.6
VS
Paul Reed
OR
115.0
DR
102.7
PTS
7.5
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Detroit Pistons are the pick to win (80.4% probability).
Expected starting five — Indiana Pacers: Quenton Jackson, Ethan Thompson, Jarace Walker, Kobe Brown, Micah Potter. Expected starting five — Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Paul Reed.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 226.07 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game and an uptempo affair from both sides. The expected spread is -12.52 (home − away), which means the away team — Detroit in this matchup — is favored by about 12.5 points, a substantial edge.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
226.1
Most likely outcome: 226 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Indiana Pacers - Detroit Pistons)
-12.5
Most likely outcome: -13 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Indiana Pacers
1323.4
+0.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1323.4 | -5.6 |
| 2026-04-09 | Brooklyn Nets | 1329.0 | +13.5 |
| 2026-04-07 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1315.5 | -4.9 |
| 2026-04-05 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1320.4 | -2.6 |
| 2026-04-03 | Charlotte Hornets | 1323.0 | — |
Detroit Pistons
1664.2
+7.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Charlotte Hornets | 1664.2 | +10.6 |
| 2026-04-08 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1653.6 | +3.6 |
| 2026-04-06 | Orlando Magic | 1650.0 | -14.4 |
| 2026-04-04 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1664.4 | +8.0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1656.4 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Indiana Pacers
1-4 in last 5
L
W
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers | 94 | 105 | -11 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 123 | 94 | +29 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 104 | 124 | -20 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 108 | 117 | -9 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 108 | 129 | -21 |
Detroit Pistons
4-1 in last 5
W
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Hornets | 118 | 100 | +18 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 137 | 111 | +26 | |
| Orlando Magic | 107 | 123 | -16 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 116 | 93 | +23 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 113 | 108 | +5 |
Game Analysis
Indiana is 1-2 in their last three, falling to Philadelphia 94-105 and Minnesota 104-124 while beating Brooklyn 123-94; their results show inconsistency on both ends. Detroit comes in 2-1, with strong offensive showings in wins over Charlotte (118-100) and Milwaukee (137-111) despite a 107-123 loss to Orlando, indicating they’ve been hotter offensively recently.
Looking at the expected starters, Indiana’s five average an offensive rating of 108.4, defensive rating of 119.9, and about 9.1 points made per starter — a group that looks below average on both ends. Detroit’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 119.0, defensive rating of 108.9, and about 13.4 points made per starter, giving them clear advantages in both efficiency and scoring output from the starting unit.
Final Prediction
Detroit’s rising form and the clear edge in starter efficiency explain why they’re favored. Watch Cade Cunningham (24.2 points made average for the starters) and how Detroit’s starters translate their better defensive rating into stops — that will likely decide the margin.
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