NBA 2025-2026: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Oklahoma City Thunder

Home Team
71.5%
VS

Phoenix Suns

Away Team
28.5%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Oklahoma City Thunder
PTS 7.6 REB 2.6 AST 5.0 3PM 1.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.4 REB 3.2 AST 1.8 3PM 1.5
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PTS 11.9 REB 2.8 AST 1.6 3PM 1.9
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PTS 8.3 REB 3.4 AST 1.4 3PM 2.0
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PTS 9.3 REB 4.6 AST 1.2 3PM 1.0
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AWAY Phoenix Suns
PTS 11.1 REB 3.5 AST 3.6 3PM 2.8
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PTS 8.4 REB 4.3 AST 2.0 3PM 1.8
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PTS 19.1 REB 3.9 AST 3.0 3PM 2.5
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PTS 5.7 REB 4.0 AST 1.5 3PM 1.4
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PTS 11.1 REB 7.5 AST 1.3 3PM 0.1
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Nikola Topić
OR
77.2
DR
111.3
PTS
3.8
VS
Collin Gillespie
OR
117.3
DR
115.3
PTS
12.6
SG
Aaron Wiggins
OR
101.6
DR
109.8
PTS
9.5
VS
Jordan Goodwin
OR
116.3
DR
112.1
PTS
8.7
SF
Jared McCain
OR
106.9
DR
112.3
PTS
10.5
VS
Jalen Green
OR
98.3
DR
114.5
PTS
17.8
PF
Luguentz Dort
OR
105.2
DR
110.9
PTS
8.4
VS
Ryan Dunn
OR
113.0
DR
113.4
PTS
5.6
C
Branden Carlson
OR
113.6
DR
109.2
PTS
5.3
VS
Mark Williams
OR
132.0
DR
110.5
PTS
11.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Oklahoma City Thunder are the pick to win (71.5% probability). Expected starters — Oklahoma City Thunder: Nikola Topić, Aaron Wiggins, Jared McCain, Luguentz Dort, Branden Carlson. Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie, Jordan Goodwin, Jalen Green, Ryan Dunn, Mark Williams.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 216.56 points, suggesting a moderately paced game with room for both offense and defense to matter. The expected spread (home − away) is 7.76 points in favor of the home side; with Oklahoma City projected to win, they’re expected to hold roughly a 7.8-point edge.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 216.6 Most likely outcome: 216 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Oklahoma City Thunder - Phoenix Suns) 7.8 Most likely outcome: 7 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Oklahoma City’s rating has ticked up slightly (+2.2 over five games) while Phoenix’s has drifted down (-6.4).

Oklahoma City Thunder

1721.5 +2.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-10 Denver Nuggets 1721.5 -14.7
2026-04-08 Los Angeles Clippers 1736.2 +5.9
2026-04-07 Los Angeles Lakers 1730.3 +9.4
2026-04-05 Utah Jazz 1720.9 +1.6
2026-04-02 Los Angeles Lakers 1719.3 —

Phoenix Suns

1502.9 -6.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-10 Los Angeles Lakers 1502.9 -8.6
2026-04-08 Dallas Mavericks 1511.5 +5.2
2026-04-07 Houston Rockets 1506.3 -9.5
2026-04-05 Chicago Bulls 1515.8 +6.5
2026-04-02 Charlotte Hornets 1509.3 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 in last 5
L W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 107 127 -20
Los Angeles Clippers 128 110 +18
Los Angeles Lakers 123 87 +36
Utah Jazz 146 111 +35
Los Angeles Lakers 139 96 +43

Phoenix Suns

2-3 in last 5
L W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Lakers 73 101 -28
Dallas Mavericks 112 107 +5
Houston Rockets 105 119 -14
Chicago Bulls 120 110 +10
Charlotte Hornets 107 127 -20

Game Analysis

Oklahoma City is 2-1 over the last three, with authoritative wins over the Clippers (128-110) and Lakers (123-87) but a heavy loss at Denver (107-127). Those wins show they can close games decisively, though the Denver game reminds you they can struggle against elite offense. Phoenix is 1-2, beating Dallas (112-107) but suffering a pair of lopsided losses to the Lakers (73-101) and Rockets (105-119), which points to inconsistency on both ends. Looking at the projected starting units, Oklahoma City’s five average an offensive rating of 100.9, defensive rating of 110.7 and 7.5 points made per player — a profile tilted toward team defense and balanced scoring. Phoenix’s starters average a stronger offensive rating (115.4), a higher defensive rating (113.2) and 11.3 points made per player, led by Mark Williams’ 132.0 offensive rating. That gap suggests Phoenix can score, but Oklahoma City’s marginally better defensive profile and recent form should blunt that production.

Final Prediction

The Thunder’s recent momentum and steadier defensive profile are why they get the edge in this matchup. Key thing to watch: can Phoenix’s top end scoring (especially Mark Williams and Collin Gillespie) break through OKC’s defensive plans, or will Oklahoma City control the game pace and cover that ~7.8-point margin?

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