NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Lakers vs Utah Jazz: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Los Angeles Lakers
Home Team
95.8%
VS
Utah Jazz
Away Team
4.2%
Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.
Set it upPlayer Projections
AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Los Angeles Lakers
Marcus Smart
PTS
13.8
REB
4.4
AST
6.3
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Luke Kennard
PTS
15.2
REB
3.9
AST
5.3
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
LeBron James
PTS
25.3
REB
7.3
AST
8.7
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jake LaRavia
PTS
12.6
REB
5.7
AST
2.6
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Deandre Ayton
PTS
15.0
REB
7.6
AST
1.3
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Utah Jazz
Cody Williams
PTS
12.7
REB
3.8
AST
3.7
3PM
1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ace Bailey
PTS
15.4
REB
4.4
AST
2.4
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Bez Mbeng
PTS
10.3
REB
4.1
AST
4.1
3PM
0.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Brice Sensabaugh
PTS
17.6
REB
4.0
AST
3.2
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Oscar Tshiebwe
PTS
10.2
REB
8.7
AST
1.7
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Marcus Smart
OR
106.4
DR
115.9
PTS
9.4
VS
Cody Williams
OR
98.9
DR
124.6
PTS
8.7
SG
Luke Kennard
OR
125.1
DR
117.9
PTS
9.2
VS
Ace Bailey
OR
105.6
DR
122.8
PTS
13.8
SF
LeBron James
OR
118.8
DR
116.0
PTS
21.0
VS
Bez Mbeng
OR
100.1
DR
120.6
PTS
7.7
PF
Jake LaRavia
OR
114.0
DR
115.8
PTS
8.3
VS
Brice Sensabaugh
OR
107.1
DR
125.5
PTS
14.9
C
Deandre Ayton
OR
125.6
DR
115.1
PTS
12.3
VS
Oscar Tshiebwe
OR
132.8
DR
122.0
PTS
7.0
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Los Angeles Lakers are projected to win (95.8% probability).
Expected starting five — Los Angeles Lakers: Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, LeBron James, Jake LaRavia, Deandre Ayton.
Expected starting five — Utah Jazz: Cody Williams, Ace Bailey, Bez Mbeng, Brice Sensabaugh, Oscar Tshiebwe.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 235.51 points, signaling a fast-paced game with both teams able to score in bunches. The expected spread is 9.58 (home − away), giving the home side roughly a 9.6-point edge — a sizable margin favoring the Lakers if they’re at home.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
235.5
Most likely outcome: 235 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Lakers - Utah Jazz)
9.6
Most likely outcome: 9 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Lakers’ rating shows a slight overall dip over five games with a recent uptick, while Utah’s trend is mildly rising/stable.
Los Angeles Lakers
1607.5
-8.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Phoenix Suns | 1607.5 | +8.6 |
| 2026-04-09 | Golden State Warriors | 1598.9 | +6.9 |
| 2026-04-07 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1592.0 | -9.4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Dallas Mavericks | 1601.4 | -14.7 |
| 2026-04-02 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1616.1 | — |
Utah Jazz
1307.1
+2.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1307.1 | +14.6 |
| 2026-04-07 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1292.5 | -7.4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1299.9 | -1.6 |
| 2026-04-03 | Houston Rockets | 1301.5 | -3.6 |
| 2026-04-01 | Denver Nuggets | 1305.1 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Los Angeles Lakers
2-3 in last 5
W
W
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns | 101 | 73 | +28 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 119 | 103 | +16 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 87 | 123 | -36 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 128 | 134 | -6 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 96 | 139 | -43 |
Utah Jazz
1-4 in last 5
W
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis Grizzlies | 147 | 101 | +46 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 137 | 156 | -19 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 111 | 146 | -35 | |
| Houston Rockets | 106 | 140 | -34 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 117 | 130 | -13 |
Game Analysis
Los Angeles arrives with two solid wins (101–73 vs Phoenix, 119–103 vs Golden State) but a heavy 87–123 loss to Oklahoma City, suggesting they can dominate defensively but remain vulnerable to blowouts. Utah split recent results with a huge 147–101 win over Memphis but allowed 156 and 146 points in two losses, highlighting inconsistent defense despite their occasional offensive outburst.
The Lakers’ projected starting five average an offensive rating of 117.98, defensive rating of 116.14, and 12.04 points made per starter — a balanced group with above-average offensive firepower led by LeBron and Ayton. The Jazz starters average an offensive rating of 108.90, defensive rating of 123.10, and 10.42 points made per starter, underlining offensive limitations and defensive struggles that the Lakers can exploit.
Final Prediction
The Lakers’ superior offensive profile and more consistent two-way starters give them the clear edge in this matchup. Watch whether Utah can slow the Lakers’ transition scoring and limit Deandre Ayton and LeBron in the paint — that will decide how close the game stays to the projected spread.
Get Daily NBA Predictions
Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.
Join Our Telegram Channel