NBA 2025-2026: Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Portland Trail Blazers

Home Team
82.4%
VS

Sacramento Kings

Away Team
17.6%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Portland Trail Blazers
PTS 18.2 REB 4.4 AST 7.7 3PM 3.2
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PTS 16.4 REB 3.1 AST 5.2 3PM 2.4
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PTS 26.3 REB 7.2 AST 7.7 3PM 2.1
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PTS 15.1 REB 4.4 AST 2.8 3PM 3.1
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PTS 12.8 REB 11.0 AST 2.2 3PM 1.2
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AWAY Sacramento Kings
PTS 13.2 REB 4.2 AST 4.9 3PM 1.6
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PTS 12.3 REB 3.0 AST 1.9 3PM 2.6
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PTS 12.6 REB 4.1 AST 3.9 3PM 1.7
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PTS 12.5 REB 7.2 AST 1.9 3PM 0.5
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PTS 14.2 REB 7.9 AST 1.9 3PM 0.5
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jrue Holiday
OR
116.1
DR
115.9
PTS
16.2
VS
Devin Carter
OR
99.2
DR
122.2
PTS
8.9
SG
Scoot Henderson
OR
108.4
DR
114.4
PTS
14.2
VS
Daeqwon Plowden
OR
112.4
DR
125.7
PTS
10.8
SF
Deni Avdija
OR
116.6
DR
115.2
PTS
24.2
VS
Nique Clifford
OR
92.7
DR
121.7
PTS
8.4
PF
Toumani Camara
OR
113.4
DR
116.2
PTS
13.4
VS
Precious Achiuwa
OR
113.7
DR
119.0
PTS
9.8
C
Donovan Clingan
OR
129.6
DR
110.0
PTS
12.1
VS
Maxime Raynaud
OR
114.6
DR
121.0
PTS
12.3
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Portland Trail Blazers are the pick to win with an 82.4% probability. Expected starting fives — Portland: Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan; Sacramento: Devin Carter, Daeqwon Plowden, Nique Clifford, Precious Achiuwa, Maxime Raynaud.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The game’s expected combined score is 229.72, pointing to an up-tempo affair with plenty of scoring opportunities. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 14.44, a sizable edge for the home team that this projection applies to Portland, suggesting a comfortable margin if they execute.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 229.7 Most likely outcome: 229 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Portland Trail Blazers - Sacramento Kings) 14.4 Most likely outcome: 15 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

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ELO Rating Trends

Both teams have rising Elo momentum over the last five games, with Sacramento up +10.6 and Portland up +8.5.

Portland Trail Blazers

1518.9 +8.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-10 Los Angeles Clippers 1518.9 +12.0
2026-04-08 San Antonio Spurs 1506.9 -4.0
2026-04-06 Denver Nuggets 1510.9 -7.2
2026-04-02 New Orleans Pelicans 1518.1 +7.7
2026-03-31 Los Angeles Clippers 1510.4 —

Sacramento Kings

1350.5 +10.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-10 Golden State Warriors 1350.5 +12.1
2026-04-07 Golden State Warriors 1338.4 -6.5
2026-04-05 Los Angeles Clippers 1344.9 -6.5
2026-04-03 New Orleans Pelicans 1351.4 +11.5
2026-04-01 Toronto Raptors 1339.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Portland Trail Blazers

3-2 in last 5
W L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Clippers 116 97 +19
San Antonio Spurs 101 112 -11
Denver Nuggets 132 137 -5
New Orleans Pelicans 118 106 +12
Los Angeles Clippers 114 104 +10

Sacramento Kings

3-2 in last 5
W L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Golden State Warriors 124 118 +6
Golden State Warriors 105 110 -5
Los Angeles Clippers 109 138 -29
New Orleans Pelicans 117 113 +4
Toronto Raptors 123 115 +8

Game Analysis

Portland is 1-2 in its last three, beating the Clippers 116-97 but dropping tight games to San Antonio (101-112) and Denver (132-137). That win shows they can defend and control tempo, while the losses expose inconsistency on defense in higher-scoring contests. Sacramento is also 1-2, splitting two games with Golden State (124-118 win, 105-110 loss) before a 109-138 loss to the Clippers, highlighting volatile defense and spotty scoring. Looking at the starters, Portland’s five average an offensive rating of 116.82, a defensive rating of 114.34, and about 16.02 points made per starter — a balanced group led by Deni Avdija’s 24.2 scoring and Donovan Clingan’s strong 129.6 offensive rating. Sacramento’s expected five average a 106.52 offensive rating, a 121.92 defensive rating, and about 10.04 points made per starter, indicating they’ll need improved offense and tighter defense to keep pace.

Final Prediction

Portland’s higher offensive efficiency, better scoring from its starters, and more stable recent form give them the edge. Watch how Portland’s frontcourt (Avdija/Clingan) performs against Sacramento’s defense — that matchup will likely decide the margin.

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