NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs Charlotte Hornets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

New York Knicks

Home Team
45.8%
VS

Charlotte Hornets

Away Team
54.2%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME New York Knicks
PTS 9.3 REB 3.3 AST 5.1 3PM 1.4
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.4 REB 2.8 AST 2.6 3PM 2.5
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PTS 9.5 REB 3.1 AST 2.0 3PM 1.1
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PTS 13.6 REB 3.7 AST 3.0 3PM 1.9
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PTS 4.8 REB 5.2 AST 1.1 3PM 0.1
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AWAY Charlotte Hornets
PTS 21.6 REB 4.3 AST 7.3 3PM 3.9
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PTS 19.1 REB 4.3 AST 3.0 3PM 3.0
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PTS 17.2 REB 4.5 AST 3.1 3PM 3.0
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 16.8 REB 5.7 AST 3.1 3PM 2.2
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PTS 7.6 REB 7.9 AST 1.9 3PM 0.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jose Alvarado
OR
106.7
DR
111.5
PTS
6.3
VS
LaMelo Ball
OR
116.8
DR
113.6
PTS
20.1
SG
Miles McBride
OR
120.6
DR
116.7
PTS
11.8
VS
Brandon Miller
OR
114.8
DR
113.2
PTS
20.2
SF
Jordan Clarkson
OR
104.7
DR
118.0
PTS
8.7
VS
Kon Knueppel
OR
124.5
DR
116.4
PTS
18.6
PF
Mikal Bridges
OR
126.3
DR
113.8
PTS
14.6
VS
Miles Bridges
OR
120.9
DR
115.1
PTS
17.2
C
Ariel Hukporti
OR
122.3
DR
109.6
PTS
2.1
VS
Moussa Diabaté
OR
136.3
DR
111.4
PTS
7.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Charlotte Hornets are the pick, with a 54.2% probability to win this one. Expected starting five — New York Knicks: Jose Alvarado, Miles McBride, Jordan Clarkson, Mikal Bridges, Ariel Hukporti. Expected starting five — Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabaté.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 221.12 points, pointing to a fairly high-scoring game and a decent offensive pace from both teams. The spread is Home - Away = -1.28, a slim edge (about 1.3 points) in favor of the away team.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 221.1 Most likely outcome: 221 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Charlotte Hornets) -1.3 Most likely outcome: -2 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

New York’s power rating is on the rise (1593.9 → 1628.1, +34.2) while Charlotte’s has dipped slightly over the last five games (1594.8 → 1589.6, -5.2).

New York Knicks

1628.1 +34.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-10 Toronto Raptors 1628.1 +7.8
2026-04-09 Boston Celtics 1620.3 +10.9
2026-04-06 Atlanta Hawks 1609.4 +10.5
2026-04-03 Chicago Bulls 1598.9 +5.0
2026-04-01 Memphis Grizzlies 1593.9 —

Charlotte Hornets

1589.6 -5.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-10 Detroit Pistons 1589.6 -10.5
2026-04-07 Boston Celtics 1600.1 -8.5
2026-04-05 Minnesota Timberwolves 1608.6 +10.4
2026-04-03 Indiana Pacers 1598.2 +3.4
2026-04-02 Phoenix Suns 1594.8 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

New York Knicks

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Toronto Raptors 112 95 +17
Boston Celtics 112 106 +6
Atlanta Hawks 108 105 +3
Chicago Bulls 136 96 +40
Memphis Grizzlies 130 119 +11

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Detroit Pistons 100 118 -18
Boston Celtics 102 113 -11
Minnesota Timberwolves 122 108 +14
Indiana Pacers 129 108 +21
Phoenix Suns 127 107 +20

Game Analysis

New York comes in hot, riding a three-game win streak: 112-95 at Toronto, 112-106 vs Boston, and 108-105 vs Atlanta. Charlotte has been inconsistent over its last three — a strong 122-108 win over Minnesota sandwiched between losses at Boston (102-113) and an ugly 100-118 defeat to Detroit. Looking at the expected fives, New York’s starters average an offensive rating of 116.12 and a defensive rating of 113.92, combining for 43.5 points (8.7 per starter). Charlotte’s projected starters bring a higher offensive punch — average offensive rating 122.66, defensive rating 113.94, and a combined 84.0 points (16.8 per starter). That offensive gap is the clearest matchup determinant: both teams defend at similar levels on paper, but Charlotte’s starting unit projects to create more scoring.

Final Prediction

Charlotte’s edge comes down to superior starting-five scoring and a spread that slightly favors the visitors. Watch whether New York’s defense can contain Charlotte’s high-efficiency starters, because that matchup will likely decide the outcome.

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