NBA 2025-2026: Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Miami Heat
Home Team
80.7%
VS
Atlanta Hawks
Away Team
19.3%
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HOME Miami Heat
Davion Mitchell
PTS
11.2
REB
3.3
AST
7.2
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Pelle Larsson
PTS
14.7
REB
4.2
AST
4.7
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Tyler Herro
PTS
19.3
REB
4.7
AST
5.0
3PM
2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Andrew Wiggins
PTS
15.0
REB
4.9
AST
3.2
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Bam Adebayo
PTS
21.1
REB
9.9
AST
4.4
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Atlanta Hawks
Keaton Wallace
PTS
7.2
REB
2.7
AST
3.4
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Corey Kispert
PTS
9.7
REB
3.1
AST
1.7
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Zaccharie Risacher
PTS
9.7
REB
4.1
AST
1.5
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Asa Newell
PTS
7.2
REB
3.8
AST
1.8
3PM
1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Mouhamed Gueye
PTS
6.8
REB
4.8
AST
1.4
3PM
1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Davion Mitchell
OR
121.0
DR
116.9
PTS
9.3
VS
Keaton Wallace
OR
97.7
DR
115.8
PTS
3.4
SG
Pelle Larsson
OR
118.2
DR
117.7
PTS
11.4
VS
Corey Kispert
OR
113.4
DR
117.3
PTS
8.9
SF
Tyler Herro
OR
118.5
DR
120.1
PTS
21.0
VS
Zaccharie Risacher
OR
109.2
DR
113.7
PTS
9.5
PF
Andrew Wiggins
OR
117.8
DR
114.7
PTS
15.5
VS
Asa Newell
OR
103.5
DR
114.9
PTS
4.9
C
Bam Adebayo
OR
114.8
DR
111.8
PTS
20.0
VS
Mouhamed Gueye
OR
101.6
DR
111.1
PTS
4.4
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The pick: Miami Heat to win (80.7% probability).
Expected starting fives — Miami Heat: Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo. Atlanta Hawks: Keaton Wallace, Corey Kispert, Zaccharie Risacher, Asa Newell, Mouhamed Gueye.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The game’s expected combined score is 236.2, pointing to a high-scoring affair and an up-tempo game environment where offenses will likely dictate the flow. The projected spread (Home - Away) is 10.17, giving a roughly 10-point edge to the home side — in this projection that advantage falls to Miami.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
236.2
Most likely outcome: 236 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Miami Heat - Atlanta Hawks)
10.2
Most likely outcome: 10 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Miami’s power rating has fallen over the last five games while Atlanta’s has been relatively stable with only minor fluctuation.
Miami Heat
1494.8
-11.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Washington Wizards | 1494.8 | +5.1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Toronto Raptors | 1489.7 | -9.5 |
| 2026-04-07 | Toronto Raptors | 1499.2 | -11.3 |
| 2026-04-04 | Washington Wizards | 1510.5 | +4.2 |
| 2026-04-01 | Boston Celtics | 1506.3 | — |
Atlanta Hawks
1590.0
-2.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1590.0 | +12.7 |
| 2026-04-08 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1577.3 | -8.8 |
| 2026-04-06 | New York Knicks | 1586.1 | -10.5 |
| 2026-04-03 | Brooklyn Nets | 1596.6 | +4.4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Orlando Magic | 1592.2 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Miami Heat
2-3 in last 5
W
L
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Wizards | 140 | 117 | +23 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 114 | 128 | -14 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 95 | 121 | -26 | |
| Washington Wizards | 152 | 136 | +16 | |
| Boston Celtics | 129 | 147 | -18 |
Atlanta Hawks
3-2 in last 5
W
L
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 124 | 102 | +22 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 116 | 122 | -6 | |
| New York Knicks | 105 | 108 | -3 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 141 | 107 | +34 | |
| Orlando Magic | 130 | 101 | +29 |
Game Analysis
Both teams enter with 1-2 records over the last three games. Miami’s recent results include a 140-117 win over Washington and two losses to Toronto (114-128 and 95-121), showing they can explode offensively but have been inconsistent. Atlanta is coming off a 124-102 win over Cleveland sandwiched between two close losses (116-122 to Cleveland, 105-108 to New York), suggesting competitive play but uneven scoring output.
Looking at the expected starting fives, Miami’s group averages an offensive rating of about 118.1, a defensive rating near 116.2, and 15.4 average points made per starter; that group carries the scoring punch (Tyler Herro 21.0, Bam Adebayo 20.0). Atlanta’s projected starters average roughly a 105.1 offensive rating, a 114.6 defensive rating, and only 6.2 points made per starter, indicating Miami’s starters should outscore and out-impact their counterparts.
Final Prediction
Miami’s superior offensive profile and deeper expected scoring from the starting five give them a clear edge in this matchup. Key thing to watch: can Miami’s top scorers (Herro and Adebayo) sustain high efficiency, or will Atlanta’s defense find a way to slow them and flip the pace?
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